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Everything posted by jiltedjen
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or more old people means bigger deficits, means more money printing. if you cannot tax the young more, (highest taxes since the 1940’s) you have to reduce commitments. you are forced to inflate them away while understating inflation, and print like hell. meanwhile companies are forced to pay more for the dwindling pool of labour. Labour which has to pay for highest cost of housing in generations. if something is unsustainable, then it cannot be sustained. It’s a bit of a wealth transfer.
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I’m hoping that I will be rock solid with a decent passive income zero mortgage, before inheritance hits. this way: 1. Can survive if I get nowt, should never count chickens, life is not fair, and a LOT can change over 20 years, parents can re-marry, governments could introduce 100% inheritance tax, care home fees, dogs home, etc 2. the money should make the difference from being able to survive to being able to thrive IF it comes in, so retired when I reach 55ish, either frugally or lavishly. 3. my peers who have been living life based upon an eventual windfall to ‘bail them out’, so their ‘win’ is just being able to survive, I rather IF I get anything it’s actually impactful. 4. Clearing debts doesn’t mean retirement, need to have £200-300k invested to actually be able to retire, and for my cohort most of us will be dropping dead slumped over their desks at 69, so in effect the inheritance is in lieu of a reasonable access age to private and state pensions (party why is soo brutal to get nothing now) I would say perhaps 60% of life is out of your control, your a boat going down a river, the river is raging, you can steer a bit to the right or left, just enough to give the illusion of control, but really mostly your just along for the ride. very very few people do well on life due to their own ability, most who think they did it off their own steam were just in right place at right time, and are just lying to themselves. life is deeply unfair. You win some you lose some. But too short to let it eat away at you. I take some peace knowing if it all gets left to my idiot siblings that they will pee it all away in less than 5 years. or it will go straight down the black-hole of racked up debts, swallowed whole. everyone is always their own worst enemy. I can understand people who have aggressively worked hard and saved their whole lives (and been lucky) trying to live through their kids, to give them the start they never had. Living a rubbish life makes you sad when you have seen others having fantastic lives just for the sake of a little help. lost years slaving away. some people start with very little but are super effective and lean with what they have, who could of beaten the world if only they had a few grand more to start with. It’s a bit of a travesty that boomers have funds locked away, when £10,000 means to boomers what £10 means to millennials. there is a strange thing with money, it’s worth so so much more to the young, who have life ahead of them, than some grey haired old fool throwing on top of his pile. I feel the old miss this. £1,000 to 20 year old can genuinely be life changing. How many of us would rather have £20k at 20 than £200k at 50? Which is more effective? why parents needlessly let kids rents when they have deposits to gift? And it’s sat doing nothing. oldies don’t want to admit once you get past a certain level, it’s just mindlessly hoping to buy ‘security’ even if it’s more than could consume in 2 lifetimes. It’s never enough. yet a tiny fraction could help their own family out. “what if the roof needs doing” when you have enough to buy 10 roofs. humans are nuts. And we certainly decline rapidly from our 30’s
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so the benchmark of expensiveness should be when the prime minister was seriously considering putting tanks on the streets due to a collapsing banking system? For fear of us all going feral and killing each other. cool. If anything they should be more expensive! I mean we should go full mad-max when it collapses
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Depends how you see it, is it greed or utter desperation from the 30 somethings trying to get a tiny slice of wealth stolen from younger generations? Would the skipped generation in that scenario actually help their own kids out? or do they just want money for holidays? Do they already own a house which they bought for feck all? the 30 somethings didn’t have opportunity that their parents did. why shouldn’t they get some much needed help? Yet the 30 somethings get seen as evil? I have known a similar situation with a friend of mine. 30 something. Wanted to buy a modest flat. their 90 year old grandparents offered to give them a £20k deposit as a gift. but then their boomer parents parents got involved and put a stop to it, they ‘allowed’ their 90y/o parents to gift £2.5k and loaned their millennial kid £2.5k to be paid back in a year. the boomers bought for feck all, very comfortable, yet hated that their kids were getting THEIR money. so genuine suffering was trumped by the need for excess boomer holiday money. maybe its perspective, but who’s evil/selfish in that scenario?
