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House Price Crash Forum

Big_Bad_Bear

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About Big_Bad_Bear

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  1. Indded, drawing all her cash and paying off debt would be a bad move if she still has debt left over. Most businesses fail because of cashflow problems, not profit problems. She is right to keep a float of cash. Once the wolves are at your door, it's all downhill. If you can pay them, you can buy time (and you are buying because it costs big time). It's better than the alternative though. The job market is indeed grim and although I have been hiring lately, I almost feel I am exploiting people because I am getting people with superb skills at close to minimum wage. That's the way the market
  2. We've got 3-5 years of falling house prices ahead of us. Wait and buy once the recovery is confirmed.
  3. I left this forum a good while back as I got tired of the focus on miro economics and bulls and bears siezing on every piece of news to prove their point. Now, I'm firmly in the bear camp but figured it would take a while for the market to stutter and finally turn. We are not talking weeks here. We are talking probably 2008 before we get any serious downside. I read with a wry smile the same bull comments I read at the end of dot com. I too had ridden dot com all the way up and yes, maybe I turned bear a little too early but in the end, we made stacks on the way down too. The perma bulls los
  4. Efficient market. Hmmmmmmm. Ever heard of fear, greed and rampant speculation? I'm a follower of the 'blessed stocks' method. Some stocks are blessed by the market and will react well to bad news and better to good. Others are cursed and will react flatly to good news and plummet on bad. It's a matter of identifying which are which and building a balanced portfoilo either way. Quality will out in the end, despite the cities best intentions. For instance, I was short MONI for the last few months because it's a crud stock. My risk management strategy denied me the big profit in this case but it
  5. Pretty funny this one. I had it short from just over 600p with a target of 5.15. When it hit 500p the other day I put a trailing stop on it at 5.15 in the hope of further falls. Anyway, my stop got taken out and then I see this. What a pay day that would have been! Still, made some money on it and you have to smile and move on sometimes. A pile of poo if there ever was one. Can't believe people got conned second time around. Still, it's made me a packet sinece 2000. Junk stock. Probably still a short now although watch for those 'bargain hunters'.
  6. Tax I should think. Spread betting has no tax implications whatsoever, even for professional traders. I have that in writing from the IR. Many people will tell you that professional gamblers can be taxed but the truth is that the IR go after the betting companies and ignore the traders. Why? Well, consider that 90% of traders lose money, they could claim those losses against their other income. So, if you can make money spread betting, it takes some beating as a job. Today, for me, was payday. RIO, MONI, SDR all taking a bath over the last week. Had to wait for it long enough though.
  7. Right click the instrument and go for 'New Order'. You should be able to change the order type to limit or stop there. A limit order is to take the bet out at a target price in your direction, a stop is the opposite. So for a short, you can set a limit lower than the current price and a stop higher. OCO orders allow you to place a stop and limit and the bet will be closed whichever is hit first. So you may short at 100p and set an OCO to buy at 110 or 80. That way you either lose 10 points or win 20 and the positon is closed. I don't use them myself although I used to with bare index trading
  8. Cheers, always nice to have info from those in the know. My long GSK/short AZN preference is a pure hedge based on the fact that the market LIKES GSK more than it does AZN. Thats the most important thing in the short term. My hope is that GSK will outperform AZN over a certain period. I'm not that bothered about the actual market performance of the sector. As I say, I'm not in the hedge at the mo. I want to see how the market deals with the recent results for a month or so.
  9. I always use quarterly bets for longs to avoid the 7%. You do pay roll over but wise trading can mitigate this. Watch out for those drug stocks, they are very news led. I agree that AZN looks a dead duck, particularly with all the generic drugs coming along but beware. I like a long GSK, short AZN hedge when the figures permit but I won't be doing it yet.
  10. I have short PRU and have had to put up with some pain of late but got paid today! I like to run my portfolio as a hedge. At the moment I have more shorts than longs so the last couple days have been welcome. I like to be long FTSE 250 shares and short 100 shares as it gives me an edge at the mo. I will adjust my portfolio to be long or short biased depending how I feel on the market. At the mo I think shorts may be in for the foreseeable and then a bounce mid to late April. We'll see.
  11. ANswer to both questions. I said 'most' as I am unaware of all companies policies. I would assume they all do it but didn't want to be flamed! As for buying xdiv, yes it can be a good policy as the market has a price memory to some extent and will quickly forget the xdiv adjustment. If a share always hangs around 600p but drops 20 on xdiv, it is likely to return to it's old range sooner or later, ceteris paribus.
  12. But we shouldn't under-estimate the yanks. There seems to be an idea that the dollars fall is out of their control, whereas I suspect they are behind the whole thing. They police the world and now we must pay for it. As businessmen, they are smart and utterly ruthless. If anyone thinks the US economy is about to fall, they may be dissapointed. While other countries see devaluationas the ultimate sin, the Americans will do it on a whim. Look and learn. Maybe buy the S+P as well.
  13. I would also point out that most spreadbet companies adjust your opening price for xdiv. So, shorts do not benefit fom them, even though the price fall may look spectacular. eg. You short at 100p and the next day the xdiv adjustment is 10p. Your opening price is 90p so you don't gain from the event. Most people don't know that. All I can say is that spreadbetters should watch their wednesday statements to see their true positions for xdiv shares.
  14. Remember that these are results based on the past, not the future so they may be better than people expect. Also, there will be comment on the future prospects of the company and this is largely down to the optimism of the board. They may feel bullish and predict a strong outlook. Doesn't mean they are right, but it'll have an effect on the price. To me, it looks like the results will be bad and it'll fall but I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole! My shorts on BB., SDR and DXNS are doing far too well for that. Tights stops on all of course. BB. looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Maybe
  15. I got 250. It said I was god. Do I win a prize?
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