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House Price Crash Forum

Skippysb

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About Skippysb

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  1. Anecdotal and why I'm not surprised by the apparent rise in this index. I've been looking to buy in Horsham area, West Sussex for about 2 months. There is virtually no supply of quality housing whatsoever. On the rare occasion that something half decent comes along it goes to highest bids resulting in crazy offers over the asking price. I myself have bid over the asking price on 2 occasions and could not believe someone was bidding more - and I seriously thought I was being crazy. Having said that the majority of stock is rubbish and isn't moving at all. The current upward trend is nothing more than classic low supply/quality symptom in a very stagnant market. Only needs 2 crazy people to make a housing boom out of one house.
  2. I don't fully agree. Applying a seasonal adjustment curve to the data is OK as an aid to interpretation and provides an interpretation based on 'expert judgement' however applying it to a monthly figure without mentioning the actual data is a fiction. Did house prices rise in December as stated or did they not? I suspect they did not. They could say 'house prices fell in December, however this is to be expected at this time of year and when seasonality is applied .....' Etc. but choose not to. What are these indexes for, ultimately? Having said that I haven't tried to find the raw Nationwide data, I was just very surprised to see the ONS raw data recently and noted the decrease was quite marked and not 'as we are' compared to the previous year for the same period. I felt that ONS had not represented the data objectively in its press release.
  3. Nice of them to 'seasonally adjust' the data for us before releasing it. We wouldn't want to get our brains hurt by looking at the actual data and interpreting it ourselves. When the ONS published its latest data recently, they also decided to seasonally adjust the interpretation for press release purposes so they show a monthly rise. However the data tables clearly showed a c.1% fall in prices for the month. Does anyone think that if prices rise, as they expect in the spring, that they will seasonally adjust the increases down or simply tell us prices are booming again?
  4. Here's one to watch. I used to live in the flat below this loft conversion. I would pay half even in this market and still be ripped off. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/34375510#1d7xxGkTRX0u1IZs.97
  5. Just out of interest, does anyone know what proportion of the mortgage market Nationwide represents? It seems to me that they extrapolate a lot from this data when surely they are only a few thousand mortgage approvals per month?
  6. 'Natural' falls following the unnatural increases? Soft language indeed however prices are falling and they need to say something to avoid looking silly when it comes out in the Nationwide Rampimg Index. They do lend high income multiples and long term mortgages too so risky business
  7. You just have to learn not to listen to the estate agents. Every property apparently has people queuing around the corner to rent it but in my experience about 30% of the properties in my part of West London are available to rent all of the time. My landlord didn't put my rent up one penny this year in West London even though it was written into the contract that they could (whether that is actually actionable is a whole other story). A good tenant is worth more than a month missed rent and a potentially unreliable extra £50 a month just to get someone else in the door.
  8. Rents do not necessarily go up if interests rates go up. BTL is the fashion of the day but there are many many times more experienced landlords who have no mortgage or a very old and therefore low mortgage who can be competitive. People need the income to afford rent rises. Yes you can always find someone to pay the rent in a popular area but not everywhere is desirable all of the time. Those BTLers who buy at the top of the cycle might have no choice but to sell up. Whether there is enough of them to make much of a difference I couldn't tell but if you get a 5% yield on a 15% deposit you don't have much wiggle room when your tenant flashes a 24 month tenancy agreement at you or the flat next door is on the market for less than you can afford to rent at.
  9. Anecdotal I know but I have 2 colleagues at work who have over the past year bought 2 BTL properties each in 'up and coming' areas of London. Every day I hear how the paper value has gone up by "enormous amounts". It also turns out they are getting around a 3% yield on rent. So in my view just breaking even if you consider the risks of repair and maintenance. So they must have fairly high LTV. What happens to these amateur BTL landlords if the market falls by say 5%? Do they panic and sell or take the risk that rents won't fall? One of them is on the Zero Hedge website every lunchtime and I can see a bead of sweat just growing on his forehead. Finding BTL tougher than he thinks? Another colleague had his house under offer but last week was asked to reduce the price by the buyer. All anecdotal but maybe just maybe something is in the air.........
  10. It a converted staircase. You have to admire all of the things they have converted the staircase into especially considering the builder had to use a set square modified for the 70* angles. Sit and enjoy breakfast on the stairs whilst looking at your wall which is at a funny angle.
  11. The point from my POV is that this just isn't my problem. Mummy and daddy have committed the criminal (it should be criminal) offence of borrowing more than they can afford. I couldn't give a stuff about them. I am very offended that they chose to wheel out a couple of kids whose lives they are effectively threatening to ruin due to an unbelievable, arrogant self serving attitude to debt, presumably to win my emotional support. Make them bankrupt and send them to prison. What do they think will happen when interest really go up?
  12. Don't overthink what Osborne says, he is a simple soul. His comments are aimed squarely at that part of the electorate who want to believe that house price rises are a good thing. They want to believe that the home they bought will go up in value forever and 10 years is a nice safe period of time for a simple soul. It's about votes not economics.
  13. Credit Crunch 2 is the black swan that everyone has already met. That's how truly stupid this whole debarkle is. I spoke to a Barclays actuary last year and he told me the industry just can't make the numbers add up. Either the debt is inflated away over 20+ years or it gets called in and we all go under for a second time. Everyone knows values are too high but the alternative is economic Armageddon for the finance industry.
  14. The Nationwide lend big income multiples and long term mortgages way over 25 years. These are inflationary sales tactics, get the lends in now and worry about the risk later. It's no surprise then that Nationwide borrowers have a bit more to offer and considering how many panicking potential buyers are out there (must buy now before it's too late!!) it's no surprise that they publish these figures. What we are really seeing is a lender adding risk to its mortgage book based on a gamble that the state will continue to support house price inflation.
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