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Peak boomer death year is 2044 - so 20 years from now. As the peak of the bell curve, some die in 10 years, some die in 30 or even 40 years the peak death age, so peaks deaths per year, is 2044. so peak millennial will be 55 before seeing a penny. some will be ‘lucky/unlucky’ and get it sooner, some will be ‘lucky/unlucky’ and will die before their parents, depends on your perspective. sadly selfishness is a generational trait for boomers, it’s been engrained since youth, in music etc. They were rebelling against an established family values and concern for society. sadly it just happens that the boom happened to be post greatest generation, of civic duty etc. if the boom had happened post 1920’s excess then the boomers would of been rebelling against excess and selfishness, instead of rebelling against good social morals and actually made the world a better place instead of drastically worse. but it’s been a quirk of historical timing, we have been very unlucky with the boom in births creating the boomers and the culture which had lead us to towards terrible situation with housing and hollowed out economy. Generally the boomers and the elites are more or less one of the same, maybe not from the boomers perspective as they can’t comprehend how good they have it. but from a millenials point of view, if I walk down any street with nice houses, it’s always hoards of boomers, new cars, gold plates pensions retired since 55 triple lock. Nice villages which once had kids playing on the streets, and just empty and deathly quiet with just endless rotting grey haired oldies around. either way nothing will change soon. the whole basis of the article is talking as if the boomers are imminently going to pop their clogs, but really we might as well forget about any meaningful change for at least another 15 years. we will have a continuous rotting and decay in society until a real adult generation takes charge, and that won’t be ‘boomer-lite’ gen X but elder millennials. Thankfully we will still have a framework to build upon post boomers, I can see the UK being strong enough to bear another 20 years of boomer rot, and still be able to hold together to rebuild afterwards. the history books won’t be kind, they will be truthful and factful. Every boomer contribution will be against the backdrop of what it actually meant. the social change and ‘me’ generation and destruction of family values, will be spoken of against what hell was wrought on their children, the massive increase in broken families, and destruction of the economy.
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personally I don’t think the boomer wealth will smoothly transition to the millennials. there will be a few who do get lottery wins due to having very poorly parents, at an early enough point of life. But many millennials will be well into their mid 50’s or 60’s before seeing a penny. Average millennial is now mid 30’s. The ‘grand dying’ won’t happen for another 20-30 years yet. and of course many will get nothing. also the erosion of services over the next few years as the system buckles and strains trying to support the gilded generation taking out far more than they ever put in, will naturally lead to deficits. The money will be clawed back via higher inheritances taxes etc. it’s inevitable. If all the boomer all suddenly started dying on mass at 70 (15 years younger than they actually will die) then I could see an argument for tensions rising in millennials in their 40’s as the lottery of life cashes out, and many can stop working, while others are left to linger on working to 70. Especially when Facebook linked. Seeing all those sunny days and holidays you would miss out on, just as your work mate who retired got parents money. That would sting. but on the most part, people won’t be too upset if it doesn’t happen on mass. and it’s not like a load of aged jealous 60 year old millennials will be much of a political force when boomers do finally shuffle off their mortal coil at 85. the level of hate directed at the boomers was unique to that generation. it will die with them. perhaps it might mean we can move on to less obvious ‘wrongs’ to right politically. when the boomers thin out the ‘right wing’ voters will die out also. we could rejoin Europe, and rebuild the ruined UK. quality of life should improve for all. probably won’t see another boomer selfishness style generation for 2 or 3 generations after millennials. It would be time to heal for a bit.
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Gold strategy in the current economy
jiltedjen replied to Lepista's topic in House prices and the economy
I sold my silver on eBay auction. Was fairly hassle free, ended up selling to another silver selling eBay shop. almost got spot price. just took pictures with vernier calliper and kitchen scales for size and weight. some eBay fees yes, but was smooth. depends how much you need to sell. -
Even slightly lower rates will juice the stock market. The search for yield will start up with a vengeance. tricky as the big wait for rates to drop is meaning loads of loans are waiting to be taken out the day rates drop. lots of demand pent up. going to be up and down for a few years. As it swings to bouts of inflation etc.
