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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by dgul

  1. What about unskilled foreign labour? But then what about companies that export their skilled labour to foreign lands and just don't undertake the work in the UK any more? Or even what about people who refuse to purchase items made using UK labour, and who instead insist on using foreign labour to manufacture their goods? Lots more options for Ms May.
  2. They're just saying what the majority of their voters want to hear. Politics is always thus. But you're right about their choice of baseline - It would be bad enough to measure prices at a rolling 10 year level (inflation adjusted), but to identify the peak of a bubble as the price we're aiming for is crazy. But then, of course, they're not trying to tell me what I want to hear.
  3. Fantastic - you've taken my already brilliant idea and made it even better. The power of collaborative development...
  4. That was visible from the Chiswick flyover. It should have been listed and remain, but it's now in a design museum somewhere. That stretch of road has been responsible for a few advertising firsts - The Wonderbra advert down the road at Hammersmith was removed due to the number of crashes next to it...
  5. It does remind me of the greatest advertising slogan never to be used by the international cartel that is the toothpaste industry: Say ta-ta to tartar! On second thoughts perhaps there is a reason for it not being used...
  6. I think that is the point. You have to have planning and pay rates if you're running a business - but there is an established exemption for people working from their own home. There is no such exemption for renting out this space from another - working from someone else's home. As the rules stand this is the same as renting out a full office.
  7. The high price of property around the world has many side effects - now people are renting out rooms for use by professionals during the day. eg, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35246320 I'm not sure about the effects of this - I think if you rent out a property for business use you need planning and need to pay rates - and there is no 'small landlord' exemption to income tax as for renting out a room for lodgers. I think there might be a HMRC bill coming down the road for people who take part in this...
  8. I think Iran is trying quite hard to be normal at the moment. Their neighbours don't seem happy about it.
  9. Yes. I think it is saying that there aren't enough yuan in Hong Kong (and by association, elsewhere outside of China). This means that people who are short Yuan might be sweating a bit (and that is meant to have been a good trade recently - this might be an Asian version of the Swiss repeg last year). Also anyone with debt in HK in Yuan (but presumably this is a rare situation). Hong Kong bonds denominated in Yuan are all over the place ('dim sum bonds') - but I don't know who'd have been crazy enough to be buying those.
  10. Oh not moaning at you - it is DECC and Bloomberg that is to blame. They should know better... On an unrelated note, but back to global financial crises, have you seen that Hibor (Hong Kong interbank rate for Yuan) is running at 66%? (from 4% a few days ago)... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/01/12/2149849/cnh-hibor-nothing-to-see-here/
  11. That is a massively misleading graph. Not only do you have a currency mixup, and the real tax and VAT changes, but also the RHS has a substantial offset while the LHS doesn't. It looks as though the offset has been chosen to align the curves at July-Dec 2008, so we exclaim something like 'look - they had tiny margins back then and now they're massive' whereas the actual data just shows there is a broad correlation between the two, which is to be expected. This is important - IMO we'll see more of the action in the £ rather than asset prices.
  12. I think they want the pound to be a bit lower, so IMO we'll see a hit to the pound before they raise rates. The question is how much of a hit to the pound. Most people wouldn't notice until it hits them in the head so I'd expect limited action until we get close to dollar or euro parity. Which probably means dollar parity if the euro sinks with us. [This would support house prices somewhat, as measured in £. So ex-London we'd possibly see prices hit in £ only when they get round to raising rates.]
  13. Story on the BBC: Developers that fail to swiftly build properties when planning permission is in place should face stiff penalties, the Local Government Association says. Builders should pay full council tax on homes not built before the original planning permission expires, the body, which represents local councils, said. ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35245313 Seems like a good idea to me.
  14. No - standard politics would be bad news* just after election, good news just before an election. It is too early for Miras. I've stated before that I am of the opinion that there will be some sort of miras introduced at some point. This might be as in other countries, where the miras is for a defined period of time, and possibly only for new mortgages. Restriction to base-rate is a given. I reckon announcement budget 2018 for first relief in pay packets by late 2019, just in time for the election. Earlier is possible if house prices start going south in any significant way. *the current changes are bad news for indebted landlords. Despite the opinions here, it has hardly registered by the vast majority of people, including tenants.
