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House Price Crash Forum


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About jammin35

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  1. I think the explanation here is that there are two markets: 1. Perfect Houses 2. Imperfect Houses Perfect houses ARE flying off the shelves - i've seen it every day for the two weeks i've been looking. Imperfect houses are NOT selling at all. It is these that are seeing the price cuts. The only reason, in my opinion, that prices are not collapsing in this area is classic supply and demand. There are more buyers seeking Perfect Houses than there are sellers of them. The reason for this is obvious - anybody can get a mortgage it seems, but few people can buy an Imperfect House and do it up. And because of this, Perfect House sellers hold out for asking price and Perfect House buyers are willing to pay the asking price, because prices are rising. I rent, so i have the luxury of time, but other people don't - if they've sold. Let's assume that in the price bracket i am looking at, a Perfect Home means two toilets and 3 bedrooms and walk in condition. If i look on Rightmove there are probably no more than 5 such homes in an area with 70,000 people living in it! It's no surprise that the sellers of smaller houses are now crowding in on the very few decent ones on the market. And slightly off topic: sellers are just being greedy. Get this - the estate agent phoned back. The guy who wants an extra £5k originally sold his house to a guy back in July but the sale fell through. The failed sale guy offered £5k under asking price, but he really wants this house for whatever reason (something to do with buying his daughter out, i don't really understand it). So it now turns out that what actually happened was that the guy who wants to buy the house saw it had gone SSTC and rang up the seller, promising him an extra £5k. Except he's not in a position to offer this because he's not got a buyer himself. Now the guy who is selling to us, who tried to strong-arm us into another £5k on the back of this confirmation, is apparently "very disappointed" that we've pulled out and would like to remind us that he and his wife are splitting up and were hoping to go their own ways before Christmas, which they now can't do "because you withdrew your offer". It seems obvious to me that after the current crop of summer buyers has finished feasting, anything new coming to the market, or anything in less than perfect condition, is going to sit there till the spring. After that, who knows. All i know is that people are gazumping each other on a daily basis and none of them have the nouse to realise that the only reason prices are rising is because there is a shortage of Perfect Houses. And that could change very quickly. The problem is that after 5 years of sitting back and waiting, i'm not convinced there is any black swan event.
  2. I find myself wondering whether % reductions is actually a useful measure. I live in West Dorset. We've decided to buy because i am 45 and i want to have paid the mortgage off by the time i retire. Some will think this stupid, but it's a roof over my head and i'm fed up of renting. In the past 3 weeks we have viewed 3 houses: House 1, a 3 storey 1930s house with sea views, asking price £282500. We offered £270k because it had been on a few months. Rejected. The agent (a mate of mine) told me it has now sold for full asking price after a bidding war between 2 buyers. House 2: a 2 storey typical 1930s suburban house but with a huge kitchen diner. Sold for the full £305k asking price the day after we viewed it and decided it wasn't worth it. House 3: a modern 3 bed house designed around the specific dimensions of a double bed and a 3 seater sofa. On the market for £280k for 18 months. Owner showed us round. I asked him what he'd accept. £290k was his target (despite listing at £280k). Any room for movement? None - and get this for an argument - "we know its worth £285k because we paid £250k for it two years ago". House 4: a 4 bed 90s house. Been on the market for 7 months. We offered £280k against the £290k asking price because it was big enough for our needs according to my wife. I hate the place. Offer rejected, eventually accepted £285k. This morning, estate agent rings to say they've had a full asking price offer and would we please up ours to "save the sale". Fortunately the missus accepts that the guy is untrustworthy, which is more of an issue to her than spending money and we told him to stick it. That leaves us with precisely nothing to view in the range that i am willing to spend - up to £300k, min 3 beds, two toilets/bathrooms, off road parking. This isn't because we don't want to spend enough, but rather because there is absolutely nothing on the market - they are being snapped up. But we looked at two other houses that have been reduced. One of them was next door to the 3 storey house mentioned above. Despite not having a loft extension, most of the double glazing being shot, the garden being shoulder height weeds (with a pile of rubble), the kitchen being a cheap BTL style - he wanted £260k or above. That was reduced by £5k this week, after we and several other viewers fed back that it was worth less than £200k. So i wonder if it is just the crap that is being reduced. Certainly in the west Dorset area stuff is flying off the shelves. I am now thinking we'll sit back and wait until spring.
  3. It makes me sick when i read comments like her last one. Always the father at fault, always him that is causing his children's welfare to suffer. No doubt when he's paying thousands in maintenance a month it will still be somehow her that is paying for the kids not him. As another poster says, she is owed nothing. They had two houses. Now she can reap what she has sown.
