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crash test dummy

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Everything posted by crash test dummy

  1. Yep, in Watton, Norfolk where I'm looking there's a huge amount. No doubt naff.
  2. Fantastic and simple argument - thanks for this post.
  3. The real residential house prices p.12 graph 2.5 shows the last crash and the eminent one to come very clearly. crash - ladbrookes have stopped taking bets, dead cert.
  4. june 2004 18% raise in prices. 18 months later a steady drop to about 0% and -3% in East Anglia. You do read the meass media, but you don't have to take their word. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county34.stm 2.4% up for essex. So a steady fall of 15.5% in a year, and that year was the sipps non-capital gains tax. It is happening and fast. On average 1% down a month year on year, what will it be in a years time do you think? Maybe not -12% but bad and if that does happens for 2 years the you have a 25% reduction in price. As infuriating and slow as it seems your marathon
  5. I'm a firm believer that a crash and recession are on the way, but heh, you probably all know this already, if you have read my words on this site. But I like a fair discussion on things as a reality check is a good thing. My reason for this crash / recession combi is that it will happen due to energy supply. Simply put if you run an industrial country in an industrial world such as U.K. plc. having the means and energy is an amazing thing to have for the economy. Oil is number one on the purchase list if you want to compete. You make loadsa cash and save on outgoings if you have control of
  6. Ananlagy accepted. I presume when the frog boils the medium a.k.a. the water boils and bubbles. The economy is the water in this analagy, who's cooking? And they may turn the heat down for fear of complete financial evaporasion and burning their fingers through greed. But the analagy is good, it represents the media as well, many don't realise how much shizen is thrown.
  7. Thanks Timmy - more bad mass press reporting. It is starting to bore me. Maybe the industry will change - fat chance, but it's good fun catching them out. 10/10 as for once I thought they may have been honest.
  8. Indeed, had the crash ever stopped in your oppinion or were the headlines confusing you. Oil tanker analagy is appropriate so keep in there maties (no pun intended) and understand that the press is full of mistruths.
  9. Statisstics again, when there are less of the btl brigade then ftb's will comparitively be higher but not neccessarily in numbers in fact they may be down. Keep your guard up people, as they show no references with figures to my knowledge.
  10. Reuters: King says house market picking up "At present, activity in the housing market is picking up and house prices are broadly stable and that's a very satisfactory position. Let's hope we can keep it roughly there," King said. Funny that eh. picking up to near stability, if he admits it then ther's a lot of cred. He' had 11 months to say anything and he waits for the most distorted figures to claim there's been a slump. 'At present' he does't seem to hold much hope by the look of it, we're on our way. Happy new year still.
  11. Can anyone remember reading that China have done a deal with the Nigerians for oil in recent days / weeks?
  12. Include the manufacturing sector staff as well. Apparently we can't compete with the 34p per hour workers in China. Noodles anyone.
  13. What's jobs do people think are most likely to go.
  14. Who wouldn't wish to be a BTL'er when house prices drop 30 - 40%. Us not You if you bought recently. Some will get burnt - fact as they always have. When did you buy your last 3 houses and when will you buy your next 3 houses? As an investor you are right, but remember buy low sell high, and propping the market up is no-one at the moment. So the fall will come. It's getting cheap for a 3 bed new in Norfolk yet very expensive for a 1 bedroom flat. Maybe only £20K difference at times. So New will push old down. Unless Portman will give you a 100% loan to value.
  15. What do we think could cause a rapid price drop. The whole 9 yards, I guess winter has had it's oil issues but did you know that the U.S. heating bill is higher in Summer than winter, (Air Conditioning costs), and that's a big amount. So summer makes no odds to us when oil and gas is on an open market and we have run out of the stuff. Retail and Manufacturing is down big and yes we may be loosing huge amounts of jobs - there's 25% of them employed by the govt. I read and then indirect benefits from high spending job creation on top. So what will happen when govt. spending slows as Mr. Brown
  16. Anyone from Norfolk fancy meeting up and talking about this site and the inevitable. Feeling and psychology count as much as facts and figures until the excrement hits the wind extractor. Analagy from this site. Sorry to author for not referencing you. You know most of the lads here have a pint in London, the admin on the site recommend us having our own. It will be good, we could all feel very good for ouselves if we are FTB'ers.