  15. I read this as more of a China story - either that people are currently not feeling affluent enough to buy the iphone (not a problem - demand will return, eventually) or that people aren't desiring the iphone and are instead desiring the fancier android phones (massive problem - a large % of the apple premium is fashion, and if they've not penetrated the China mindset then a large % of the value of apple disappears). But - they're claiming it as a temporary thing, and that demand will pick up later in the year. Might be. But they'd not likely say 'massive problem' publicly...
  16. Funny word 'could' - it means exactly what it says, yet is often used as though it means something completely different (eg, 'will').
  17. £50Bln against a budget of £30bln - so 166% of expenditure Compared with the UK as a whole, £1.56Trln against a budget of £0.76Trln - so 205% of expenditure. Now while I'm against reckless spending, I am in favour of targeted debt expenditure during depressions. It looks at first glance as though Scotland is being relatively careful with it's money - but I guess it depends on what they're spending it on.
  18. Quite possibly. By the quality of his portfolio he's not going to be able to sell easily, and by the detail of his moaning he's not going to be making much, if any, profit come 2020. And the banks aren't going to want to hold on to those properties. What is horrible about BTL as an investment, particularly when you're highly geared and have >£5m in property like AA, it doesn't take much of a loss to drive you into complete bankruptcy. Ed - according to his own figures he's looking at income going from £165k pa to about £100kpa by 2020 - a pretty income so I don't know why is he moaning so much... I don't believe his figures, so I think he can see he'll be much closer to break-even come 2020... (it doesn't take much - when people say £50k in rent a month they tend to mean £43k in rent a month, never £53k in rent a month, if you see what I mean). And he is very sensitive to interest rates - if they go up by 1.5% then he's lost his income (and if he's actually making £43k per month in rent, then +1% interest rates wipes him out come 2020).
  19. You can do what you like, but it would be a risk. The rules aren't tightly defined, and the HMRC can decide that it should have been PAYE on a whim. And it is you, the 'employer' who will be responsible for sorting out all the mess. So if you give your contractor £1000 and say 'there you go, but remember you have to declare it in your tax return' and the HRMC decide that it should have been PAYE, then they'll say 'you have them paid £1000 salary after tax, now you have to pay us the £678 tax and NI (£294 tax at 20%, £176 NI and £208 employer NI). There is no point in arguing - those are the rules. You could try telling the contractor that you made a mistake and ask for some of the money back, but good luck with that, particularly as they'll have now been paid after tax and yippee they'll be entitled to assume they were paid after tax and be entitled to a rebate if they've already paid their tax. If they've each set up as a limited company then the situation is different and you're into the whole IR35 thing.
  20. His numbers don't make sense. His property empire is bringing in so little income that he must own some pretty poor properties. They might be worth something right now (but he's been trying to offload them for some time, so 'worth' is a discussion point, not a fact), but those sort of properties might go to zero if there is a hit to the economy. Ed - I've actually looked them up - yup - pretty poor properties. I guess they might gentrify Motherwell at some point, but I wouldn't bet on it. More than that, his income and costs statements don't align with his statements about the impact of the changes on his operations. But never mind, because he's very much made the point that you shouldn't get into BTL any more. He's now part of the message in making people realise that it isn't a good idea to buy his properties off him. I suppose he might be able to sell all of them to a mystery Chinese buyer. I hear that is all the rage at the moment.
  21. Exactly. What you need is a house on stilts with everything in the air, including car parking and a garden shed. Oh, and have a raised walkway to the raised shops so that you can still buy your essentials etc, and to the raised schools so that the children could still be educated. Or maybe a raised road because who'd want to be walking in that weather. Or you could just not build any additional housing in flood plains.
  22. IMO prices are now going down slowly for the next 20 years. There will be a start of a faster crash in a couple of years but they'll do things to halt it, whatever it takes, possibly miras or similar. So, buy if you want to buy. Don't if you don't. But don't let yourself be swayed by issues of 'investment' or 'savings' - if you want to buy get somewhere nice enough where you think you might be happy.
  23. I suppose, but the Apple support cycle tends to be about 8 years, so that 8 year old mac will probably not be able to run OS X 10.12. And it'll cost quite a bit more than a 7 yr old PC. But probably will run the latest Linux/BSD just fine... If you can bear it.
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