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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Big_Bad_Bear

  1. Indded, drawing all her cash and paying off debt would be a bad move if she still has debt left over. Most businesses fail because of cashflow problems, not profit problems. She is right to keep a float of cash. Once the wolves are at your door, it's all downhill. If you can pay them, you can buy time (and you are buying because it costs big time). It's better than the alternative though. The job market is indeed grim and although I have been hiring lately, I almost feel I am exploiting people because I am getting people with superb skills at close to minimum wage. That's the way the market is though and business is tough. I hope personally to have some kind of bonus scheme for my employees tied to gross profits in some way. The fact is that for any basic minimum wage job I advertise, I get over 200 CV's and get to take my pick. Sad but true and it's only going to get worse.
  2. We've got 3-5 years of falling house prices ahead of us. Wait and buy once the recovery is confirmed.
  3. I left this forum a good while back as I got tired of the focus on miro economics and bulls and bears siezing on every piece of news to prove their point. Now, I'm firmly in the bear camp but figured it would take a while for the market to stutter and finally turn. We are not talking weeks here. We are talking probably 2008 before we get any serious downside. I read with a wry smile the same bull comments I read at the end of dot com. I too had ridden dot com all the way up and yes, maybe I turned bear a little too early but in the end, we made stacks on the way down too. The perma bulls lost it all. I see now that as the market is going to keep rising that the silly buyers consider themselves as the 'smart' ones. Why? Because their point has been proved. The market is still rising. Maybe, but what will they do now? Keep buying? Really? Are they going to keep pouring OPM into an over-valued asset? Will they do that or will they consolidate their risk and look elswhere? I fear the former. That's just bad investment. In my opinion, we are now at the top of this market. Time will tell but I sold my house in 2003 for £195k (paid £71k in 2000) and it's just sold again for £202k. Hmmm. Would have done better in a savings account. Did I miss the top? Probably by a few grand but I got near. The problem is that the longer this bubble lasts, the harder will be the fall. It's inevitable really. the correction will, as always, be as strong as the boom. We have built an economy on debt. Itwill only last so long before it all goes boom and I see real signs now. Retail is looking a bit poorly and credit is tightening. Get ready for a grim 2007 before all hell breaks loose.
  4. Efficient market. Hmmmmmmm. Ever heard of fear, greed and rampant speculation? I'm a follower of the 'blessed stocks' method. Some stocks are blessed by the market and will react well to bad news and better to good. Others are cursed and will react flatly to good news and plummet on bad. It's a matter of identifying which are which and building a balanced portfoilo either way. Quality will out in the end, despite the cities best intentions. For instance, I was short MONI for the last few months because it's a crud stock. My risk management strategy denied me the big profit in this case but it shows how badly cursed stocks react to bad news. Imagine if that had been SHEL or BP. Down 2% maybe? Get the idea? The efficient market is a theory and should stay as such. It has no place in the real world.
  5. Pretty funny this one. I had it short from just over 600p with a target of 5.15. When it hit 500p the other day I put a trailing stop on it at 5.15 in the hope of further falls. Anyway, my stop got taken out and then I see this. What a pay day that would have been! Still, made some money on it and you have to smile and move on sometimes. A pile of poo if there ever was one. Can't believe people got conned second time around. Still, it's made me a packet sinece 2000. Junk stock. Probably still a short now although watch for those 'bargain hunters'.
  6. Tax I should think. Spread betting has no tax implications whatsoever, even for professional traders. I have that in writing from the IR. Many people will tell you that professional gamblers can be taxed but the truth is that the IR go after the betting companies and ignore the traders. Why? Well, consider that 90% of traders lose money, they could claim those losses against their other income. So, if you can make money spread betting, it takes some beating as a job. Today, for me, was payday. RIO, MONI, SDR all taking a bath over the last week. Had to wait for it long enough though.
  7. Right click the instrument and go for 'New Order'. You should be able to change the order type to limit or stop there. A limit order is to take the bet out at a target price in your direction, a stop is the opposite. So for a short, you can set a limit lower than the current price and a stop higher. OCO orders allow you to place a stop and limit and the bet will be closed whichever is hit first. So you may short at 100p and set an OCO to buy at 110 or 80. That way you either lose 10 points or win 20 and the positon is closed. I don't use them myself although I used to with bare index trading (too old for that now). There are 2 types of stop/limit. GTC is good till cancelled which will sit there until you do something about it. Daily will expire at the end of the day. Be aware that quarterly stops only work for that instrument. So, if you had long BARC March and a BARC March stop, when the bet rolled over to June Barc, your stop would dissapear. This does not apply to cash/daily bets. You can view your stops/ limits under the 'pending orders' tab and cancel them from there if you wish. Also, make sure you cancel the stop after manually closing the position or it will still activate and give you a position you didn't really want (he said from bitter experience). Good luck
  8. Cheers, always nice to have info from those in the know. My long GSK/short AZN preference is a pure hedge based on the fact that the market LIKES GSK more than it does AZN. Thats the most important thing in the short term. My hope is that GSK will outperform AZN over a certain period. I'm not that bothered about the actual market performance of the sector. As I say, I'm not in the hedge at the mo. I want to see how the market deals with the recent results for a month or so.