  17. Ahh and Wow - 2006 has started in a fashion I could not have imagined, good and bad. Remember the oil defecit being longer than anything since 1980. Thus a £200m trade defecit for the U.K. from £100m up - seemingly due to oil or lack of it, and that was in October. £300 million down in 1 month. Presumably the same or worse to come. Credit crunching with Portman stopping Loan to Value mortgages of 100% late last year. Nationwide giving only 3.5 x salary - recently. Many others stopping at 4 x recently - salary. Insolvencies / liquidations and credit looking like the motha of all issue
  18. My fun with all of this is warping clear statistics. Very Obvious facts are there to be made. So can anyone tell me which areas were up and down, as maybe the ups were in far off stats fields in cheaper areas with less sales weighting. Maybe the drops were where the facts really matter. In the U.K., markets generally follow after London and surrounding areas up north. Do we have any trend leaders coming down in these negative areas, if not it's still good news as SIPPS distorted the data by putting a myth out and the pre-emptive losers of this withdrawal could have been from London or even b
  19. Duh, 30 year low in House Sales. This is not just a crack in the paintwork of the VI ******** machine, it is bad news for property investors. Think about it and get back to me. No equations or formulae for you there to struggle with. You may not see what is obvious to the rest of us,
  20. The actual trouble with hpc is not that you now look at the headlines and think there's manipulation / propaganda or what you wish to call it but that you know it is. Read the football new recently. Roy Kean is now at 4 or 5 clubs and the full American might and dedication to capture Osama has been forgotten about. p.s. did you know we (U.K. Govt.) gave Iraq £540m on an air defence system weeks after he gassed thousands of Kurds. I presume the papers printed it in bold print at the time.
  21. If you all go into it - it will become another pyramid system in time and boom and bust. Come on people, however, if your in it from the start and it goes well then your a winner, someone humour me a give me a link.
  22. YES LET'S NOT BE HASTY. THIS HOUSE'S DIRECT COMPARRISON MAY HAVE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND THE DROP COULD BE CONSIDERABLE MORE. THERE'S ALWAYS TWO SIDES. AND TO MR CRASH CO-ORDINATOR I THINK THERE'S A FEELING COMING OUT AND YES I AM EXCITED AS WELL - YOU KNOW TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A LIFE AS AN ADULT. MAYBE THIS COUNTRY WILL LET ME SUPPORT A FAMILY AND PLACE A ROOF OVER THEIR HEADS. NOT TOO MUCH TO ASK I HOPE. WHAT ABOUT A REDUCTIONS AREA ON THE SITE TO CHEER US ALL UP. THE EXPECTATIONS ARE FIRMLY ON YOUR SHOULDERS. HA HA. SERIOUSLY, SO FAR THANKS FOR A GOOD YEAR OF HOPE AND UNDERSTANDING. I NO
  23. I KNOW THAT THIS SITE HAS A TROLL SECTION BUT IT'S NOT AS MUCH THE PEOPLE THAT INTEREST ME BUT THE FACTS OR AT LEAST THE DISTORTIONS OF IT. HOUSE SPEAK LET'S SAY TAKING A GEORGE ORWELL IDEA. SO RECENTLY:- HIGH MORTGAGES APPROVALS = DEBT TRANSFERENCE. 3 MONTH RISE IN PRICES = YEAR AND 18 MONTH DOWN. FEEL FREE TO ADD ANY OF YOUR OWN COMMENTS AND WE'LL BE ABLE TO LEARN FROM EACHOTHER AND MAYBE CREATE A NEW 'HOUSING QUOTE' DICTIONARY.
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