  4. After seven years of waiting, the missus and i have decided to buy. Prices in this area seem to be picking up after my optimism of early summer, but mainly because there is absolutely nothing available on the market and the few sales are immaculate condition homes. I want a home, don't care if it drops by 30% anymore, since its a roof and at 45, my options in terms of mortgage length are shrinking. We are looking at one tonight. It is next to a house in immaculate condition. The house in immaculate condition sold last weekend for close to asking price. It has a loft conversion, 4 beds, three bathrooms, new kitchen and big garden. It was priced at £280k. The one we are looking at tonight has been redecorated, a cheap fitted kitchen put in. No carpets down in any rooms. Garden is 80 by 30 but is quite literally shoulder deep in weeds. The buyer wants £265k and is apparently buoyed by the sale of the house next door. What's a loft conversion? £25k for a decent one? Carpets - £2k? Sorting and turfing the garden - another £1k. Decent kitchen - £5k? Wood burner? 2k? Curtains and blinds for odd shaped windows? £2k? His asking price should be £35k to 45k less than the one next door. So, although i am buying, i am certainly not a bull. There are some real greedy b*stards around who only get away with it because there is so little competition. This crash, when it comes will be brutal. NB: we will not be buying the house we are viewing tonight, unless he drops by £40k, which he won't. We've got till April before we need to decide to renew rental.
  5. Something else i notice - in the last 12 months, if you look at the smaller spikes, the sales volume increases seem to correlate with points where prices have dropped. I know nothing about charts, but does that mean something?
  6. I'm not convinced its working at all. I earn a little over £80k, my wife earns £26k. I spend around £1000 on commuting/staying away and £816 on child maintenance. I have £5k of debt. So my effective gross income is about £48k. Lloyds Bank will lend us £230k with a 10% deposit. Our credit rating is as good as a non owner can get. My child maintenance will stop in 2 years and i will be better off. So 3 times joint income. Other banks, where we are not customers, will lend a lot more. Lloyds mortgage advisor can't explain it and thinks it must be a temporary restriction on lending. Brother and sister in law. He earns £18k, she earns £16k and is preggers with child number one. They've just bought a house with a 5% deposit and £161k mortgage from HBOS i believe. So 5 times joint income no problem. Shouldn't have happened under MMR.
  7. How nice that the media now refer to him as a "big landlord". That said, I prefer "pig" myself. Still, he has one saving grace: he doesn't make any pretence about taking homes from young buyers, unlike Ros and the Retards.
  8. I would suggest that withdrawing all interest relief, not just capping it, introducing caps on mortgage multiples and ending Help to Buy would be all that is needed to bring about such a shift.
  9. Yesterday i set up a "fake" google account and emailed my local paper with a letter outlining my outrage at government plans to destroy my buy to let empire, the loss of interest relief, the loss of the wear and tear allowance, capital gains tax and loss of child benefit because my income now appeared artificially higher than the threshold. Perhaps everybody else should do the same. If we could get a letter on the letters page of every local paper, a lot of real landlords would be in for an awakening.
  10. In the 118 thread in which Ros' blood boils, did anyone spot the comments about child benefit. Basically, somebody's accountant has told her that because her taxable income will now increase, her entitlement to child benefit will reduce. I guess Ros has eaten her children, since she doesn't seem to be bothered.
  11. Hmmmm..... "Hello Mr UKAR, my name is James and i rent a property for which you are the mortgagee in possession" "How can we help?" "I would like to offer you 76% of the market value"
  12. Heehee, i could have chosen better examples, but actually renting in Norway, once you get outside of the Oslo area, is pretty reasonable. As you say, it's the rest that costs the money. I lived and worked there for 2 years back in the 1990s. Wish i'd stayed. I don't know any poor Norwegians nor any that work stupid hours.
  13. Spot on. We rent a large (inglenook fireplace large) cottage a mile outside Weymouth. 3 double bedrooms, en suite, donkeys out the back, no noisy neighbours, landlord lives next door. We pay £950 a month. I am 44 (last house lost through divorce) so i am limited to a 21 year mortgage, realistically. We could buy a 3 bed terrace in town. No parking, mind. Noisy neighbours? No donkeys. On a repayment mortgage over 21 years it would cost us about £1450 And we'd probably hate it, because it would be pokey. So the £500 difference goes in the bank and the funny thing is, although our friends sneer at us, we feel wealthy. i have 4 years rent in the bank, so i don't need to fear unemployment. By the time i retire, if i haven't bought, that will probably be 40 years rent. And neither of us will live that long. Up until recently i've wondered if i am being stupid not buying even at these silly prices, because eventually the mortgage will be paid off and rises/falls don't matter then. Now i am contemplating a life of renting what i need. When we are retired, maybe we'll live in Norway for a year, and then spent 6 months in Spain.....Not so easy if you own.
  14. Bitcoin's bubble, last year, in which it spiked to $1200 before dropping to $220, is an excellent case in point. But of course we don't gt bubbles in housing any more. It's different this time. And everybody knows they always rise. And nobody was predicting that for bitcoin. Were they?
  15. Seems like a good strategy. If I was buying, that's exactly what I would do. Probability of a rise is greater than probability of a fall.
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