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Greg Philpott

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About Greg Philpott

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  1. I wonder what this graph looked like if you were to go back 100 years. Wouldn't be surprised if house prices were way above average earnings then. This trend of house prices following average earnings may be a relatively recent thing.
  2. I posted a thread on this about 9 am but it was moderated, not sure why. Looks like low base rates are here for the long term, in any case.
  3. Not sure real terms is a helpful measure - wages are down about 20% in real terms too. When real wages are falling, and interest rates are zero, nominal prices are all that matters surely.
  4. I think in London and many parts of the South East, buyers would bite the sellers hand off to have the opportunity to buy at 2007 prices. I'm not sure where the idea that 2007 was the peak comes from. The peak being a moving target surely - 2007 was more like a local maximum or inflection point.
  5. Heh, heh, I'm near that area already, Bush Hill Park (but wrong side of the tracks)! We're looking at moving more towards Chase / Oakwood. tbh we rarely go out in the Town, usually into central London, but wondered what the Chase area is like to live in.
  6. Hmm, the rocketing prices would be a problem for me, as you say, a smart 2 bed would cost 450 - and by the time I got my act together, probably 500. Whereas prices in Enfield Chase seem pretty stable, judging by Land Registry records they don't seem to have gone up hugely - although I don't know if that's a good or bad thing. Maybe because the train from there takes 30 minutes to central London and no tube.
  7. That's the problem, it does feel like that at the moment, given BoE and govt policies. Certainly, the people borrowing these sums feel reassured by these policies that the debt isn't anything to worry about, and sometimes it's hard to resist that. Can you see a return of mass repossessions, or is it more likely that debt will be commuted or written off? I wouldn't bet on the 'fair' outcome happening, given what's gone on the last 10 years or so.
  8. True, although lack of employment is maybe less of an immediate issue in the field I'm in - I'd be more concerned about not being able to work as a result of accident or illness (do these insurance policies ever pay out?).
  9. Second stepper here: have a 2 bed terrace with mortgage mostly paid off, in an OK suburb, but thinking of moving, either more centrally to a flat, or a sideways move to a better suburb. Either way, we're looking at having to borrow another 150-200K to make the move. Now, renting the central London flat will cost about 1700 per month, whereas the additional borrowing will cost about 1400 per month at current interest rates (which may of course rise at some point). The figures are similar if we rent vs buy a nice house in the better suburb. STR'ing only seems to make sense at the moment if a crash is a certainty - if London prices keep rising while inflation erodes the STR fund, then in 5 years' time we'll be in a worse place. At the same time, being nearly mortgage free feels good, and the prospect of borrowing a massive amount is daunting. This toxic combination of HPI and low interest rates is a curse both for FTBs and for those wanting to move, even if they have nominally 'benefited' from the boom - I certainly don't feel any richer. All HPI has done is provide greater leverage for those happy to take on more debt.
  10. What are people's thoughts on the Enfield Chase area? I realise it's not south-west London, which is where we all seem to aspire to live, but realistically, It seems cheaper than Winchmore Hill and Southgate, a bog-standard 2 bed terrace costs under 350K which I don't think you'd find anywhere else in North London, and a similar house in SW London would probably cost 600K. Downsides are that it's a bit far out (Zone 5), although the transport links to central London seem to be OK (there are a couple of overground lines), and I'm not sure there's much in the way of culture. Seems quiet enough, is it cheap (relatively) for a reason? Or maybe its overlooked because people think Enfield they immediately think Edmonton. Any ideas?
  11. I would say that, while we have long-term comedy base rates, and your friend is borrowing long-term at base rate +0.38%, it's actually the other way round: house prices (and rents) are real and the debt is a matter of opinion. Because the interest rates are certainly not real, and he's under no pressure to clear the capital, and finally the chances are that because there are millions like him, the government will find a way to get the banks to quietly forget about the capital (effectively with QE they already have).
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