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The middle class is dying in the UK
jiltedjen replied to debtlessmanc's topic in House prices and the economy
Personally I think it’s started to happen, the slightest bit of strain with the cost of living and interest rates has started to punish all but the most determined middle class. All the working class playing at being middle class, using debt as a tool to maintain the illusion are being found out, they don’t have the financial acumen, or risk mitigation strategies of more learned people. you can have all the trappings of middle class, but not be accepted in those circles if you don’t have the class to back it up. debt has been soo horrific recently. It’s priced out the sensible, and just allowed chavs to overextend on 35 year terms at 6 times incomes, leap-frogging even decent earners who were only willing to borrow 3-4 times income on 15–20 year terms. we do need a cleaning out, we do need people to lose houses. But all these useful fools are generating profits for the banks. At least it will clear out in a generation, chavs having to put everything into the mortgage to keep the house (including stopping pension contributions) are not creating generational wealth. there are plenty of YouTubers who point this out also. There will be millions of kids horrified to find out that it’s all been a bit of a lie on their parents part. houses became debt traps to flog to mugs. thankfully due to the amount of overextending the chavs need to do to buy, it leaves nothing for doing up the house, so they generally have to buy ‘finished houses’ which still leaves some room for outdated wreaks for the middle class (who then do have the ability to update). just adds a lot of steps for the true middle class for something that should be easier and cheaper. -
I know a very successful cow and sheep farmer. you need a lot of land and a lot of scale. They even have holiday cottages also, camping barns etc. seriously hard work, even have tie ups with veteran collages to work experience during the busy birthing seasons. It’s very industrial, it’s not messing about, it’s very financial and using all the government schemes etc. do you know how expensive tractors are?!? Talking £200- £450k for a decent one. there are also a lot of smaller farms, which are now non viable, perhaps inherited, from a past generation who used to get good prices for wool and milk. It’s all accounting really, either you expand to make it viable, or live like a poor person, or you sell up. lingering on is basically not admitting that you’re doing it for the lifestyle. That you’re too afraid to work an actual job. Plenty could sell up for £1m with all the land, and find something else to do. some tenant farmers manage to acquire land. But it’s hard work. you will be solid muscle if you’re doing it right. very very fit and active. it’s also a strange one, on paper my friend is by far the richest person I know, worth millions. But that’s all he knows. would never sell up. it’s a vocation. it’s his life. it’s growth for growths sake, it’s for passing on the same life to kids. there is no end to the cycle. a life of labour. but I guess it is a lifestyle. there are glorious days, status etc. Even some quiet periods. But never holidays for more than a short weekend. there’s lots of free labour when your other farming mates get ill and you work their farm also to keep them ticking over and they do the same if you go ill. sometimes I think it’s a life I want. But in reality it’s not. being a farmer is a bit like being institutionalised. it’s all you know.
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The middle class is dying in the UK
jiltedjen replied to debtlessmanc's topic in House prices and the economy
For the last 30 years many working class have wrongly assumed they have become middle class. and spent to prop up that image. being middle class is quite a hard achievement in reality, and it’s quite hard to lock down, it’s a mixture of some class, professional career, owning a reasonable house (without crushing mortgage) having some cultural knowledge of history economics, politics etc. to some extent a little bit like upper class you have to have a little bit of a family link also, what your dad did also matters. You need money to flow towards you with investments and not away with debt. Given that many of us had real middle class boomer parents, to try and maintain that social level as a boomer kid has been crushingly hard. I just spend the last 15 years moving from basically falling into working class to lower middle class. it takes a while to pull ahead of the chavs and working class around you. Probably another 5-10 years before I’m firmly middle class. like it or not some people will always pull ahead, while plenty don’t have what it takes to avoid debt, gambling, drinking, or will to learn and read broadly. being middle class is also knowing we have a lot more in common with working class than upper class also. The divide between working class and middle class is much much smaller than the gaping chasm between middle and upper. there is plenty of working class people with tattoos, massive TV’s not owning a bookcase, grey furniture who think they are middle class, but never will