Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Guest_ringledman_*

  1. Read the management accounts. Is there cash in the bank? Was the overall income coming in from the flats higher than the expenditure? The balance sheet of the management account is critical for buying a flat. If there is a deficit. Avoid.
  2. My 2 golden rules for stocks - 1) Never buy IPOs. Most IPOs are a complete joke where the owners want to sell out the investment crowd who then sell on to the unsuspecting public. IPOs on average offer a poor return unless you get the lucky one in ten. 2) Never buy growth stocks on high P/E multiples in the 'hope' of higher earnings. You are one profit warning away from a collapse. Boring value is the only way.
  3. Hi Nomadd. I take your point. I am just shocked at the level of asking prices in comparison to historical data for the street. In the bracket I am looking at £200k-£280k property sells fairly quickly. So on the basis of your research how much less than asking is property actually going for? Cheers.
  4. Been looking around South Manchester. Mostly Bramhall and Wilmslow. Prices seem to be priced way above the average selling price of 2007-2010. Anyone seem a similar pattern? Am shocked thaty some properties around the £240k mark have no similar priced sales on the street with the maximm sale price the last 4 years only £190k or so. Anyone see a similar pattern? Have the South Manchester suburbs followed London is staying around the 2007 peak? Seems like a bubble to me. The market seems busy so how close to asking price are properties now going for?
  5. I'm sceptical of the property industry at the best of times but this isn't the impression I have gleeneed over the last couple of months. I think a loose monetary and fiscal policy in the UK is feeding through into nominal price stabilisation.
  6. They are too busy to come around and give me a selling price and get my custom. I was amazed to hear this! Been looking to buy or at least see what's on offer around the Altrincham/Wilmslow/Cheadle/Bramhall areas. Everything is priced near or above the sale prices of the last few years. Many are still asking for above the sale prices of 2007-2009. Some are blatantly throwing them on way above. I was shocked to tell the least. Perhaps it's the January bounce but my expectation of throwing in 15%-20% below asking price and getting interested sellers is unlikely!
  7. Been house hunting for the first time in 8 years. Time to move on from the first time home. From what I have seen so far since December the market is busy, seriously busy. Had an agent who cancelled a viewing on my place as they said they are too busy to turn up on Saturday. Rang HSBC mortgages and they have an operator who says we are so busy we need to call you back. They returned the call 3days later. One estate agent said they are making countless sales. All this in public sector hit Manchester. Am tentitively looking to move up. Still see property as significantly overvalued so will probably 'rent to rent' for a year or two. With negative interest rates and a currency being destroyed I believe that the brunt of the nominal falls and low sales is over. Well at least for a couple of years. Home owners just don't seem compelled to sell as things are much to ones annoyance. I just don't see the USA, Spanish or Irish 50% wipeoff coming any time soon.
  8. Didn't realise the nominal average price historical data is there. May graph it out one day. So we are basically down 9.5% nominally and 20.7% in real terms from the peak using the data there. I would say prices in the northwest are probably 15%-20% down nominally on average from what I can see.
  9. As the title. Anyone got a link to the UK average nominal property price graph?
  10. Thanks for all the info. Am widening my search area. Convinced the misses to head further south into Cheshire. Am sick of living in chavsville city centre, or just off it. So perhaps, Bramhall, Wilmslow, Cheadle, Hale, Altrincham, etc. Just depends what one can get for the budget. Which parts of Cheadle and Cheadle Hulme are decent and which are to be avoided? What is it like as a place to live? Likewise what about Bramhall as an area? Seems to be a few links on the web about it being full of Chavs (all back in 2005). Didn't get that impression from the first visit. Also what is Handforth like? I personlly just want the quietest place possible, work in Warrington so South Manchester suburbs suit me fine. Misses wants to be close to shops, dance classes, etc. Had a look around Wilmslow and some decentish place around the £260-£270 mark but generally a bit smaller 2/3 bed terraces rather than the larger 3 bed semis of Sale. How much would we say nominal prices are down from the peak in South Manchester suburbs? 15% or so? An agent I spoke to said that the £250k-£300k 3 bed bracket is the most competitive for buyers so prices generally sell close to the asking price.
