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Pablo-silver or lead?

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Everything posted by Pablo-silver or lead?

  1. The gass is always greener...................... Many wage slaves saddled with an omnipresent sense of “so much more of life’s millstone to tread”, ahead of them in Britain. View a life in the sun with rose tinted glasses, as if to blind. This rose tinted view is encouraged and enhanced by the polar opposites of what people want to escape from and what they believe they are escaping to. The question is what sort of people are leaving? Well it seems everyone really, no doubt seduce by the grass is greener promises of the lifestyle media, ably lead by Channel 4’s ‘A Place in the Sun’ and ‘Pay off your mortgage in a Year’ (by seemingly trebling it to buy over priced property abroad on the assurance of a commissioned sales person that it’s a good investment, Doh!!!). BBC 2 runs Channel 4 a close second with their ‘Get a new Life!’ try before you buy emigration program. The people leaving can be loosely categorised into three groups broadly defined by age. Firstly we have the twenty to early thirty age group. This group has little equity in property (or in some cases just the frothy, ephemeral equity of the last few years), little savings and in many cases carry substantial debts. They can be broadly sub divided into two groups, ‘U’ and ‘non U’. Many of the ‘U’ ones have only gone to university as part of New Labour’s social experiment to drastically increase the percentage of school leavers going in to higher education. They’ve attended university in the hope of obtaining a degree that will increase their value in the jobs market sufficiently to allow them to repay their accumulated debts before they retire at 75. Then there’s the ‘non U’s, that haven’t fecklessly wasted their time borrowing money to fund, ten a penny new fangled Media Studies qualification or the like. Instead they have been moving between the meaningless, low skill and poorly paid service sector jobs. Seemingly the number of which, our increasingly consumerist and globalised society creates ad-infinitum. Although working and earning, this second group have not escaped contributing to this country’s huge personal debt mountain. Unfortunately they’ve earned just enough to gain a credit rating sufficient to run up huge credit and store cards debts. These people are now having to compete even harder for the ‘Macjobs’, with Poles and Latvian’s. Take a look on some of the immigration, expat and debt help web forums and you’ll find many questions like this. “I left university two years ago with debts that are accumulating rapidly. I’ve found difficulty in obtaining a job commensurate with my academic achievements” (no one told them that it would be a struggle to get a graduate job on £30,000 a year with the likes of Citicorp, BP or McKinsey et al, with a double first in Appalachian clog dancing and modern Macramé Weaving from acme chavsville poly!). “Also my boyfriends on minimum wage and has unsecured personal debts of £12k. As we can’t afford property in the UK, we’re thinking of moving to Aya Napa, Cyprus as we like the club scene, will our creditors come after us?’!!!!” This government is belatedly trying to reverse it’s misguided policy of university education for all, by hiking up tuition fee’s to levels that make the prospective accumulated debts outweigh any potential benefits. After all who wants to start life with a £25k millstone of debt around their neck? With average property prices approaching £200k, rapidly rising living costs and an average wages of around £20k taking home ownership out of the reach of a generation. Whilst at the same time they’re being told to save more, for longer, for a lower pension. With real wage growth being suppressed by fiddled inflation figures, and an open door immigration policy which is flooding the country with cheap Eastern European labour. A whole generation are being disenfranchised by a bunch of media spin doctoring, politically correct, celebrity struck, champagne socialistas, unfettered by an effective opposition. If you think the Poles and Latvians will work for peanuts wait until the Bulgarians, Romanians and Moldavians arrive! I could go on............ Pablo Silver or Lead?
  2. link to another thread. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=44311 You can buy property in some of the most desirable areas of Florida -30% below peak prices. And with up to 10 years supply in some areas prices are only going one way. Pablo Silver or Lead? Oh! and Spain and Ireland just got underway!
  3. In the US on sale the proceeds of a property go through a Title Agent for distribution to the mortgage company, vendor etc. However a proportion is automatically withheld in the case of none US nationals to ensure that the vendor pays capital gains tax and that all other Sales taxes/tourist development taxes etc are up to date for every year of ownership. There is no escaping these taxes in the US if you're a UK owner. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  4. So does this story still stand up? if so wheres the info/link to back it up? Pablo Slver or Lead?