be. ‘Stuff’ has become cheap so people try to dress better than their status, but you can spot chavs a mile away, its accent, intelligence how loud you are. and a million of other ‘give away’ factors, some of which are hard to describe. Also it’s fine to be working class, most of the country is. to know your place, and be top tier in your pond is better than being bottom tier in the next higher up pond. seen plenty of chav kings in white land rovers, tattoos etc. they don’t give a toss that people with taste judge them, they just want to be a baller in their pond. and fair enough. Like a pig in sh*t. many many working class see their parents house being worth lots, and assume they have cracked being middle class, but the whole ‘die with nothing’ argument is massive in the working class boomer circles. Or limited financial planning means downsizing to release funds is the only viable option. plenty will find themselves firmly locked into being working class for many generations to come. upper class is something your born into, or lucky enough to be knighted etc. for the most aggressive social climbers its takes at least 2 generations of maintaining that to build up money and funds to send kids to the poshest of schools to marry into it. But unless your parents just spent their whole lives setting you up to have a ‘stab’ at it, there is zero chance. they are the elite. They live in a world removed from most of ours. fantastic but also quite highly pressurised, with high expectations placed upon them. learning to be a doctor in Cambridge for example, won’t buy the lifestyle you might otherwise expect, even with family money and support these day for the upper class. Yet the expectations remain the same. That feeling of losing position can be crippling. it only take one lazy son or daughter and it’s all lost. many in that class when faced with just becoming plain middle class or even working class would rather murder suicide their family and themselves and burn the house down, than face the life many of us live day to day. that’s how low we are to them. doesn’t that really make you think? our lives are seen as literal hell to others. really we should of had a revolution deep in our history. removed engrained excessive family wealth. broken those chains. in countries where this did happen, like Germany and France and the Nordic countries, the middle class have a far greater share of the wealth, wages and benefits remain higher to this very day. in some part all working and middle class are still surfs to our ruling class. UK is very much a bit of a closed shop when it comes to social progression. It’s possible to become middle class and more respectable but it’s hard. But that’s it, and it’s getting harder and harder with each passing generation. -
The issue for many, was that without kids you can do a ‘non-job hobby business’ while telling everyone you’re a business owner. you can tick along. where the Mrs is actually the real bread winner, and you can say things are just ‘slow’ for now. but it all starts to fall to bits when it’s time to have kids, and basically you don’t earn any actual money. I find it incredible that soo many live for so long ‘being their own boss’ yet never seemed to be forced out of that situation. it’s like the easiest option in life, just pretend it’s viable, have lie ins, or days off, work one day in 10. Myself after having worked for 15-20 years for other people in actual real employment, with all the nasty bosses, office politics, stress, early mornings, commutes, paid well yearly but not actually that much take-home per hour (if you work it out) I find it incredible that many do work the ‘doss about’ life. dont get me wrong, real business owners have the hardest option, who work 12 hour days, who continue to grow, expand and adapt, who push themselves harder than any actual corporate boss. I don’t envy those, and I truly believe they earn every penny and hard fought for. but I find human laziness to be astonishing in hobby job companies, if I had one of those I would work out it’s non viable pretty quickly and get a real job. I guess there are many who find a route in life of least resistance, using their dad’s land, or a Mrs who just accepts your lies, or is supportive to a fault. I guess many just don’t have to worry about doing the hard graft, and being talked down to, or berated etc. I guess many humans will seek out easy lives and try and maintain that as long as possible. just hard for me to comprehend living an unsustainable life for the sake of comfort, I wouldn’t sleep at night.
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plenty of ‘business owners’ out there who don’t really even tick over. the issue is one day they will earn £600 and then nothing for 7 days either side. So how much do you think that individual thinks their labour is worth for a day? Well £600 they never seem to average the good days out over a week. Yet talk down full time workers as mugs. ”don’t even get out of bed for less than £75 an hour” there are three types of workers 1. those who set up their own business, and work seriously hard and stress, and push themselves 2. those who have hobby jobs, and lie to themselves 3. those who work for others, smarter ones paid more thicker ones paid less.
