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dgul

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Everything posted by dgul

  1. I expect son-of-miras; IMO this is exactly why BTL were allowed to keep base-rate tax deductions. But we're still a bit early. Announcement this Autumn is more likely. For now, we'll get some statements about fiscal stimulus; maybe a few big projects being announced but nothing too specific at this stage.
  2. That's what you do in recessions. You have to borrow to stimulate. The problem is running a structural deficit even when times are good An even bigger problem is building structural problems into the system on some stupid premise*, which then bite you in the ass and are difficult to sort out. (* eg, no more boom and bust, but also the equally idiotic pensions holidays just because things have been good for a few years, but which will ultimately put people off formal pensions schemes and into the BTL dream)
  3. These days they crack the crude pretty much whatever fractions they like. If there is more petrol demand and less diesel they'll just make more petrol and less diesel. That really is the only sensible way for this to proceed. Oh, unless it's only about GDP, in which case it'll be any old modern non-petrol car. This is the crazy thing. The problems with diesel particulates are obvious. Back in the early 2000s they had the choice to push LPG, which would have been relatively better for city centres (at least until electrics became more common, as is happening now). They could even have done something with taxation to encourage lower-mileage city cars to be petrol (small engine) or lpg (larger engine, perhaps all engines), with diesel only for high mileage motorway cruisers and long-distance commercial. But no, they went all out for diesel. Even where it wasn't so financially sensible to have a diesel (low mileage smaller cars) went for the diesels, as they were being promoted through lower tax etc. They're all idiots.
  4. But you do actually get the bit with the ballroom. Just not the library or the billiard room.
  5. See, I don't understand why an internet marketing professional would use a free web template and leave all the rubbish metainformation in. The sort of thing an imbecile would do. And I don't think that much of his content. I mean, it is okay, but he's pushing for a million here. He's not even put the competition answer in as a drop-down, just a plain text field, ffs. Anyway, all that said I think it is worth a punt at 64p per entry*... [* and they don't get a penny of it]
  6. Yup. Quite right. So, how much has UK mortgage debt increased in the last 10 years or so? It hasn't really changed. What about government debt? Increased threefold. This isn't to say that household debt isn't a problem, but rather that household debt (and thus the banks) was saved at the cost of national debt. That is the current bubble. Of course, a change in circumstances will impact the economy, and hard. Retail in general, and cars in particular, will be hit. The volatile stores of value will be decimated (wines, art, classic cars), but I think that houses will be supported.
  7. But what is the speculative bubble in? It was in property. It is now in government bonds and foreign currency (one of which is sterling). What happens when that bubble bursts?
  8. IMO we can't have an effective property crash in the UK at the moment. There is just too much liquid wealth on the sidelines, waiting for a 5%-off bargain. It is completely ingrained now; I've had so many conversations with people who have said that there is only one way to invest, and that they've got money waiting for the right moment -- and they are all keen to extract money from pensions as soon as they've got an excuse. I know this is contradictory -- they're committed to property as the only worthwhile investment class and they're waiting for prices to turn to give them a bargain -- but that is how they think. And there are loads and loads of them. You'd think that the way forward would be to have a crash, to break their confidence -- that should have occurred in 2004 and perhaps 2007... but IMO it is now too late, there is so much belief in property that they'd chase the market down with every fractional reduction, supporting prices, with new entrants coming in with additional support for every fractional reduction. Okay, we might get 10% down, but that only takes prices back a couple of years -- I can't really see us getting back to 2004 prices (when we should have had the crash!), let alone back to 1995 or so. I think that the only move that can (actually, must) occur now is for their wealth to disappear. This is probably currency/inflation related, but might include things like loss of benefits/pension. Now, prices will go down, but IMO we've got about 15 years of slow grind, rather than a sharp shock, and it might be completely hidden by currency/inflation moves.
  9. The underground car park is almost certainly the flood water storage area necessary to get planning at that location. Just thought I'd mention it.
  10. Yes - and that is the sequence. The UK PTB will keep rates low until it is too late. They're not likely to be playing the front-running-the-market game.
