Mikael_Gorbachev

What rubbish. A pakistani goverment official publication. link: http://www.mopw.gov.pk/publications/pplan/Chap2.htm Population Size (in million) 144 Births per 1000 Population 30 Annual Population Growth Rate 2.1 Average Family Size (No. of children) 4.8 Population Doubling Time 33 Percentage of Couples Using Contraception 30 Maternal Deaths per 100,000 Births 350-500 GNP per capita (US $.) 429 Source: NIPS, Islamabad January 2002 The reason for this alarming state of affairs is the cumulative effect of decades of neglect. Tragically, our country’s leadership, with the exception of President Ayub Khan, failed to accord sufficient level of priority to the crucial issue of population. Study of the situation in Indonesia makes one realize how a leader’s vision and political will – in this case President Suharto’s – can propel even a large, widely dispersed third world nation towards effecting a successful family planning programme to improve the quality of life of its people. In Iran, ruled by so-called "“Islamic fundamentalists"” a visionary approach has helped launch a truly effective population programme, with family planning even being propagated in mosques by the Imams. In the process, the population growth rate in Iran, which used to be significantly higher, is now well below Pakistan. A comparison drawn with Bangladesh is also depressing.

Dr Bubb, I agree that demographics plays a key role in medium to long term property prices. What do you think will be the role of immigration in all this? In my opinion, after 2010, when Alright_Jack start to realise that immigration is necessary and start welcoming immigrants (e.g. Germany now has done a complete U turn on immigration policy and the general population is in support of it due to labour shartages that even the far right finds it hard to convince people otherwise), don't you think that due to a head start of the west in industrialisation and availability of knowledge based jobs that this will continue to attarct people from other countries. Or do you think that 'would be immigrants' will stick to their countries due to increasing living standards and growing industry in their own countries?

Couldn't agree more. The risk (wee bit of price fluctuation) of ownership on this margin doesn't make sense.

Rents won't rise till wages rise.

You see previously, in the last 4 years or so, house prices to wage ratio has been high. Everything else was okay (running your car, council tax etc.). House prices stood out of sync with everthing else. Now when you see restuarant bills to wage ratio rising, do you think that restuarant bills should come down because wage hasn't increased? The answer is house prices do not stand out overpriced as much as before. Other things are catching up. It's the other way round now. Time for wage increases.

They will keep renting. BTL will cover FTB absence.

Frugalista, Check my earlier post. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ndpost&p=262132

How so? When you see resturant bills rising you know it's general inflation. Inflation cycle is like this: First house prices ---> Service costs -----> wage rises. Next in line is wage rises. Basically when you see service costs going up the argument that house prices are over valued becomes weaker and weaker. By service costs I mean things like: Getting your car fixed, car servicing, council tax, transportation costs (coach tickets to Heathrow) etc.

Maybe but Euro is a fine judgement. Euro countries are net trade positive. They are robust and as such the any currency backed by a strong economy is a sure bet. So if you don't want to buy a house and you have savings, go to your local bank, open a euros account and wait for as long as you like to purchase a house. By all this reckless lending, will come huge defaults and hence the devaluation of the pound. Then convert your euros into pounds again and easily buy a house. Simple isn't it.

You have two options. 1. Buy gold or 2. Convert your savings into a currency of which the central banks are serious about inflation. e.g. Euro. Option 2 is in my opinion much better. Option 1 is open to speculation of gold price. We live in times when productive support the unproductive. Debtors steal from savers.

Goverment tells many lies, one which is CPI. Now buy a house ASAP, get a 15 year fixed mortgage, kick back and enjoy. See how your debt will be eroded by infaltion and you will practically get the house for free. This is a goverment that awards debtors and penalises savers. Can't you see how these 20 somethings are financing their world wide travel trips on credit cards and let alone paying those debts back, they can't even attempt to stop them from growing. Whoose purse is that coming from? Yours.

Eaten by inflation my dear friend. Inflation figures are a lie. Soon cost of services will start to show that as well (e.g. Restaurant bills).

Don't place too much trust in inverted curves. Following link is worth a read: http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle....Y-INVERSION.xml

HPC is not going to happen. Interest rates are on their way down again this year. Inflation is near 2% and oil prices are on their way down.

My idea is to buy ASAP and get a 15 year fixed mortgage.