  5. Can anyone please direct me to further press or official reporting on the topic. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  6. Can anyone confirm/deny this? Can anyone put up a link that give this any validity? Thank's in advance. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  7. “Grandma if property in the UK today is such a great investment why are you selling your three” and moving to Spain???? To all of us in our late 40’s +, have you ever wondered whose paying for the majority of the paper wealth we have accumulated in our properties? It could of course be us. We work hard, we are smart and we have bought up property assets over the last 25 years because we can, as they are a good investment and we get those assets to work for us. But the people we have to thank the most are the under 40’s. If it was not for the under 40’s willingness to take on ever larger (in real terms) debts over the last 6 years or so, as they stretch to get on the ladder, or move up the ever widening rungs, the whole ‘free wealth creation’ thing that is the UK property market, would grind to a halt. Now we can’t have that, so the lending institutions must come up with ever more innovative ways of assisting aging FTB (Ave age 34) or new wet back BTL’s, to take on huge debts so they can invest in and share this opportunity with us! Available for their signing pleasure,the market allready offers 6 x income, self cert, 125% loan to value, interest only, 40 year term……… So what next? What we have witnessed over the last 12 years or so is the biggest transfer of wealth to a couple of generations by a couple of generation’s willingness to take on ever riskier debts. Lets just hope we can convince the current generation of twenty something’s to keep the gravy train going. Recent research has shown that around 39% of all people in the UK between the ages of 24 and 64 are considering leaving the UK at some time in the future to live/work/retire/semi-retire abroad. Ironically the very thing that allows a lot of the older respondents to fund their ‘escape’ (namely house price inflation), is also the reason many under 35’s are giving for considering going abroad. “Older people have seen their wealth treble in ten years thanks to soaring property prices while young adults have become poorer, the Bank of England says today. Those between 55 and 64 have been the biggest winners, with the boom in the property market helping their average wealth increase to a record £150,000. But an alarming report from the Bank says the young, which includes everybody under 34, are the biggest losers. Over the last decade, their net financial wealth has collapsed to close to zero because so many have been unable to climb on to the property ladder.” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...n_page_id=1770 Between 2001 and 2003 the FED poured extra tequila into the punch. They then let us party too long = big hangover. So in the UK do we think Gordon Brown, the MPC and Gordon Browns successor at the treasury can keep ‘UK property party PLC’ going and if so how?
  8. Wrongmove buyers disappeared at the same time as a lot of people chose to sell. No buyers lots of seller = falling prices. This started in Autumn 2005. People only started talking about the subprime problem a year after that. Ironicaly I know quite a few buyers (Brits) that although AAA credit rating were offered and took sub prime mortgages simpley because they offered low initial headline rates, and thats what the broker sold them (must have beem higher commission). Pablo Silver or Lead?
  9. Looks like Mr Boom and Bust Greenspan is seriously suggesting that if US prices go back up 10%, all will be ok. Is he seriously suggesting that owners should mew out this 10% equity to pay the increased mortgage payments as the ARM’s reset higher? I don’t get it! “Mr Greenspan said that woes of sub-prime lenders were unlikely to spill over into the wider economy unless housing prices fell again.” And he predicted that if house prices went up by 10%, "the sub-prime mortgage problem would disappear." Prices in the previously hot markets are falling by the day. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6457471.stm
  10. Treasury = Poison Chalice, Alistair Darling or Jack Straw? Pablo Silver or Lead?
  11. Even at the bottom of the US I/R cycle normal mortgage rates un the US were around 5 to 5.5% (30 year fixed). The only mortgages that were lower were the ARM's with low initial teaser rates ( with barge a pole touch don't them). You really do have to look else where for the reasons of the US crash. I/R played their part but are not the whole story. Pablo Silver ofr Lead?
