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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by LVM

  1. I've worked as an IT consultant at a number of banks, both retail and investment, and can confirm that this happens at most of them. I'm currently working at a continental European investment bank on a £40m capital project that will deliver very little business benefit. It is a box-ticking exercise for a reasonably senior individual so that he can have a shot at the board. I have monthly meetings where I challenge the dates pencilled in by a previous programme manager and explain to senior management that the next release will be crap, but it all falls on deaf ears. In fact the release in June caused the bank to be out of the FX market for three days, yet because something was delivered, even though it was an utter disaster due to lack of testing (no time!), senior managers were slapping IT on the back. These "businesses" deserve to be destroyed by the challenger banks. They are rotten.
  2. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/44218238
  3. Newton hasn't been winning since Einstein formulated his theory of general relativity ? </physics_nerdishness>
  4. In years to come, an economist who is currently in nappies will win a Nobel prize for linking phenomena like Brexit, Trump and Corbyn directly to the GFC and QE.
  5. Depends where your savings are. Popular equity funds are up 10% YTD despite poor performance during spring.
  6. I went short in mid-June. Probably time to take some profits, although going to zero isn't out of the question...
  7. But the economy isn't flatlining. Tax receipts are up. The FTSE is at an all-time high. The Q1 GDP figures will end up being revised upwards. The City is hiring again. Anecdotally, I know of banks giving 20% pay rises, and my new firm is hiring like there's no tomorrow. This stuff just doesn't happen in a "flatlining" economy.
  8. HL allowed me to use my entire annual ISA allowance, then open a LISA and add £4k of funds. That's not supposed to be allowed, but as I merely a simple retail investor, it's on their heads.
  9. They all rattle or squeak from somewhere at some point. Modern cars are mostly fitted with "sports" (i.e. stupidly stiffly sprung and under-damped) suspension that transmits all of the road buzz and knocks from potholes straight into the (usually floppy) chassis, where it then causes bits of trim and wiring loom to come loose, screws and bolts to work free etc. Get yourself a mechanic's stethoscope, some silicone grease and a roll of foam and you'll be able to fix all of that annoying squeaking and rattling for pennies.
  10. Long-time lurker... I think that the UK has entered recession. My inbox is full of spam for sales at various large retailers, with discounts of anything up to 50%. Car dealers are openly advertising a couple of grand off a new car as a starting point for negotiation before the haggling has even begun. Even the pound shop I cycle past on my way to work has started an "everything 90p" promotion. GDP figures, being next to useless, may not show the UK entering de facto recession this year, but it certainly feels like we're there to me. Have to confess I am hunkered down purely in GBP at the moment, having sold off my foreign currency, UK equities and p2p loans a few months ago. I have no idea what's coming next now that the QE experiment has demonstrably failed. FWIW I see GBP strengthening a little further, therefore no immediate need to take positions, but the only trade I see allowing me to sleep soundly when I do will be to switch half of it into USD and a small allocation to physical gold - and a tin foil hat to go with that view!
  11. House prices fall, people who are currently renting buy, demand for rental properties falls, rents fall.
  12. Don't fall into the trap of thinking that "The Government" will be better/worse off. Government is funded by taxation, i.e. you and I. You and I will be better off after HPC, for two reason: 1. We'll be able to buy a house without saddling ourselves with a huge unrepayable debt. 2. Our tax burden will be lighter due to a decrease in spending on housing benefit. Based on income from stamp duty of £7bn and expenditure on housing benefit of £25bn.
  13. I'm an IT contractor and I have to use a PSC; in my experience, nobody wants to hire sole traders for contract work - you must be employed via a ltd co. Anyone who thinks that working through a PSC is some sort of tax-free nirvana has never tried it. If you need to take a decent wage out of the company, it essentially allows you to avoid paying NI, that's about it.
  14. I wouldn't call Muswell Hill "up and coming". Grads don't want to be this far out; it really is quite a family-oriented area, so I can't see a stampede for a 1-bedder at £200 a month over market value. If LL won't budge, I'll be moving out.
