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Grossinquisitor

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  1. Brussel has plans to include a measure of house price inflation in the CPI, as they know house prices can only go down from here. they love to have things that go down in price in the cpi. when they hit bottom they will exclude them again, saying this is an obsolete neasure or something..
  2. He is probably whitewashing money. money he got from 'special inerests' as a reward for his war on terror.
  3. maybe that's the carrying costs for 1 year and they've added this to break even- or something like that. the garden looks like a prison yard with it's 3m brick wall, the house of my dreams
  4. Then the tech stock bubble also never should have deflated, the money supply never really was turned off, so why did the Nasdaq and other stock indices go down 70 % ?
  5. and here is the reason why under basel II required capital for banks is reduced: http://www.norges-bank.no/front/pakke/en/f...006/2006-11-07/ so after house prices have risen 300% in a few years they decide that mortgages are low risk and required reserves for banks can be reduced by approx. 50% If basel II is about reducing risk, why are they so keen on reducing required capital for banks? It's all about driving the sale of credit.
  6. Basel II From January next year there will be new reserve requirements for banks under the Basel II regulations. The reserve requirements will be LOWERED, from now 5% of assets to 2.8%. That most likely means further debt growth and HPI. This will be worldwide, only the US have decided to put Basel II off until 2008. In Norway, where I now live, this was recently discussed in financial newspapers and it was assumed that BAsel II will drive house prices further up in Norway. we already had 18% HPI in the last 12 months http://www.banknet360.com/news/NewsAbstrac...id=1&bi_id=
  7. Maybe some of you will find this of interest. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.ph...ht=aaron+krowne Since 1995 asset price bubbles are popping up left and right, so what happened in that year? Since circa 1995 reserve requirements in the fractional reserve banking system were effectively eliminated. And we all know that the reserve fraction is considered as one of the most powerful tools a central bank can use to adjust the amount of money available to the economy. Banks now implementation retail sweep programs, where they shift funds from an account that is subject to reserve requirements to one that is not and therefore reduce they reserve requirement. This has created a flood of free money and an exploding money supply, with almost no limit to the promissary notes, in the form of various securities, that could be created by banks -- with fees of various sorts -- interest, originating fees, maintenance fees, penalties, and so on. Side effect: interest rates no longer have the big effect on money supply they once had. Of course 95% of the population doesn't know much about fractional reserve banking and thinks house prices go up because land is scarce Money Supply: Dow Jones: house prices UK
  8. July 21, 2006 Credible Inflation Data (for a change) by Paul Tustain It is strongly in the interest of governments that inflation figures stay low, even if inflation itself is not low. An hour or so researching newspaper stories on "Google" should puzzle those who have read that UK inflation is - officially - running steadily on target at about 2.5%. "Since 1996-07, the year before Labour came to power, the average council tax bill will have risen from £525 to £1,053." - The Times - Feb 20 2006. "The UK's biggest energy supplier will raise gas and electricity tariffs by 22% from 1 March 2006. " - www.bbc.co.uk - Feb 17 2006 "A single Tube journey in zone one will cost £3 instead of £2 while a single bus journey will rise from £1.20 to £1.50, said Mayor Ken Livingstone." - www.bbc.co.uk - Oct 2005 "Prices for houses in London were up by 7.2 percent in the three months between November and February" - www.worleconomies.co.uk - "Tesco was the first to announce an increase in its retail milk price of 2.2 pence per litre, and now all of the major retailers have followed suit with increases of between 2 and 4 pence per litre." - www.tumpline.com - 26 January 2006 "Average [water] bills in England and Wales rose by 11.8% in 2005. This time around, the average increase is 5.5%, roughly double UK inflation." - news.bbc.co.uk - 30th March 2006 "The price of a standard UK passport is to rise by 21%" - www.bbc.co.uk - 17 November 2005 "Overall fuel costs for companies were 39 per cent higher last month than a year before, the sharpest rise since 1991, according to figures released yesterday." - The Times - 13 Sep 2005 "Other official data paint a slightly different picture of recent earnings developments. Since June 2005, the ONS has published a new experimental series: the average weekly earnings (AWE) measure [+4.3%]... the factors behind that divergence are unclear at present." - www.bankofengland.co.uk - February 2006 "In 1985 the average annual cost of sending a child to private school was £1,806 compared to £8,388 in 2005, an increase of 364%" - Independent Schools Council (ISC) - August 2005 "The latest data from the ONS says that income tax payments were 7.5 per cent higher in the year to the end of March 2006 than in the previous year. An equivalent measure of National Insurance showed a rise of 5.8 per cent over the same period." - www.telegraph.co.uk - May 2006 "Price of British beef 'to rise by 20%'. The price of British beef is set to rise after exports to Europe resume next week...Increased wholesale prices are likely to be passed on from supermarkets to shoppers, the National Beef Association (NBA) warned. Exports will resume from May 3, finally ending the ban brought in a decade ago to stem the spread of mad cow disease (BSE)." - finance.pipex.com - April 2006 "The average Old Trafford price rise will be 12.3 per cent" - Manchester Evening News -10th April 2006 "the maximum you'll be asked to contribute towards your tuition fees is £1,175 in 2005/06 ..... If you are starting a full-time undergraduate course in 2006/07 you may have to pay a contribution up to a maximum of £3000 a year" - www.aimhigher.co.uk - 2006 "Premium increases very closely follow healthcare spending increases over time. Over the most recent ten-year period (1993-2003) for which data are available, premiums grew at an annual rate of 7.3 percent, while the cost of healthcare services grew at an annual rate of 7.2 percent." - PriceWaterhouseCoopers - www.pwcglobal.com - The Factors Fuelling Rising Healthcare Costs 2006. "Price inflation in the private sector for residential care and some other contracted services (such as repairs and maintenance of buildings) has also been much higher than the retail price index (RPI)." - Hampshire County Council - www.hants.gov.uk - February 2006 "The cost of a UK first-class stamp has risen by two pence to 32p [6.7%]" - www.bbc.co.uk - April 2006 "In the past three years, inflation has risen by 4.6 per cent while the cost of running a house increased by 14 per cent. Rises in mortgage interest payments most contributed to the cost of owning and running a house in 2004/05 rising by 20 per cent to an average of £2,146, according to the research, which is based on data from the Office for National Statistics." - www.aboutproperty.co.uk - March 2006 Inflation's moving target The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has an inflation target of 2.5%. Previously inflation was measured using the 'Retail Prices Index', which was used consistently - so long as interest rates were falling. When rates rose again they quietly switched to focusing on RPIX, which excluded interest rates, and then reverted to RPI when rates turned down. This allowed the most widely reported inflation figure to enjoy - repeatedly - a one way ratchet of cyclically falling rates. The RPI includes neither houses nor retirement income, two of the biggest expenditures which most people have, and the cost of both of them were rising sharply through the 80s and 90s. The CPI Recently the Bank of England switched to the CPI, a European standard. It doesn't include houses or retirement income either. In fact it has an even more convenient mix of data, and consistently reports a lower inflation figure than RPI: "...the RPI covers owner-occupied costs and council tax and the CPI doesn't although it does cover new cars, personal computers and air fares that the RPI doesn't" - www.pcs.org.uk There is a pattern. The owner-occupied costs of plumbers and electricians have been increasing because of many extra costs imposed on their employers, like National Insurance Contributions and increasing Health and Safety costs. Council tax has been rising fast too. On the other hand because of increases in competition from no-frills airlines European air fares have plummeted. Cheating with the numbers Personal computers and cars are interesting too. The statisticians use 'hedonic' computation, which means that product improvement impacts the reported inflation figure. So a basic computer, which doubles in capability every 18 months, is computed as a halving of price even though the price of a basic family computer does not fall at all. In the same way a modern day BMW 7 series (£38,000) on any car criteria greatly outperforms a 1970s Rolls Royce (£50,000 then). The result is that in a statistician's spreadsheet luxury car prices fall steadily over 30 years. In fact a new Rolls Royce has risen from about £50,000 in 1970 to about £200,000, and a top of the range BMW by a similar percentage factor. Yet more exclusions It is getting increasingly silly. The new target is 'Core CPI', which excludes housing, its associated costs and taxes (mortgages and council tax), the capital cost of retirement income, and now fuel and food too! It seems improbable that savers will be impressed by this sort of selectivity indefinitely, unless they believe it useful to measure the purchasing power of savings only by comparison with the tumbling prices of imported Chinese clothing and electronic gadgetry.
  9. one soft breeze will topple that house of cards, no mercy . this is just greed. individuals like that have made houses unafordable.
  10. Sellers are still asking twice the price the paid themselves just 5 years ago. FTB's who get 5% off the asking price don't get a discount, they are ripped off. It is not a buyers market until prices have dropped at least 30%.
  11. This is a stage managed war. The USA announced that years ago when they said they will attack all states that harbor or finance terrorists. For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration believes is pooling resources to change the strategic playing field in the Middle East.... http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/
  12. the easist way is to buy a gold etf like GLD (nyse) which mirrors the price of gold. many analysts think sterling will be very strong in the near future bevcause , rate hikes are likely, it's one of the highest yielding currencies (at least in europe) , oil producing countries have to put the windfall profits somewhere
  13. The BOE obviously inflates M4 money supply to cushion the stock market from higher energy prices (and is robbing savers in the pocess). the ECB does the same, M3 goes parallel with energy prices. HPC is delayed again -increasing money supply boosts asset prices. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1153153247.php
  14. and then the market turns and your deposit is wiped out over night. 6 years of saving in the pockets of the seller , you have cut back on everything so that a slimy boomer can retire 5 years early.
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