  12. It is now...... Time is nearly up. The merry whistle blower in the middle is checking his watch………… and the Fat lady is on stage and clearing her thoat.... Anyone that thinks the UK is imune is a fool. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home If you thought a 5 bed air conditioned 2500 sq ft pool villa in Florida was cheap/great value at £170K in 2005. How about the same property for £70k in 2008! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  13. dogbox your attitude is the right one to have to give youeself the best chance of success, business like no emotion to cloud things. The vast majority of Brits buying abroad are mug punters that sign then worry as opposed to worry then sign. My comment on Business is in regards to places like Florida where if you are going to let the property out you need an occupational and a Dept of Hotel license, specialist insurance and generate rental customers yourself (as the management company and Real Estate Agent that sold it won't). Also in place Like Bulgaria etc you have to set up a ltd entity to hold the title.
  14. When dealing with third party/middlemen/sales agents or direct with the Developer It’s..... Caveat Emptor A few basic rules to remember when investing in property abroad:- 1. At least take the same level of care and caution when buying property in a foreign country as you would in the UK (i.e. employ a subject mater expert lawyer to advise/act on your behalf, as opposed to one recommended by a vested interest (VI), or rely on a commissioned sales person). 2. Take everything people with a VI’s (i.e. developer/sales agents or a lawyer recommended by them) say with a large pinch of salt and test their statements against factual/market reality (do your own due diligence (DD) ). 3. If the price/deal seems too good to be true it usually is. 4. Always take into account the cost of buying and selling when doing your DD. In places like Spain and the US these can be high and erode your profit or increase your loss. Also gain a detailed/realistic budget of the running costs of the property and taxes you will incur as an absentee owner. Investment properties abroad always cost more to own/run and generate lower income than budgeted for. 5. Never pay over your deposit unless you have a bona fide Bank Guarantee or it’s held in escrow. To pay the deposit into the developers/sales agents cash flow is to invite disaster, let other mugs do this and move on. 6. Take time to research what drives the market locally (both historically and currently) e.g. Take Florida as an example: Average annual property price rises in Florida historically being 3 to 4 % per annum and with 2004/05 being circa 15% and 27% respectively, and with interest rates being raised every month it was ‘buyer beware time’. Remember fundamentals need to underpin the market and locals/local economics can’t afford the prices wet back Brits seem willing to pay. There wont always be a 'greater fool' to off load to. 7. Never believe that your property has gone up just because the developer is charging new buyers ‘fresh off the plane’ a higher price than you paid six months or so earlier. Resale’s abroad (especially where there’s overdevelopment and/or, a none existent/weak resale market), do not command ‘new property premiums’ and can take years to sell if incorrectly priced. Bulgaria is a classic example of where Brits have paid £50k for 2 bed apartments and think they’ve made £10k profit because the developer is selling the next phase at £60k, only to find they can’t even find a resale buyer at their original purchases price. Many also made the mistake of taking the developers advice to buy two units, one to keep and one to sell at a profit!! 7. Buying a property abroad is not a ‘passive’ investment; you’re starting a business the main asset of which in hundreds or in Florida’s/Caribbean’s case thousands of miles away. Buyer beware! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  15. The ‘Open University of Life’ is just about to start a course in the UK and Ireland, in:- Market economics, Fundamentals and Mean Revision, The psychology of the herd, Contextual analysis of Risk and the Frightening Power of Leverage when sentiment turns. Not many will get a Double First 1:1 but 100’s of 1,000’s will have a big ‘student’ debt!!!! With the US, Southern Spain and now Ireland giving us advanced warning; Never in the field of irrational exuberance have so many apparently educated intelligent people exposed themselves financially, so much, in so shorter space of time. Looking back it’s all going to seem so obvious!!! Pablo Silver or Lead?
  16. lopin this is why the only way is down for the forseeable future http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNew...FEATURE_economy Pablo Silver or Lead?
