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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Grandmasterspank

  1. You're right House Price Compassion is not appropriate. There is no room for compassion. I need to be more like Conan. General: Conan! What is best in life? Conan: Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women. Mongol General: That is good! http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0008154/quotes
  2. Yeah, and that's another avenue. Give cash family member who will use a deposit.
  3. Of course they will! Many of them will look at it as a place to pass on to their children when they die. I know my parents have been talking about it! I've had arguments about the profitability of BTL before, and I reckon you can still eek out a return if your getting +6% RY.
  4. With an election in 2015! I'd put money on further interference to keep things ticking over until April. He'd probably liked to have moved the pension thing earlier but was constrained by the tax year.
  5. 6 months is a long time for the market without a fix. I expect bridging measures at autumn statement.
  6. I wonder if any journo s read this forum? That money week bloke mentioned it once.
  7. I agree that the investor segment is the bit that is likely to go 'pop'. I found the following interesting: http://www.edmundconway.com/2014/04/londons-foreign-cash-property-buyers-may-be-less-cash-rich-than-you-think/ Basically saying that 'cash' buyers often arn't really 'cash' buyers at all because they have foreign debt. Important because any slowdown could precipitate further sales.
  8. Maybe but most sellers arnt distressed at the moment. Employment is high and interest rates low.
  9. Love that quote: "Over time, trends in real asset prices are determined by real, non-monetary, forces. We may occasionally be prominent actors but it's someone else who's written the script,". Central bankers never take responsibility for what they have done! Quite the opposite of what the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) has been saying.
  10. If gold does break support at 1180-1200 it is going allot lower than 1150 IMHO.
  11. Autumn statement is very good point. By that time correction in London will be obvious. What will they do? You know they will do something? Separate thread? My money is on stamp duty.
  12. Very Austrian. Friedrich hayek couldn't have said it better! Difficult to compare the GFC with 80s recession. Who knows! I just think its perverse that the GFC basically saved London property - if rates were still in the mid single digits prices would have corrected years ago.
  13. http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/ UK is in the top 5 on valuations for most expensive - shame they don't break down by cities. Japan is cheapest apparently. Apparently in Japan - http://www.jricl.com/. - city real estate yields c. 6% in a country where the 10year bond yield is sub 0.5%. Why are investors dicking around in London for c. 3-4% yieled in a country with long term bond yields c. 2.2%!?
  14. I work for a hair gel producer. We will be badly hit by the foxtons slow down.
  15. Fair points, logic makes sence long to medium term. If HP tank big time the economic shock would be massive in the short term. Huge. No question, consumers would retrench massively. Job losses etc. Massive opportunity if in job and have cash all I'm saying. Why worry? Well looks like decent chance happening in London!
  16. I'd be worried, which is why my desire for a crash is perhaps a bit more muted. What's the point of cheap housing if no job!?
  17. If London HP tank signifactly, don't you worry about recession and job losses? Great time for cash buyers sure!
  18. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/Scarborough.html?minBedrooms=5&viewType=GRID&index=75 Av a look
  19. Amorization is standard accounting practice. When you incurr an up front cost you spread it over the life cycle of the venture. Standard. Bloo Loo, on 26 Oct 2014 - 3:02 PM, said: Easy - A couple I know who do this for a living buy up big town houses then rent out the rooms. I think they said theres was worth £150k - there are 6 rooms - and they rent out the room for £350 each - £50 of which is for bills. £300 * 5 (assume one empty) = £1500. So that's actually a RY = 1.5 *12 / 150 = 12%. Not bad eh! I only used 7% because it was quoted previously and came up with £200k as a mental exercise - the value doesn't matter! Re. London - I currently live in zone 5 - I rent a room in a house which I reckon is worth £280k. The landlord rents out 3 rooms at £500 (inc. £50 bills) so gets £1350 net of bills. That's a RY of c. 6% which is still easily enough to be profitable - I know the landlords well and they are not losing money. There on-going costs are minor, they don't go through EAs and list rooms on websites like myspareroom. Rental yields in zones 1-4 are obiously lower but even then I knocked up a spreadsheet a couple of months back when I lived in zone 3 because I was curious and I reckoned that the base interest rate needed to rise 1% before landlords started losing money month on month. I don't even care but you are not living in reality if you think BTL is currently unprofitable. Note the 12% example I showed above!
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