  11. Thanks to you all for the great advice. much appreciated. Basically been in Manchester around the city centre / victoria park / fallowfield for 7 years. Thought of buying in Chorlton / Didsbury but to be honest still see them as a bit scally. Also hear from a colleague that Chorlton is rife with burgalries. Want to get out of the M60 madness to somewhere a bit quieter but still with close links to the city centre (hence Sale and the metro). Misses doesnt like driving too far and needs to get into Trafford for work fairly easily. Mid 30s, no kids yet but want to buy a house to last 10 years and expect kids to be in primary school over the next decade or so. So need to buy in an area for a good primary and perhaps secondary school. Budget - Approx £250k. Looking for a 3 bed victorian with something of a back garden. Not interested in a new-build. Currently looked around the block that Walton Road runs down (from Marsland Road to Park Road). Told this was a decent part. Am open to other suggestions. Cheers.
  12. Suburbia sounds alright. Decent links to the city and motorways. Give me the equally priced alternatives then redknight.
  13. Sale? Looking at 3 beds. Thoughts on the area?
  14. Keeping hold of the house deposit. Best strategy? All in sterling? Assume that property will fall quicker than the value of the deposit? Assume that a 5% fall in property is a greater loss than say a 5% inflation rate on a 20% LTV deposit? Or what asset split for the deposit? Part Corporate Bonds / Equities / Gold? Thoughts? What are you doing?
  15. Any HPCers still expecting a quick nominal crash to materialise a la Spain, Ireland, USA? I can't see anything but a long drawn out affair (3-7 years). Perhaps longer to truely crash with a good majority knocked off in real terms rather than nominally.
  16. You can't measure the value of a property by comparing to another single point in time. This analysis bears no relation to the trend over the very long term. To truely measure property you need to compare to an independent variable that considers inflation over time correctly. The best two are probably price to earnings or rental yield. On both measures; still expensive. But may stay expensive for some time.
  17. I would say 'fair value' for a property is something like 14 times the amount of annual rent. This is representative of a 7% yield which is a fair investment return based on historical returns. Property can however bottom on much lower yields ie 10%-15%. However in today's age of low interest rates then perhaps yields won't bottom as low or take many years to get there through high rental inflation and stagnant property prices. From a rental yield perspective pretty much all good property is still overpriced.
  18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlmEetxA2Gs 'I am convinced that one day the whole derivatives market will cease to exist. will 'become zero' Blinding interview. So what are the implications for investors? Avoid ETFs? What about active/passive funds. Are they driven to the same extent by the derivatives market? Thoughts.
  19. Issuing mint. Does it matter what you buy? Personally I like Kruggerands and Brittanias. Does it really matter the mint they come from for resale? I personally avoid the chinese ones but they sometimes seem more expensive. Do you have a strategy for the type of silver or gold coins you buy?
  20. Still on of course. The Nikkei is technically and fundamentally looking fantastic for the long term investors out there. Definately being topped up in the new year.
  21. I subscribe to the Marc Faber view that we will not see positive interest rates in the West for at least a decade. We are at what 5% or so on the CPI? The real rate of inflation adjusting for the un-BS non-hudonic version including for insurance, transport, food, etc is probably somewhere around 7-9%. Anyone who thinks we will see positive interest rates anytime soon is living in lala land.
  22. Porca, care to share which funds you like? I have bought into M&G Strategic and Jupiter Strategic. Up a lot the last few years so perhaps top heavy on price. Hard to gauge. Will take a 4-5% yield and hope for a couple of percentage gain in annual capital to add to this. Thoughts on i shares corporate bond ETF? Low TER but a lot of financials in there. Also dont really trust ETFs. Likewise what about emerging market debt? Anyone believe in it? Have thought of as a diversifyer biut the TERs on funds are very high at 1.8% or so. Likewise way up on 2008 so hard to see value at the moment.
  23. Fiat currency started life as a barter item. Given value by being backed by gold. Since removed and since collapsing in value.
  24. 'its different this time'. The most dangerous words in investment. Classic blow off top talk. I dont know when the bond secular bear will end. I do know its way past its empirical life. I do know that the fundamentals are so out of what with reality (2% yield, 5.5% RPI, 7% real inflation). As such government bonds are high risk. Low upside potential. Huge downside potential. Risk / reward greatly out of whack with reality. When fundamentals become so abstract from the present irrational herd mentality, be very nervous indeed.
  25. The very fact that government bonds have been the best performing asset class over the last 30 years is the very reason to avoid them like the plague. All secular bull markets eventually end. We are in the blow off top for government bonds, the time of maximum euphoria for that asset class. A secular bear will return to the bond market very soon. Buying such hugely overvalued assets 30 years after the bull larket started is a recipe for disaster. Secular bull markets in bonds rarely exceed 25-30 years. Secular bears follow. Gold remains within one third or half way through its secular bull market, hence a lot safer than treasuries which are edging towards the final euphoric collapse stage.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.