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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Skippysb

  1. Anecdotal and why I'm not surprised by the apparent rise in this index. I've been looking to buy in Horsham area, West Sussex for about 2 months. There is virtually no supply of quality housing whatsoever. On the rare occasion that something half decent comes along it goes to highest bids resulting in crazy offers over the asking price. I myself have bid over the asking price on 2 occasions and could not believe someone was bidding more - and I seriously thought I was being crazy. Having said that the majority of stock is rubbish and isn't moving at all. The current upward trend is nothing more than classic low supply/quality symptom in a very stagnant market. Only needs 2 crazy people to make a housing boom out of one house.
  2. I don't fully agree. Applying a seasonal adjustment curve to the data is OK as an aid to interpretation and provides an interpretation based on 'expert judgement' however applying it to a monthly figure without mentioning the actual data is a fiction. Did house prices rise in December as stated or did they not? I suspect they did not. They could say 'house prices fell in December, however this is to be expected at this time of year and when seasonality is applied .....' Etc. but choose not to. What are these indexes for, ultimately? Having said that I haven't tried to find the raw Nationwide data, I was just very surprised to see the ONS raw data recently and noted the decrease was quite marked and not 'as we are' compared to the previous year for the same period. I felt that ONS had not represented the data objectively in its press release.
  3. Nice of them to 'seasonally adjust' the data for us before releasing it. We wouldn't want to get our brains hurt by looking at the actual data and interpreting it ourselves. When the ONS published its latest data recently, they also decided to seasonally adjust the interpretation for press release purposes so they show a monthly rise. However the data tables clearly showed a c.1% fall in prices for the month. Does anyone think that if prices rise, as they expect in the spring, that they will seasonally adjust the increases down or simply tell us prices are booming again?
  4. Here's one to watch. I used to live in the flat below this loft conversion. I would pay half even in this market and still be ripped off. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/34375510#1d7xxGkTRX0u1IZs.97
  5. Just out of interest, does anyone know what proportion of the mortgage market Nationwide represents? It seems to me that they extrapolate a lot from this data when surely they are only a few thousand mortgage approvals per month?
  6. 'Natural' falls following the unnatural increases? Soft language indeed however prices are falling and they need to say something to avoid looking silly when it comes out in the Nationwide Rampimg Index. They do lend high income multiples and long term mortgages too so risky business
  7. You just have to learn not to listen to the estate agents. Every property apparently has people queuing around the corner to rent it but in my experience about 30% of the properties in my part of West London are available to rent all of the time. My landlord didn't put my rent up one penny this year in West London even though it was written into the contract that they could (whether that is actually actionable is a whole other story). A good tenant is worth more than a month missed rent and a potentially unreliable extra £50 a month just to get someone else in the door.
  8. Rents do not necessarily go up if interests rates go up. BTL is the fashion of the day but there are many many times more experienced landlords who have no mortgage or a very old and therefore low mortgage who can be competitive. People need the income to afford rent rises. Yes you can always find someone to pay the rent in a popular area but not everywhere is desirable all of the time. Those BTLers who buy at the top of the cycle might have no choice but to sell up. Whether there is enough of them to make much of a difference I couldn't tell but if you get a 5% yield on a 15% deposit you don't have much wiggle room when your tenant flashes a 24 month tenancy agreement at you or the flat next door is on the market for less than you can afford to rent at.
  9. Anecdotal I know but I have 2 colleagues at work who have over the past year bought 2 BTL properties each in 'up and coming' areas of London. Every day I hear how the paper value has gone up by "enormous amounts". It also turns out they are getting around a 3% yield on rent. So in my view just breaking even if you consider the risks of repair and maintenance. So they must have fairly high LTV. What happens to these amateur BTL landlords if the market falls by say 5%? Do they panic and sell or take the risk that rents won't fall? One of them is on the Zero Hedge website every lunchtime and I can see a bead of sweat just growing on his forehead. Finding BTL tougher than he thinks? Another colleague had his house under offer but last week was asked to reduce the price by the buyer. All anecdotal but maybe just maybe something is in the air.........
  10. It a converted staircase. You have to admire all of the things they have converted the staircase into especially considering the builder had to use a set square modified for the 70* angles. Sit and enjoy breakfast on the stairs whilst looking at your wall which is at a funny angle.
  11. The point from my POV is that this just isn't my problem. Mummy and daddy have committed the criminal (it should be criminal) offence of borrowing more than they can afford. I couldn't give a stuff about them. I am very offended that they chose to wheel out a couple of kids whose lives they are effectively threatening to ruin due to an unbelievable, arrogant self serving attitude to debt, presumably to win my emotional support. Make them bankrupt and send them to prison. What do they think will happen when interest really go up?