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Seen a slew of Reddit posts, all fearing imminent rises in their mortgage rates (all on super low current fixes). some talking about not being able to cope. the crunch point come mostly over this summer, plenty of people who remortgaged in the last 6 months, has opportunities to fix when rates were lower, so very few had the large % increase like those remortgaging this summer. Also plenty who came of 5 year fixes in the last 12 months didn’t have the 1% rates from that long ago anyway. the true pain is concentrated in those both who both got the lower rates, and bought the covid peak (extended to the max in FOMO panic) AND missed out on being able to lock in rates as they rose rapidly. its a fairly finite section of buyers. But is a very concentrated pain. The ability to extend mortgage rates to 30+ years won’t help those who already bought on those terms, however there is always interest only, the mighty can kick. its going to cause some serious pain at X point in the future. BUT that’s the future so who cares? my personal idea of hell, renting from the bank forever.
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Yields Crumbling as rate cuts priced in
jiltedjen replied to Stewy's topic in House prices and the economy
All on pension/adult social care. In so many words. Benefits for boomers. the waste in public institutions was always there, call it a baseline of waste, however the weight that boomers are putting on society will cause fractures. Labour will up tax rates further for sure. but it won’t help. ultimately we need to cut the amount of money thrown at the richest cohort, the actual figures (on an individual level) are not high in comparison for other countries, but those countries also didn’t hollow out their economy for the sake of enriching a single generation. need to rapidly means test pensions, which would naturally slash the payments to most boomers (having most of the UK’s share of wealth). why should I be taxed soo highly when I can’t get a state pension until I’m long since dead? (Basically state pension default). whilst suffering from high house prices, and a salted earth economy? -
Are you in a DINK relationship?
jiltedjen replied to NoHPCinTheUK's topic in House prices and the economy
Currently DINK and mortgage free. Reached the time of life to have kids. I planned to have a younger wife when I was partner hunting back in the day, so it gave me a few more critical years to get my sh*t together. Currently collecting dividend shares to cover as higher % as possible of her contribution to bills. the idea being that we can still save fairly heavily even after she reduces/stops work and we have kids. and can keep the savings snowball going. these days it’s critical for millennials and gen-Z to seriously invest/save as the reality is state pension will be closer to 75 for us, and private maybe around 65 (many won’t be able to afford to retire on personal pension alone) it is scary, but manageable, for our situation it’s fine, building this additional income stream will help. we live very frugally and don’t see joy in material things. i have seen how horrific having kids have been to many of my cohort financially. many millenials as DINKs live a pretty nice life of disposable income, buying watches and cars on finance and posh holidays, but as soon as they have kids that’s the crunch point of ‘oh my god our generation is screwed!’ Comes into play. with kids, bills, mortgage/rent, lost income or childcare costs, it just does not add up at all. Most just have to get into quite serious debt. it’s a hellish life, and I think in those situations the kids also suffer, it’s an unhappy home. thankfully I feel like all my 20’s and early 30’s have lead me to this stage in life. where we can almost comfortably have kids. If we can hold together this tight ship I might even be able to retire at 55. I have 20 years of growing investments until then. -
Seems to be doing the rounds now. methinks councils know full well that massive amounts of people live on sites full time instead of 11 months of the year, as their only residence, and turn a blind eye (knowing they would be on the hook to house these people otherwise).
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China plots to flood the West with cheap cars
jiltedjen replied to fellow's topic in House prices and the economy
This I agree with. a bit like shrinkflation, they have been selling rubbish cars for premium prices, same cheap parts as their budget ranges. and budget ranges are still crazy high prices. too many variants also. think in the west we are too weighed down by massive top heavy businesses, and pension scheme commitments. bring on competition. the west all just look at each others offerings are all in price ranges to set their own price category, between themselves, robbing consumers. looking forward to having better made cars for 30% the price. maybe then we can get westerns manufacturers cutting out the top heavy management and defaulting on unfair pension schemes for the oldies, and start to be leaner and make higher quality cheaper cars. we can still beat China once we cut out the greed and excess profiteering of poor management and short-termism is chronic with western manufacturing. -
I don’t mind my nation grid dividends. i mean you can’t beat them join them? also it’s a captive market, people are not really forced to buy inflated tech shares, but need power generally not to freeze to death, same goes with a lot of ‘safer’ investments I think the UK is horrifically unfair and unequal, but eventually you cross the threshold for the unfairness being in your favour instead of acting against you. the UK problems would take generations to repair, there is zero will, decline is baked in.