  15. My LL has told me that they're putting the rent up on my 1 bed flat in N10 to over £350 a week, based on... nothing. They haven't even had a cursory look on RM, which would show that the most expensive 1 bed flat in the postcode is currently £310 a week asking price. So, after two years of zero missed payments, I can only assume they're doing it out of greed.
  16. I don't know why there's so much anti-London feeling on here, there are plenty of HPCers living here. Yes, you have to earn well over £50k a year to have any semblance of a life, well over £100k to even think about owning a house, but those numbers aren't difficult to achieve. I realise this angers many and I'm as mad as anyone about misappropriation of taxpayers' money to prop up the banks, but I like earning a lot for doing a little. I fully admit to being a hypocrite on this, but I see at as being the fastest way to build up enough capital to break out of the very system that currently pays my wages. I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want to get the seven-figure mortgage required to own a house here. Even if you wanted to own property, you'd be better off buying something in another major city, renting it out and then using that income to fund rent on a place in London - you'd be living in a far nicer house and you'd split your risk of bad tenants, voids etc over a few different BTLs. Not that I think residential property is a great bet at the moment. Most top earners in London are obviously in financial services and therefore a move out of London means a move to another country. The irony is that pretty much everyone in the City sits in front of a computer screen and could do this just as easily at home. I can do my job from home quite happily for one day a week, so why my current employer (well, customer, as I'm a contractor like everyone else these days) insists on paying out for an expensive seat at a desk for me in the City is baffling. The London Exodus might well be a very real thing but there's a queue of people waiting to take their places, whether they've come from other parts of the UK, from Europe or indeed from further afield. I just don't see demand to live in London dropping off, however as we all know on here, that doesn't mean that house prices can't drop. Personally, I don't care what they do anymore, but a big crash would be an interesting show.
  17. Can I ask whereabouts? I'm looking to move a little further out and that sort of thing sounds ideal.
  18. Shall we get the thread back on topic? I got involved merely to state that moving down south isn't impossible. I find that I enjoy living in London; besides friends and family, I don't miss anything about the north (maybe the fish and chips, which are rubbish down here). Different people have different interests and I realise that living in the capital isn't for everyone. At the moment, it suits me. I am able to save tens of thousands per year that I couldn't save in Leeds and at some point I will return north with the swag. This is because there are MANY more customers in London, with MUCH more money to spend. Is this a result of government intervention and free money for unproductive bankers based in the area? Undoubtedly. Do I intend to take advantage of it for as long as it lasts? Yes, and, IMHO, you're mad not to if your personal circumstances allow. Now, about what Redwood said... I don't care, he's not in the cabinet and he's not my MP. He's just another useless, troughing politician, like 99% of them.
  19. They shouldn't have to. I shouldn't have had to. By most people's measure, I haven't succeeded, as I don't own my own home. It would be nice to at some point, but I've given up stressing about it.
  20. I don't need to go into the ins and outs of my salary and outgoings, except to say that I am self-employed and increased my income by roughly 300% by moving to London. I am able to rent somewhere reasonably nice, and save a good chunk of earnings every month. I cycle everywhere, so my transport costs are negligible. Food is no more expensive than anywhere else in the country. Entertaining oneself can actually be a lot cheaper than up north, depending on your interests (if your interests are drinking in pubs, then granted that is more expensive down here). If you know which mailing lists to join, it's possible to go to shows, gigs, comedy etc for free. FWIW, I think houses are grossly overpriced in pretty much all parts of the country. I couldn't have afforded to buy a family home on my income in Leeds and I can't afford one in London either, so no change there. Rent is expensive, but hasn't moved for years. If anything, rents have dropped a little over the last year. My original point was merely that, yes, people from less prosperous parts of the country can move to London without having being gifted a ton of money from their family. That's all. And yes, this is anecdotal, just like pretty much every other post on here.
  21. I have been lurking for years but had to log in to comment on this. It's complete rubbish. I moved from Leeds to London for work and can report that there are tons of jobs in London at the moment. I have several friends who have done the same. I've never inherited a penny and have taken no money from parents since leaving home at 18. So can we please stop with this nonsense that London is for oligarchs and landed gentry only.
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