  12. Don't overthink what Osborne says, he is a simple soul. His comments are aimed squarely at that part of the electorate who want to believe that house price rises are a good thing. They want to believe that the home they bought will go up in value forever and 10 years is a nice safe period of time for a simple soul. It's about votes not economics.
  13. Credit Crunch 2 is the black swan that everyone has already met. That's how truly stupid this whole debarkle is. I spoke to a Barclays actuary last year and he told me the industry just can't make the numbers add up. Either the debt is inflated away over 20+ years or it gets called in and we all go under for a second time. Everyone knows values are too high but the alternative is economic Armageddon for the finance industry.
  14. The Nationwide lend big income multiples and long term mortgages way over 25 years. These are inflationary sales tactics, get the lends in now and worry about the risk later. It's no surprise then that Nationwide borrowers have a bit more to offer and considering how many panicking potential buyers are out there (must buy now before it's too late!!) it's no surprise that they publish these figures. What we are really seeing is a lender adding risk to its mortgage book based on a gamble that the state will continue to support house price inflation.
  15. I live in Chiswick and I would say that you are right about rent prices. My landlord had not increased the rent this year which makes sense as other properties in the same block now going at slightly less. There was a big push by landlords and EAs to hike rents in the area by c. 10% last year so it might feel a little lighter today but prices remain out of reach of majority hence lots of shops closing on Chiswick High Street as the incoming population doesn't shop on the street - lots of very rich foreign money has been snapping up all of the properties whilst the traditional Chiswick family is off to Kent and Surrey. I had a look at house prices this week and very poor quality 3 bed semis are being advertised at 800k+. You'd have to be a prize idiot to buy one, it just isn't good value. 2014 will be very interesting indeed. I don't know anyone who isn't truly fed up with the property price situation and yes I am a successful professional but you need to be cash rich to get into this market and I don't have 400k for a deposit. Who does? Not Joe Public that's for sure, so where is he going to live?
  16. To have a mortgage less than 2% you must have a huge deposit relative to value. Not very representative. You can't get a sniff at a mortgage better than 3.5% with a 20% deposit. Considering you can't get an even half decent 2 bed flat in a half decent area for less than 400k in London the maths don't stack up for the vast majority.
  17. If I remember my Data Protection training correctly you have a choice about whether or not your data is stored and you can choose to have it removed. It must be kept up to date and only for the purpose it was originally intended for or for purposes you have specifically agreed to (it may be in the small print when you sign up with the agent e.g. You may have agreed for it to be kept for direct marketing purposes). Try the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO) website for more information. It would be illegal for them to hold your data indefinitely without your permission although I suspect they would be allowed a reasonable amount of time to delete it. Not being able to delete would be a significant audit issue. Ultimately data protection breeches are criminal offenses,
  18. True, but the LR figures are for August when there was a lot of ramping going on. Also of note, that the most recent Right Ramp figures actually showed falling asking figures in London, which they laughed off as a summer holiday blip preferring to triple growth forecasts instead.
  19. Having read the usual media fluff about the various HPI's out there I note that the Land Registry figures came out yesterday and appear to tell a fairly different story. + 0.1 August and + 1.3% YOY. This is markedly different from the +5% or more YOY that all the headlines seem to show (e.g. Nationwide). So what do people think? I know some of you will point to the shortcomings of the index but it seems to be based on far more grounded statistics (actual sold prices) than the others. So why no coverage? Is it just not sexy enough? If you take out London, whole of England and Wales and even the SE have at best flat or falling house prices when measured v inflation.
  20. I currently rent in Chiswick, which I know is a very expensive area even for West London, but I love it. Have lived here for 5 years. Will move next year when the contract is up as I will refuse to pay another huge hike in rent. If you are thinking of buying in the area be aware that the majority of buyers here are overseas investors buying up property to rent to people like me. A friend described the experience of flat hunting in west London as like going to an auction to buy a vase for your mother only to discover that the Crown Prince of Dubai had turned up and wants it for his wife. However, Acton is less expensive in this area and you should get something in your budget if you persevere. Will the market hold out? I doubt it if you look over 10 years. Too much to go wrong. Interest rates must go up and then all this BTL will go on the market as investors go elsewhere. Having said that, if you have friends here and can afford to take the risk it may be the right thing to do, for you Beware the estate agents though. They look very pleased with themselves at the moment. Big kipper ties seems to be the thing. You cannot trust them and they will make you want to throw up. Good luck
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