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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by dgul

  1. At the moment DC is still using the standard mechanism to respond to this sort of thing - say the minimum you need to and ride it out*. It might work out for him. But the pressure is mounting - it anything else comes up he'll likely have to move into a more active approach. *I am always astonished at how effective this strategy is. Even for quite bad behaviours, the 'public' have a poor memory and usually just move onto the next thing to moan about. (Where the 'public' is a nebulous concept quite possibly defined by how many newspapers can be sold on the story)
  2. great. So: No shares? Nothing in the family name? Nothing in their children's names? And even after all that - for his father's estate, was there any money hidden away? Is his inheritance greater than it should be due to tax avoidance. The funny thing about politicians is I'm not really that interested in their family affairs. Extramarital sex, homosexual experimentation in the past, etc, etc, don't bother me. But what really bothers me is when they make a political story of something, and then squirm away from it when it turns out that they are dirtier than the rest. DC here is an example*. If he'd not made a fuss about off-shoring tax etc - if he'd said 'that is the way it works' - or perhaps 'that is a private matter for Starbucks' - then I'd say he has a right to now say it is a private matter. He is guilty of the worst sort of hypocrisy and I really don't think he has the moral standing to continue in his position. * another example is John Major with his 'back to basics' campaign. Or Tony Blair pretending to be a socialist.
  3. Osborne Osborne. Indeed - so follow the money. I wonder whose wealth is partially due to someone's dealings beyond the inland revenue. Perhaps someone who has been rallying about the importance of ensuring invisible deals are bought to light.
  4. Interesting - they've been itching for a reason to have a leadership challenge, but everyone thought it would be the EU vote... Another thing - Cameron is leading the 'stay' vote for the right - if he's discredited the stay campaign don't have the same firepower in the rest of the cabinet and backbenchers... (Frankly, GO is useless).
  5. Well, I'd argue with the opposite logic - what idiot would buy a normal house during this upheaval..? Surely the smart thing to do would be to wait a month or two for there to be a bit less competition?
  6. These should be opportunities to develop national skills - we could be leaders in tidal lagoon engineering. Now there might not actually be any demand for such services - but as it stands we're spending the money anyway supporting the Chinese and Germans in consolidating their leadership in such engineering. Don't our leaders know what Keynesian stimuli are for?
  7. Mortgage contracts tend to be okay with lodgers (but they might ask to be informed). It is the renting out the entire property they have problems with.
  8. Thanks for the insight JC - are the salaries in quant land now that good - last time I looked it wasn't quite so lucrative.. I fear that if I was going through the system now I'd try to take the same route. When I was being seduced by the finance industry the equivalent of quants were earning about 2x normal salaries, but it was seen as being a short career, so you had to look at the long term. At 10x salary though, you must forget the long term. But this is the problem in the UK. Teachers are fighting for more money - when a starting salary for a teacher is now about £4k a year more than minimum wage (after tax). A junior doctor will be in the same position - and while they could be on £100k when fully trained and working hard - this is still less than your typical top line city worker. It is our Dutch disease, and it is causing utter havoc in our economy and society.
  9. It really is simple: 'what is the worst that can happen' 'well, you'll be paying 8% interest if interest rates drop, but don't worry bec...' 'stop there - that would break the housing association. We can't take those risks' Instead we seem to have 'what is the worst that can happen' 'well, you'll be paying 8% interest if interest rates drop, but don't worry because that's very unlikely' 'Don't worry about that - that'll be in the future - I'm mainly motivated by decreasing costs in the next 24 months so I can get paid more for being brilliant. I'll probably be in a new job by the time those risks materialise' Over and over again the finance industry seems to kill everything, rather than adding support / reducing risks. What is so so very depressing is that we've trained our brightest and best to go into finance. Just think what we could have had if all that brilliance had gone into something productive. We might have had a cure for cancer, 300mpg engines, innovations in the steel industry that could have resulted in jobs growth, not loss. But no, they all make up stupid derivative contracts or whatever - anything to keep up the finance industry income. And stupidly we just keep on supporting this malaise, thinking that these intermediaries at best (conmen at worst) actually make our society better.
  10. Wasn't this the time where the housing association bosses started getting massive salaries because you have to pay the most to hire the best?
  11. Hmm. You've got to be a bit careful with that. Most bond redemption is rolled back into a new issue of that bond. Buy buying up all the bonds you're going to have problems with funds not having so much money from bond redemption for purchases of new bond issues for some time in the future.