  17. rondy are you looking at land or pre built. I don't know the areas on that area of The Atlantic side that well but at current exchange rates worth a recce trip. Who knows when the bottom will come? To give yourself the best chance of recognising it you have to follow the big picture/stats on sales v inventory, days on the market and prices. I would also bench mark and follow specific properties in your chosen areas of interest. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  18. Lopin the answer is NO. Florida is only at the begining of the price falls. Wer'e down about 10 to 20% from the autumn 2005 peak. On many STR sub-divisions around US192/US27/Lake wilson road/Davenport, there is 5 to 10 years supply of resales at current demand. Repos/distressed sales won't peak until 2008/09. Discretionary buyers don't buy property in a falling market. All the 'non vested interest' data points to this. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  19. I have been involved in the background research/production. My understanding is the programe has been put back a week so a few items can be 'backed off/stood up' with the lawyers. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  20. frug you're spot on. It hasn't been I/R increases alone thats caused the US crash. I cant fully explaine it. I was in Florida when the market turned (autumn 2005) people just stopped buying and lots started trying to sell !!! answers on a post card? Pablo Silver or Lead?
  21. Seven years after the stock-market bubble busted, the troubles in the housing market look strikingly familiar. In fact, everything is going according to the textbook -- the textbook in this case being Charles Kindleberger's 1978 classic, "Manias, Panics, and Crashes." http://users2.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?m...0282726601.html We a’int seen nothing yet. Pablo Silver or Lead?
  22. All a sustained period of low I/R’s (by historical standards), the constant slackening of lending criteria and failure the to price in risk over the last 5 years or so has done, is cause HPI that is not underpinned by fundamentals (wages/yields). In their rush to join in/not get left behind people have taken on debts that relative to their incomes are at historical (and unsustainable) highs. This is an artificially cheap debt fuelled boom. Due to the size (not the current cost) of the debts, I/R’s, lending criteria and the price of risk does not need to revert to anywhere near the mean, to cause the bust which will follow. If anyone believes that the UK will remain immune to the coming storm from the west is deluding themselves.
  23. It's very real in Florida http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/...-home-headlines Pablo Silver or Lead?
  24. Invest Star you appear to have been in the market for a while and still to a greater or lesser degree invested. What in your opinion caused the Florida property market (like for like, I'm not refering to adding value by developing) to diverge from its long term annual growth of 2-4% per annum in 2001. When for several years it went into double didgit growth and then rose even further in 2004/05? Also what happened in the autumn of 2005 to halt this and put it in reverse? And what is your prognosis for the market going forward into 2008/9 and why? Pablo Silver or Lead?
  25. Invest Star For the avoidance of doubt I ‘m a trained Real Estate agent who has 17 years experience of the Florida/UK markets as an owner/investor/agent and property manager. I feel the gentleman doth protest too much! Read all your posts and decide whether you’re a bit too sensitive. I’d be hacked off if I’d been caught was still exposed to a market that is down between 10 and 44% with much further to go. Both the Florida Real Estate/Mortgage profession and the market will not see bottom until late 2008 at the very earliest. (the unwinding of the ARM/sub prime sector is going to hit Florida more than any other state). The migration into Florida from the North of hundred of people every day is a myth the Realtor’s trot out to talk up the market. The truth is……..the vast majority of migrants into Florida are poor white trash from the other poor southern states and the rust belt, supported by Cubans/Puerto Ricans/Dominican Republicans and Mexicans. They vast majority of these people have one thing in common they are effectively economic migrants with ‘no money to buy property’. The second group, are white, pale face, liver spot speckled, golfing retiree’s, ‘El Gringo Yankee!’ They’re called Elma, Martha, and Wilmer. Their partners Doug, Bob and Hank sport baggy shorts with elasticised waists. Their loud short sleeve shirts are set off by high browed base ball hat, displaying various tribes, USS Enterprise, Cincinnati Bengal’s (is that a curry house) and Ram Dodge Trucks. They relocate from New York, Massachusetts, Illinois and other northern states. Where the winters chill can be hard on old bones. Having ‘snowbirded’ in Florida for a few winters they sell up, leave the north eastern cities and come to the Sunshine state to live the ‘Golden Girls’ life of active retirement. I think you’ll find of the second group Florida has been loosing more (to places like Georgia and the Virginia) than it gains due to bad weather, high taxes and a deteriorating quality of life in the Sunshine State! Pablo Silver or Lead?
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