  9. I always use quarterly bets for longs to avoid the 7%. You do pay roll over but wise trading can mitigate this. Watch out for those drug stocks, they are very news led. I agree that AZN looks a dead duck, particularly with all the generic drugs coming along but beware. I like a long GSK, short AZN hedge when the figures permit but I won't be doing it yet.
  10. I have short PRU and have had to put up with some pain of late but got paid today! I like to run my portfolio as a hedge. At the moment I have more shorts than longs so the last couple days have been welcome. I like to be long FTSE 250 shares and short 100 shares as it gives me an edge at the mo. I will adjust my portfolio to be long or short biased depending how I feel on the market. At the mo I think shorts may be in for the foreseeable and then a bounce mid to late April. We'll see.
  11. ANswer to both questions. I said 'most' as I am unaware of all companies policies. I would assume they all do it but didn't want to be flamed! As for buying xdiv, yes it can be a good policy as the market has a price memory to some extent and will quickly forget the xdiv adjustment. If a share always hangs around 600p but drops 20 on xdiv, it is likely to return to it's old range sooner or later, ceteris paribus.
  12. But we shouldn't under-estimate the yanks. There seems to be an idea that the dollars fall is out of their control, whereas I suspect they are behind the whole thing. They police the world and now we must pay for it. As businessmen, they are smart and utterly ruthless. If anyone thinks the US economy is about to fall, they may be dissapointed. While other countries see devaluationas the ultimate sin, the Americans will do it on a whim. Look and learn. Maybe buy the S+P as well.
  13. I would also point out that most spreadbet companies adjust your opening price for xdiv. So, shorts do not benefit fom them, even though the price fall may look spectacular. eg. You short at 100p and the next day the xdiv adjustment is 10p. Your opening price is 90p so you don't gain from the event. Most people don't know that. All I can say is that spreadbetters should watch their wednesday statements to see their true positions for xdiv shares.
  14. Remember that these are results based on the past, not the future so they may be better than people expect. Also, there will be comment on the future prospects of the company and this is largely down to the optimism of the board. They may feel bullish and predict a strong outlook. Doesn't mean they are right, but it'll have an effect on the price. To me, it looks like the results will be bad and it'll fall but I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole! My shorts on BB., SDR and DXNS are doing far too well for that. Tights stops on all of course. BB. looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Maybe.
  15. I got 250. It said I was god. Do I win a prize?
  16. Ridin' down the highway Goin' to a show Stop in all the by-ways Playin' rock 'n' roll Gettin' robbed Gettin' stoned Gettin' beat up Broken boned Gettin' had Gettin' took I tell you folks It's harder than it looks It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll If you think it's easy doin' one night stands Try playin' in a rock roll band It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll Hotel, motel Make you wanna cry Lady do the hard sell Know the reason why Gettin' old Gettin' grey Gettin' ripped off Under-paid Gettin' sold Second hand That's how it goes Playin' in a band It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll If you wanna be a star of stage and screen Look out it's rough and mean It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll It's a long way to the top If you wanna rock 'n' roll Well, it's a long way It's a long way, (they tell me) It's a long way, such a long way
  17. For gods sake take it easy. Get your trading right before you commit serious money. Don't let these words come back to haunt you. Good luck and remember, you are up against the finest minds in the world in a battle for your money.
  18. Excellent post. Sums it up perfectly. The key thing I have learned is don't dabble and don't become an investor unless you intend to do that. ie. Never turn a short term trade into a long term one. Secondly, wait for the good chances and hit them hard. Otherwise, go to the park. Nothing makes a trader feel better than being all cash.
  19. Absolutely. Follow the money and try not to call tops and bottoms unless it's very clear. Prices always move further in the direction they are going than you expect. This is how most people lose because they call the turn too early and then panic out of the losing position just before the actual turn, only to see they were right in principle. We've all done it time and again. It's hard to short a share that has fallen for 2 days running because it was so much higher 2 days ago. But momentum plays are the best way for the small time investor.
  20. By the way, I don't like Yahoo charts. They are always behind the game. Take PAG, it's 436 but you don't see that on the chart. I like FT.com for long term analysis or ADVFN for up to the minute stuff.
  21. Short SDR at 775. Up big time on results but it's a nowhere stock. Possible upside to 800 where I will bin it. Long term target 650.
  22. I'm out of PAG now but may look to short it in the near term as it's a bit of a duffer. Timing, is everything though. I think it's 50/50 bet right now whether the bounce continues or gives up. Then again, who knows?
  23. Well, they're not fools if they buy it and it goes up. As long as they take profits on the way down. Odds on it'll fall at some point, but when? My prediction is that the biggest falls will come just after all the amateur shorts have been stopped out.
  24. Been looking into CWD and my thoughts are that this is a very risky play indeed. Potential for big downside but also for more upside. The market has no memory of this stock so it's a free game. As a short, to me, it looks terrifying. Why not short something that's actually falling? Just a thought.
  25. I see PAG is having a nice hard bounce today. Up nearly 5%. Stopped me out anyway but I banked a tidy profit. Stocks can go either up or down, so in theory it's 50/50. Throw in a bit of technical analysis and sound reasoning and anyone should have an edge. But still, 90% of people lose their money in the market. Then again, 90% of people will lose all their money betting on a coin. It's a fact of human psychology and is the first barrier to cross in order to make money.
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