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LDR

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About LDR

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  1. Volumes are moving back towards pre-crash levels - they're up 20% year on year according to both HMRC and Lloyds. Lloyds on transaction volumes ("up by more than a fifth"): http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26096295 HMRC on transaction volumes ("up 24% year-on-year"): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25504814 Again, if it's all about credit rather than the gap between supply and demand, why did the US see a huge crash whereas the UK saw only a brief blip? Why did the crash in the US mirror those in Ireland and Spain despite those three countries having very different credit situations but very similar oversupplies of housing due to frenzied building when the GFC hit?
  2. You're putting the cart before the horse - it's the imbalance between supply and demand that's driving prices up. If you think otherwise, why did the US housing market crash by 50%+ and return to historical norms when the British market only dipped by 20% and is now heading back to 2007 levels? Both countries' central banks flooded the markets with cheap credit via quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies, and the US has always provided borrowers with more protection than the UK, so if that was all there was to it, we should've seen the same crash as they did. The difference is that in the US, housebuilding kept pace with population growth, so when the GFC hit there was a massive glut of unsold inventory and prices had room to fall. Here, housebuilding slowed down during the boom years so we didn't have that huge pool of newly built houses and builders who desperately needed to offload them at any price. As a result, the housing market dipped instead of crashing and rapidly bounced back onto its pre-crash trend. It's about supply and demand; everything else we're seeing in the market, from the ongoing price inflation to the prevalence of BTL to the squeezing of more people into ever smaller "houses" is a direct consequence.
  3. The housing shortage doesn't mean a ton of homeless people, it means ever more people getting crammed into the limited housing we have available - it's why we see even very well paid young professionals being obliged to rent rooms in HMOs or shared houses rather than renting or buying a place of their own, "family" houses being subdivided into flats so they can house two or three families separately, and so on.
  4. HMRC was reporting a 24% year-on-year increase in transaction volumes in December 2013, which seems to jive with the Land Registry value of "more than one fifth": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25504814
  5. I don't think you need much sinew-straining to refuse planning applications and cater to NIMBYs.
  6. Renting, living in flats carved out of what were once family homes and generally getting crammed into increasingly tiny rabbit hutches.
  7. The demand is driven by the fact that there's twice as many new households entering the population each year as there are new houses being built.
  8. I think he's mostly talking about the housing shortage; at the moment, the population is growing by 250k-300k households/year, but we've only been building 100-150k houses/year over the last decade or so, which means there's a lot of pent up demand and a big backlog that won't be eliminated for a long time even if we were to start building the 400k+ houses/year that we'd need to address it meaningfully.
  9. BoS seem to offer a four year fix at 3.99% for existing customers with at least 75% LTV: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=196298 Not the most competitive deal, but far better than what you're currently getting.
  10. I'm not sure that alone would deter the Saudi royal family; I don't think they're exactly short of a bob or two.
  11. Good housing in Bangladesh is extremely expensive relative to local incomes, so I'm not at all sure what your point is here.
  12. FWIW, nationwide reckon that the average FTB is putting in a 20% deposit. Given that transaction volumes are trending upwards quite strongly and that population growth stands at around 250k new households/year but we're only seeing ~100k housing starts/year, I can't see any realistic prospect of a crash in the short or medium term.
  13. Total UK residential sales volumes through to Dec 2013, per HMRC: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/transactions/val-40000-or-above.pdf
  14. My bad, sorry - it's mortgaged first time purchases that are up 32%; the overall transaction volume is up 30%. The source is the Nationwide report: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/nationwide.co.uk/pdf/hpi/Jan_2014.pdf
  15. Sales volumes are up 32% year-on-year and expected to increase further.
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