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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ronnie

  1. Whats with crisps these days? The have all sorts of artifical flavourings/enhancers in them like MSG. When i was a kid i never remember there being so much crap in crisps.
  2. my father and mother said they will give me 100k out of proceeds of house sale when they trade down to cheaper house which would get me a nice pad in Buenos Aires where i could work part time in a job i really want to do like cocktail barman or something! Heck i might persuade them to give me 200k(euro) so i can buy 3 or 4 properties and live off the rental income(rental yields are around 10%!)
  3. This issue being debated on sky news now . edit: just caught last two minutes, presenter seemed against the idea. broker saying 50% of income on mortgage is acceptable amount etc
  4. Whats driving the pound??? Trade deficit for year is around 40billion??? The germans have a trade surplus of over 100billion!! Must be all that foreign money coming to london!
  5. Hello, any one got link to graphs showing uk's and other countrie's house prices relative to income and deviation from historical norm/trend. cheers.
  6. When the rest of europe opens its labour markets fully to the accesion eastern europe and baltic states will there even be enough immigration to avoid the demographic timebomb?? Will we see a government strategy to boost birth rate like putins russia is currently doing??? They could take in an unlimited amount of young immigrants from outside europe but we all know how politically senstive taking in non white non europeans is.
  7. its real rates, affordability and borrowing capacity that matters ,nominal rates are larely irrelavant.
  8. I have my escape plan ready, will be heading for london or manchester on the ferry when the inevitable crash comes. trying to get a job in irish civil serice at moment which would at least give job security in a downturn.
  9. Insiders are telling friends and family to get out of market NOW!! http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/sto...;issue_id=14600 Sell, sell, sell, estate agents tell property investors SOME estate agents are privately recommending their friends to sell their investment properties. With rising interest rates and concerns that the property market may finally be beginning to slow, some investors are opting out of the market. It comes as Housing Minister Noel Ahern is promising a crack-down on property speculators trying to make a fast buck in the housing market.. One investor, not a specu
  10. A crash doesnt necessarily mean mass unemployment, i think unemployment would only reach (at worst) 10 or 11% in a crash. A sharp correction is better as once prices reach a floor and start rising the consumer and house buyers will regain confidence and economy will emerge stronger and more competitive. A long drawn out correction is more likely to create a substained economic recession due to uncertainty , and peoples reluctance to buy houses cars clothes and "stuff". The pound would lose a lot of its value and make the country more competive on the world markets and create more jobs in uk o
  11. The two most significant causes of HPI are increases in population and increases in real income. Im sure he assumed income growth would continue as it had in previous decades and factored in the odd recession here and there. If the demographics go against the market it doesnt matter what the economy is doing really, there will be oversupply of property , UNLESS you import loads of people who are at or close to the age when people usually start to form households - cue mass immigration. But the germans etc have the same problem and their demographics are even worse i think, their economy will s
  12. China upped their rates which is impacting , plus they have 10% inflation internally over there from printing so much cash to keep their currency pegged .When the yuan floats the shitzu will realy hit the fan !!
  13. Could this impending demographic time bomb be the reason for the governments eagerness to open the borders???
  14. This model seems accurate at forecasting price growth. You can see the models predictions plotted against the real data. Worrying for investors in uk property market. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf
  15. Anyone post this yet? Was released yesterday, 80% of economists/property analysts think market overvalued and to slow this year and next. http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?...alog/GetContent
  16. When the market starts to tank the show will be quickly rebranded as " Falling off the Ladder" Avarice replaced by Schadenfreude I love smug ignorant gits getting their just desserts.
  17. http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnew..._10006912.shtml
  18. Sounds like a script for a movie! or an analogy relating to the British colonial experience!
  19. It puzzles me how the british people elected a labour governement and yet thess sort of ideologically driven initiatives gain a foothold despite costing more than if the public service did it. Real tory stuff, private sector involvement at all costs . I have nothing against privatising non essential services and even some esssential services under strictly contolled circumstance but when it costs more and is less efficient then theres no point as much of the bumper private profits probably leave the uk for foreign shareholders.
  20. Quite. http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2006/02/t...age=all&p=y “Poverty is stress,” she says, with more than a little passion in her voice. “One thing that always strikes me is that when you ask Americans why the poor are poor, they always say it’s because they don’t work hard enough, or don’t want to do better. They act like poverty is a character issue.” Gould’s work implies that the symptoms of poverty are not simply states of mind; they actually warp the mind. Because neurons are designed to reflect their circumstances, not to rise above them, the monotonous stress of living in a s
  21. Thats the gross yield in many of the more salubrious parts of Dublin, with rates heading higher and the banks and mortgage brokers forecasting a slowdown to near zero next year these "investors" will be exposed ,many will head for the door to cash in and lead the market lower and lower.
  22. That headline was on the front of Irelands main sunday business paper ,i can imagine all the sheeple getting their pints of milk and sunday papers today seeing the headline and their hearts sinking Then they'll say to themselves "ah its different here! " and "ah sure they've been predicting that for years and it hasnt happened, i'll be allrite " Even the top bankers are predicting growth slowing to 3% (nominal growth) in 2007 (not too long to go!), theres many many "investors " only in the market for capital appreciation and when it slows to the rate of inflation or lower as the banks an
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