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House Price Crash Forum

ronnie

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Everything posted by ronnie

  1. Maybe the remaining members will vote for rises in his honour! or more seriously they may be more inclined to consider a rise by bearing him in mind when considering their descisions,unlikey though.
  2. i cant beleive the probability of a crash in ireland is only 34% but i suppose its bettet than 5% in uk!! Denmark seems to be a dead cert to burst and the sentiment could ripple around europe. Spain has actually risen more than uk relative to incomes which are much lower in spain. OECD are twits anyway,they look at it entirely on past stats etc and their models have zero allowance for sentiment as pointed out earlier.busts by their nature are difficult if impossible to time/predict in short term so i cant see much validity in their probabilities
  3. its short term untill the indian's have developed the right accent etc,globalisations march is inevitable unless the EU/uk/usa shuts up shop in a protectionist fury when they realise they cant compete with theses new economic superpowers
  4. http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0613/hok.html one of the bigger estate agents in dublin have sold out a few weeks after another big estate agent mr gunne sold his business and his 5million house in space of few weeks,the insiders are selling out ,crash is on the way here.
  5. why doesnt pound drop like a stone if inflation is as rampant as many on here suggest??
  6. the writings on the wall for the irish economy -uncompetitive and inflation running at 4% -highly reliant on construction/property -exports stagnant and imports of consumer and luxury goods from abroad booming,"sure we'll make our selves rich buikding each other houses!" foreign multinationals account for 88%of exports!! -huge competition coming from new EU countries and asia in terms of tax cost of labour etc -spend a fraction of european average on R&D ,little innovation,people would rather invest in brincks and mortar than in developing world class companies -has very little indigenous industry competing on world stage -massive complacency "have gotten fat" -ultra optimism which is misplaced and ill though out
  7. the interest rate rises to 3.5% base rates in themselves wont burst the bubble,the banks have to stress test by +2% so this will stop a lot of ftb's buying and this along with prices reaching massive levels will mean the bottom rung of ladder will be unreachable,then prices will stagnate untill investors seeing no more capital gains pull out and a negative downward spiral begins and hits all corners of the economy.
  8. i'd recomend uk members should watch this programme on this site http://www.rte.ie/thetimeofourlives/boom.html bottom of page,this is what the uk mainstream media should be doing ! im suprised it made it to irish mainstream media.
  9. historically property rises by only 1% in real terms per annum, if it was much more it would consume a greater and greater share of income which grow by around 2% per annum in real terms. Its impossible for property to rise by 20% or even 10% for longer than a few years unless incomes rise by similar amounts which we know doesnt happen.
  10. The scots irish and welsh stations should show Braveheart before every enland match just to add a bit of spice!!!
  11. whats your point about this guy,you say he will continue to do well as he will buy more properties and raise his total rent take but you neglect the fact that every subsequent property reduces his average yield per unit ,he has to tie capital up in the new units which may not make significant returns relative to the risk free rate and alternative investments.
  12. fair play to him,if i was in his shoes i'd consider selling up half to diversify. can he not release some equity to take advantage of writting off loan interest against income?
  13. People say rents and house prices are too high,if this is the case then it must be the case that theres a shortage of housing in UK market as a whole. if only prices were too high and there wasnt a shortage of housing then prices would fall as renting was cheaper and competing homes would be on market.
  14. there was a story in media here in ireland last week m&s and tesco charge 15% more here for same products also my mate buys stuff in river island in uk when he's there as it cheaper there than here.
  15. http://www2.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?...rch&searchlist= my friend rents the house next door to this one for 1500euro a month ,if an investor buys the above property he has to pay 9% stamp duty which brings cost to 950k-for a poxy 3 small bed box- and rental yield before expenses to 1.8%!!!!
  16. Jaysis your always on this site, why aren ya off enjoying all that "wealth" you have in the form of property?? cash in and live your life !! carpe diem.
  17. we've had 200k new immigrants here over last few years which is around 5% of population and 10% of working population,people arent too bothered yet as economy and house prices are "booming", head of a local university has said irish will be a minority by 2050.when property bubble bursts and economy slows i see a lot more anti immigrant feeling regardless of the migrants quality of education/skills etc. whats happening here is the equivalent of 3million migrants entering the uk in a few years and theres some evidence wage growth(neede to pay for inflated house prices) is being held back
  18. Want great returns?? start your own business then ,most small businesses would make far greater % returns than higher risk stock market investments. got capital? start a business.
  19. If supply and demand in housing market are in perfect equilibrium can prices keep rising IF enough people in the market think prices will keep rising??? i think its quite possible.
  20. exactly,schadenfreude! i'd love to see some arrogant incapable idiots making fools of themselves.
  21. joke ,council house owners gettin this money via taxpayers.
  22. whats wrong with the blog?? aint updated.
  23. read a report from investment bank a few months ago based on economic and psychological studies and it shows that above around £35k a year more money doesnt make you much happier so the marginal utility of money decreases drastically above 35k.also they said that spending on "goods" like cars etc gave less "hapiness"/satisfaction than spending on "experiences" such a great holiday with friends,after haing a flashy car for a few weeks you get "habituated" to it and it doesnt "do much" for you like it first did that first day you drove it, so the moral of the story is dont work yourself into the ground,spend less on consumer goods and have lots of memorable enjoyable experiences.
  24. no i mean 4% then take away expenses and its 3% or less. property is probably twice the price of the ftse (which could be itself overvalued).
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