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House Price Crash Forum


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About rentbug

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  1. The whole thing has been at the tipping point for years. We might get the last laugh but anyone with half a brain has had time to get out with a big profit a number of times over. Buying now is mental.
  2. Newspapers just tell stories (mostly made up) to please their readers in order to sell advertising space.
  3. This is the key and often overlooked. Sentiment is driving the market. What worries me is that a (for example) 20% drop will send all the "bargain hunters" back into the market. You only have to read between the lines on here to see how desperate people are to "own theiir own house" (aka be up to your eyes in mortgage debt). When the irrational "need" to own property has finally fallen away then the drops will - IMHO - be much more than the 30%. If you look at income/price history the drop should be nearer 50%, if you overshoot (as usual) nearer 65%. Such a "bucket of ice water shock" (c
  4. There is an old saying "if you can't beat them, join them". While I agree with you 100% and support your sentiments unreservedly I do feel we are not able to beat them.
  5. Strike a blow for rich commodities brokers everywhere comrade.
  6. Wurzel, I agree 100%. But as Mark points out its who buy and sell to each other. If the vast majority of house buyers (BTL or OO) expect HPI then each buyer will expect to pay more than the previous price. they also expect to sell more than the price they now pay. Likewise when the vast majority of buyers expect falling prices they will be "canny bargain hunters". The trick therefore is to see when the vast majority change their views. I think this is the importance of items like this in the media (even if it is rubbish and badly written DM twaddle). IMHO sentiment is slowly changing.
  7. Dull 3 bed semi. Beige. Decorated with little or no imagination. Located in a boring estate of similar looking property. Overlooks weed infested unkempt grass laughingly called a "lawn". Double glazed but still drafty. Gas central heating with badly placed radiators causing hot spots and cold just in from of the TV point in lounge. Rusty Sky dish. Garage a bit smaller than a Focus. OIRO £348,000 Reality sucks.
  8. Banks don't think. The 2007 crash was flagged up in flashing neon lights but "no-one" saw it coming. Lloyds bought up a chain of estate agents just before the last (now forgotten) crash. The smartest people in the banks are working on some crazy new fraud not looking at the real world.
  9. I hope you are right, but I don't think the banks can take the losses and I don't think many BTL can cope with just a bit bigger mortgage. A lot of them have no job other than rental income so cannot service a mortgage. I think a major correction in house prices will return the UK to negative growth (the recent much trumpeted GDP growth is due to population growth not any recovery as such). This will affect sentiment both in the general market and in the business sector and become a downward spiral. If it's just the UK then maybe we will weather it. If it is a more global event then thing
  10. Excellent point. I think this sums up a lot of people's viewpoint. They might even be "right" in the respect that prices (at least here in the UK) have been held up by hitherto unimaginable amounts of government intervention by the free market, small government Tory party and it's many pro free market admirers. All that QE money has to go somewhere and handing it out to the Tory faithful as they read their DT over the morning cornflakes is a sharp move by the chancellor/election strategist (is that the wrong way round?) We know "the other lot" are just as fond of the same set of lies about
  11. One of the main problems of rising rents IMHO is that rents will have to go up at the end of an AST. This means (if LL are to achieve their goals) an increase in the churn of tenants. Any rise in rent will be met with an increase in voids so the overall revenue effect is still problematic until (as mentioned above) there is no one left to pay the top sector rents (or it becomes cheaper to buy and the better off renters buy). The BTL mob will certainly try to put rent up to cover their IR rise, but this may not be completely possible in the longer term. The collapse is a problem waiting for
  12. Yes. That would be the the best short explanation of all HPI since 1997. +1
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