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House Price Crash Forum

outdriveman

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About outdriveman

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  1. That brilliant !, As I suspected prices are softening. Really helpfull. I would love to see just po21. Thanks again
  2. Good afternoon Digsby Very interesting idea and information. Any chance you could run a report on PO21 5HL? Thanks in advance. regards
  3. I don't think this will have much effect, and you can bet this will only be towards new builds. The changes in annuity will pose the biggest threat. All the instant money available to dump into BTL. Ultimately it's all fast money looking for a return and is driven by sentiment.When Prime central London's drops start rippling out they will be looking for a different investment. I think we are still on for significant drops in the next 24 months
  4. I have been a relatively quiet follower. So I thought I would ask this question. How long will it take Prime London house prices to ripple out to the UK? I think there are some major falls in London and its gaining momentum. If you don't believe me take a look at Westminster on zoopla and sort by discounted properties within 3 miles. Some are discounted by 30%. Also I often look at Foxton estate agent share price which I think is a good lead indicator. The share chat is also very bearish.http://m.lse.co.uk/markets/shareprice/chat.asp?share=FOXT Am I just being wishful? Will the pension reforms just mitigate the drop? Or am I seeing the start of something beautiful?
  5. Count, I can not agree with you enough. Once we get a drop of 20% (the equity most btl keep in property) that's when the btl brigade will start running for the hills. Sometimes I think I am the mad one when I say I am a property bear, the bulls are strong in numbers and unfortunately for the last 16 years they have been right. I just did not realise the levels the boe and government would stoop too.
  6. Rather amusing. I like the compound interest calculation that have been made on 1 months growth on sold prices. I don't understand why this is a shock to anyone who follows the market as closely as those on this site. We have all seen the headlines about London prices for the first half of the year and therefore we should all be aware that deals negotiated in May- June would come out through the wash to higher sold prices. The lead indicator (asking prices) dropped by 5 odd % last month
  7. When I first read this article, I thought here we go again, until I realised your point that this is referring to sold prices which as you say is a lag indicator. The lead indicator which is asking prices dropped like a stone last month.
  8. If house prices decline, land prices will fall, with or without planning permission. You are correct that there are constants that may not change, such as building costs. The largest cost of any property is the land it sits on. It’s not house prices that will fall it’s the land. For the price of housing to drop below permission and building cost, in a falling land price market then it would have to fall some way before it’s not cost effective. I am talking over 50%. Also with volume you get economy of scale, so it would be more cost effect to build, coupled with whatever technology that may already exist, that can increase efficiency.
  9. Agree with you about builder having it easy, and in a falling market all the hot money will capitulate. However the builders won’t have much time 1-2 years top to change. Besides I think they will focus on build to rent, what with all this pension money being freed up, and the only way that’s going to work is for rental yields to be good. Currently rental yield in London and South east are not very attractive, instead the BTL landlord in this area have been relying on capital growth.
  10. House builder have shareholders to appease. They need to get the money somewhere. If no one is buying there expensive rabbit hutches what other options do they have other than to build more and sell cheap
  11. Good afternoon All, I thought I would tip in with a view that I am happy to be proved wrong about. I believe that falling house prices could actually increase supply, let me explain. Before the 2007/08 crash house building was pretty much where it needed to be volume wise, and then the crash hit and building plummeted. Why? Well I suspect that the large builders had a choice, restrict supply to keep demand and profit high, or change their business model from low margin, high volume. I believe the builders had enough land banks to do this, they chose the former, the government were introducing all sorts of measure to prop up finance for property purchases, FFL, 0.5% interest and QE. If it was your business what would you chose under the circumstances? Now fast forward to 2014, Let me indulge and suggest that house prices start to fall. The builders have the same choice, only this time it’s going to be a lot more difficult for the Government to underpin mortgages, for the following reasons. Interest rates can’t get any lower. Public opinion is/has turned, continually increasing hp are not viewed as a positive. If you owned a large building company what would you do? So what do you all think?
  12. Shindigger, yeah you are probably right and definetly right about the government ! My point being that it is easy to get sucked into the hype if you have not done your homework.
  13. Let's not forget the nature of a bubble, The average person in the street are not stupid, the argument to buy as prices will increase is always going to be strong otherwise people would not buy. However once you strip away all the hype and look at the fundamentals you can see that house price are not sustainable. If you looked at any major historical economic event, the people living through it at the time were convinced that a new paradigm has occured and they have the new norm. This is no different this time, we will be saying to future generations that they never experienced house prices 10 times the average salary, Just like baby boomers are stating to us that they had to endure interest rates of 15%.
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