  12. The usual way is to simply omit the details of the place of work from the invoice. My invoices just reference the quote or purchase order (which has all the details). I don't do this to benefit the client or me or anything - just can't be bothered to write any more.
  13. Also, note that you should (of course) invoice in the tax year that makes sense for you. If you do traditional accounts (based on invoice dates) and you've had a good year you might benefit from pushing the invoice into next year.
  14. The funny thing is landlords usually prefer to do cash accounting, where the date of payment defines the tax year, not the date of invoice. So I doubt it'll make any difference anyway.
  15. Thanks for that. So, out of a list of 20 'strategically important companies', 4 actually do something which might be considered strategic - BP, QinetiQ, ARM and Rolls Royce. The remainder are actually just intermediates who feed on others' activities, or just simple providers of services. Great.
  16. Yes that is right - but the average income (wage) for a BTL is only about £25k, with one property (72% of landlords) and about £15k a year rental income after allowable costs (not interest costs). These guys will only lose the W&T allowance. Even at £35k wage they'd only see higher taxes on the last £5k - so less than £1k additional tax. Even for an almost higher taxpayer (£40k, say) with two properties, they'd only be paying several £ks more in tax. It is the over-leveraged portfolio BTLers who will suffer - these could well have tax bills greater than their profits.
  17. Who needs industry when you can build an entire economy out of finance?
  18. The recent changes against BTL have been quite clever - for all the gusto they don't affect the small guy with one or two properties that much. Okay, there is a bit of a removal of W&T allowance (actuals still allowed, of course), and maybe a slightly higher tax bill for those close-ish to the higher tax boundary - but the bulk of the effects will be against higher rate taxpayers. The changes are most likely to affect portfolio landlords and - for all of their threats never to vote Tory again - there really aren't that many of them. The stamp changes will reduce numbers entering the sector - but as we've seen over and over again with government policy, people don't really moan that much about things that they've never had - it is having nice things removed from them that people moan about. All very clever from TPTB.
  19. And for the people who incorporate to get around some of the recent changes - there will be no easy way back from the increased mortgage rates...
  20. Well, it will probably be given a date for introduction at some point in the future... But - no lender will want to lend where there will be a defined change in their lending rules during the mortgage term - so the practical consequence will be that the impact will be felt immediately. More than that - I think the impact will start being felt from today.
  21. well - they can stay with their current provider when their rates revert to standard rate. I guess the options will be: BTLer is well within new LTV and LCR - arrange new mortgage when current one runs out. Rates are likely to be a bit higher because of increased risk processes. BTLer is closer to the new LTV and LCR, or has a large portfolio - could arrange new mortgage when current one runs out, but rates likely to be much higher because of the increased risk. They might choose to remain on their standard rate, but the higher mortgage rates will still likely be lower than their standard rate. BTLer exceeds new LTV/LCR - note this is even if they were okay before and nothing for them has changed. They won't be able to get a new mortgage - they'll have to stay on their current standard rate. Note that the BTL mantra relies on constantly remortgaging - you never want to be stuck on the higher standard rates. BTLer has been really clever and has incorporated - they find that the removal of SME supporting factor for calculating the banks' coverage ratios will make mortgages more expensive for them, and there will likely be less choice.
  22. In the draft statement: But it is only a draft statement.
  23. Indeed. I think the master plan is actually to get a high % of BTLs to sell to new buyers. This keeps turnover and thus transaction based costs high. The difficult bit is to do this while keeping house prices stable. As I've said before, I think that part of this armoury could be the reintroduction of base-rate miras just before the next election. a) - will make it more expensive to re-mortgage for most BTL. Some might even be better off staying on their standard rate (typically about 2x their discounted rate that they keep remortgaging to). There is a question regarding the impact on larger portfolios (more than 4 properties) - some lenders will just comply with the increased standards by offering only up to 4 properties. This said, many of the lenders currently have a maximum portfolio size anyway (although I note that it is typically up to 5 properties - will those with 5 BTLs find the best option is to sell one?) BTL is already dead. This only makes it deader. c) As I've said elsewhere, the current plan looks to stimulate the OO market to take up the demand lost from BTL. The aim is to keep prices stable. Not sure if they'll achieve this.
  24. Well - remember this is just for the affordability assessment - it doesn't actually impact on their costs. But - it will make it more likely that their 'investment' will fall under a higher risk category, which will actually increase their interest rate costs.
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