  11. Best not to ask others for financial advice -- it has to be your choice. But FWIW for those sort of sums I'd probably employ a local 'wealth management' person (ie, local can keep fees low), at least for a large % of it. Re. selling the business -- look at your core skills. Are you a business builder, creating value out of nothing? Or are you a business runner, keeping track of all the day to day activities to keep the business strong? If the former, be minded to sell and do it again. If the latter, keep with it. I'd say don't overvalue the long term job post sell -- an ex-director isn't a good person to be hanging around a new ownership for too long. If you sell, get a plan and stick with it -- eg, 12 months high level support (sitting with the new directors), 12 months handover, gone by 24 months. You'd probably be best off including this in the negotiations of sale.
  12. Dunno. Depends how they react. Possibly load up on debt first, assuming they'll support debt before the currency, and that wages will rise to make the debt easily affordable. Then again, that approach might bankrupt you. No waiting. Just getting on with life. Individuals, no. Corporations -- possibly. Also, it depends on what other currencies are doing. The assumption is that the next crisis will be something along the lines of currencies and government debt being places to run from, not run to. And I'm assuming that the Euro won't last -- it is too fractured to readily survive. Oh, and don't simply get a Euro account in Germany -- New Deutschmarks (Rentenmark? Reichsmark would probably be taking it too far...) will only be for Germans. There would likely also be currency controls. He pops up every now and then. IMO he's a Cassandra gifted with everything except timing.
  13. IMO the next crisis will last until about 2030. About 1% of the population of the world spend the £ compared with other currencies.
  14. Well, I don't like to mention the g-word outside of its place, but I'm currently moving whatever I can back into it. Not sure there's that much of a hurry (except for Sterling, which doesn't count*) -- should be okay at least to summer. [*I've argued this before -- holding money in Sterling isn't 'safe, not mucking about with all that currency gambling' but is rather putting all your bets on one currency, chosen at random as the one associated with the country you live in.]
  15. The currency crisis hasn't started yet. There is a competition as to who will start first -- Euro and Sterling front running ATM. We'll see who wins later, possibly this year. But in the words of the great Cgnao, if you think you are going to have to panic, it is best to panic first.
  16. Monetary stimulus has run out of steam. It is now the time for fiscal stimulus. Stamp duty would seem to be a reasonable place to start. As I've said before, making some debt payments tax deductible would also meet the requirement. I'd agree with MX9 in that there might also be some tax increases for the wealthy -- but they're not at the point in the cycle where they're trying to balance the books, so they don't need to try to grab too much. The balancing the books part comes later.
  17. Yeah. And you're probably restricted from setting out the bedrooms as Faraday cages as well (would muck up their radiation patterns). I wouldn't like it. Although, thinking about it, the GHz stuff would likely be at the 10th-14th floor, so there probably wouldn't be much radiation pointing directly downwards (unless they really mucked up the beam forming). If I was interested I'd go there with a radiation meter and check it out.
  18. I disagree. The degree requirement is just risk reduction (from the manager in charge of recruitment), in that it will probably weed out those who are unlikely to turn up on time and not do what they're told. Not that this is particularly likely to actually be true, but it is like the old adage about buying IBM -- if you employ someone without a degree then you know you'll definitely be pulled over the coals if something goes wrong, even if your decision making process is faultless. I find this absolutely appalling -- that we expend vast sums of money and time in higher education, only for that education to be ignored in the world of work -- but, like many things about today's society, it looks like we're stuck with it.
  19. Will get seriously bad from Jan 2019, into about 2022. By then there will be better things to moan about, so their moans will be less prominent.
  20. The property market will correct to historic norms for price:income, but the mechanism that this will take isn't clear. There are still many people with lots of money and who believe in the property market, so IMO any falls will be bought into. As for timescales, I'd suggest a long slow decline, mainly hidden by inflation, with the low around 2028 or so, but who knows.
  21. Mentioned in the brochure: I guess the £34k pays a bit of the mortgage. I note 14 floors, lower 4 as bedrooms, 14th as the cupola, 3 used for the telecoms. So, plenty of opportunities to expand upwards into the remaining floors... for those with strong knees.
  22. This is right. The Reuters data is defined as total debt. The tradingeconomics data is defined as only government debt.
  23. They are completely dependent on government largess. Buying shares in them is a bet on this situation continuing.
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