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If HPC Forum had to form a Coalition Government..
jiltedjen replied to Sackboii's topic in House prices and the economy
what about a bonus role in the independent BOE? who would take the lead there? -
Spring Budget 2024 (Complete Hunt Guide)
jiltedjen replied to Pmax2020's topic in House prices and the economy
When does the 2p cut kick into our pay packets? -
Spring Budget 2024 (Complete Hunt Guide)
jiltedjen replied to Pmax2020's topic in House prices and the economy
British S&S ISA additional £5k seems sensible! -
I think by not teaching financial education it gives the smart kids (turning into adults) a way to escape the sins of their parents. If your parents pissed up their advantage in life then basically you are locked into your new lower class. However, due to everyone else in your new lower class doesn’t have a clue about money, and you learn yourself, it develops into a step to progress again and escape your class. if everyone has decent financial education then where would the advantage be for smart kids? yes you get a slightly better job, but work no longer pays. it’s all related to assets. you don’t want competition within your cohort, for said assets, as it’s vital to progress. it’s also fair, as everyone has free information to learn and make choices for themselves. the poors just as much as the future rich, the only difference is ‘will to learn’ I think if everyone was taught financial education you would end up with a less stable society, where the most deserving have no ‘pathway’ to progress. when that happens you get strong unions with clever leaders, as those leaders have not been able to progress in life. society is about allocating work and assets to the most deserving of each generation, and it’s important for stability to maintain that. equally you instability when the mean bulk of the deserving cannot access said assets as it’s all been too accumulated either into a tiny elite or the oldies.
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Spring Budget 2024 (Complete Hunt Guide)
jiltedjen replied to Pmax2020's topic in House prices and the economy
- Need more support for people with child’s, or to encourage more people to have kids to stop the baby bust. - the tax scale needs to be made steeper but starting at a lower amount for lower paid, rich should pay more. - remove triple lock and instead change it to a locked fraction of average workers pay, so the oldies vote for the greater good instead of themselves, all the freebies need means testing for the old - army and air forces need a boost - taxes should be higher on consumption and lower on earnings. - all forms of second (or more) ownership should be heavily taxed, including holiday cottages -
The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads
jiltedjen replied to NatterJackToad's topic in House prices and the economy
Don’t go. your the pensions guy. I have seen a decline in the forum also, I think it’s coincided with increased computer used in the retired population. Every day we get not very subtle racism, which i think has been ‘egged on’ by the tories appealing to the right of their party. Some threads could be straight out of the daily mail comment section. government has been pushing the ‘blame everything bad on a tiny minority’ button and plenty of people have lapped it up. we seem to have stopped picking up younger posters to replenish the ranks also to keep some kind of balance. guess many just don’t consider a forum these days, even car forums are ghost towns mostly. it was nice to have a forum where pretty much anything goes, and we would almost self regulate. The racist loonies would have been shut down pretty quickly, but now they are feeding off each other. many many times people have posted on here with extremely prophetic posts, which have been well before the curve, and then 2-3 months later the media all has similar head-lines. yet the older posters don’t like that we are not blaming the immigrants and post some offensive half arsed reply, completely discouraging interesting discourse. this forum could be like coffee shops in the 17th century where ideas and politics were discussed, futures were divined etc. Bitcoin thread is an example of this, but many others are also. Where a few sane voices endured against a wave of jealously, and old people calling it a scam. we have discussions on what the future probably holds for each generation, yet people get upset as it doesn’t fit their world view. But much like investments, you make money on what actually happens, not what you would like to happen even if it’s a bit grim. its a shame that the few ‘free thinkers’ who have interesting thoughts are shut down for emotional (thick) posters who just drag out the same line and tired argument without merit, much like football fans repeating the same phrases due to lack of intelligence or critical thinking “we need to talk about immigrants” I mean please? there are far greater social-political-economic-demographic things to talk about. giving in to hate just shuts down conversations and interesting ideas. Again the bitcoin thread is an example of that, several of us have made serious money, as we had our hands held back in 2013 or earlier and asked questions, and were in discussions, watched the videos posted. Those who had an open mind did well. these days if Bitcoin started again, we would be drowned out by oldies saying it’s rubbish.