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House Price Crash Forum

latterdaysinner

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About latterdaysinner

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  1. Apart from him saying that central bankers are not the masters of the universe that they think they are, I can't say I like this guy. He goes on about how the biggest failure of the Fed is failing to meet the inflation target and says that there is no greater advocate of negative rates than him. Thing is, who actually cares whether inflation is 2% or 0%? Before fiat money came along, inflation averaged zero over thousands of years and that did not bother anyone. He also completely lets central bankers off the hook as far as creating bubbles in asset prices is concerned, which has an economic
  2. London buyer here. Having looked at past property bubble collapses (HK, Japan, Spain, Ireland, etc.) they all take about 4-5 years to unroll properly, so not before 2020. A 50% nominal fall in London would take us back to 2004 in nominal terms, so probably quite reasonable in real terms. We'll see.
  3. I used to feel like this too. I had an older and richer colleague who bought a big house in the Clapham nappy belt and rented out his old one in another part of Clapham. He bought the second one in April 2009 and was all smug about getting a 'great' deal. I told him that I'd try to do as he did and wait for the next crisis before buying, to which he replied even more smugly that they'll never be another crisis. I kept feeling like this until my daughter started coming up to primary school age. Then I realised that moving into a catchment area of a great primary school, which is as good as som
  4. FTSE companies have a lot of revenues and assets in dollars, so their bounce-back is to be expected in sterling terms. As regards to the property market, make no mistake, the FEAR phase has definitely kicked off in London. Brexit ticks all the boxes for a needle to ***** the bubble. Expectation of rental income is down Expectation of population growth is down Expectation of income growth is down Expectation of flood of foreign buyers is gone Foreigners feeling unwelcome General uncertainty and job insecurity All of this is on top of the stamp duty and mortgage interest tax changes for BTL, w
  5. Foreign investors are not seeking value in London, London has not been good value for at least 5 years in any currency, they are seeking a momentum play, and momentum will now be firmly down.
  6. If they sell at a loss in GBP, they'll sell at an even bigger loss in USD after Friday's result, so it might be going down even quicker, but those foreign investors will be nursing losses.
  7. Ignoring a democratic vote is the stuff that civil wars are made of. It is an essential ingredient of a successful democracy that everyone agrees to respect the process and any outcome of it, regardless of how much they hate it.
  8. It's not economic, even if you have lots of solar panels on the roof and the electricity from them would otherwise be going to waste in the middle of the day. The battery is too expensive. If you're barred from installing one as a tenant, that's your saving grace. The best thing you can do with energy is make sure that you get on a price comparison website every time your current fixed deal expires and switch to the cheapest deal going. It takes minutes and will save the average person £200-300 per year compared to letting the energy company decide what tariff you should be on. Tenants can def
  9. I would hope that the average poster on this site has more than a 10% deposit stashed away after accounting for price falls to a reasonable level. I'm more worried about how long it will take and dying of boredom in the meanwhile. All decent crashes that I know of (HK, Tokyo, London in the early 90s, etc.) have taken about 4-5 years to play out).
  10. Who's Perfect is a German furniture company. The deal is actually a 0% loan with a 1% rebate on the purchase price. This is no different from the interest-free loans that DFS was offering even before the low interest rate era, and a 1% discount looks derisory, I'm sure DFS could do you a much better deal than this :-D You can stop hyperventilating now :-)
  11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment When the effect of changes to BTL mortgage interest tax kicks in, combined with rising mortgage rates, and rent is no longer sufficient to make mortgage payments, that's when the fun will start. Can't expect these people to think ahead. It will have to hit them in the face
  12. In the FT comments section on this story, there is a hilarious BTL pantomime foaming at the mouth. Here is a selection of his best comments. His sphincter must be hurting really badly today. Enjoy! ------------------------------------ 1. See my reply to BlaBla, most zone 1 landlords rent out to help out the housing shortage. They'll rather leave them empty than rent them to ungrateful so and so's. 2. You ungrateful so and so. Private landlords have contributed to the wellbeings of many millions of tenants for centuries. I'm converting all my BTL in London Zone 1 to AirBnB, hence getting R
  13. Sweden is the biggest basket case in the EU as far as housing is concerned. When it hits the fan, they'll have the biggest crash. Ironically, their banks already got burnt in the Baltics lending to people on stupid valuations up to 2008, but clearly learnt nothing. Norway isn't much better.
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