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crash test dummy

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  1. Yep, in Watton, Norfolk where I'm looking there's a huge amount. No doubt naff.
  2. Fantastic and simple argument - thanks for this post.
  3. The real residential house prices p.12 graph 2.5 shows the last crash and the eminent one to come very clearly. crash - ladbrookes have stopped taking bets, dead cert.
  4. june 2004 18% raise in prices. 18 months later a steady drop to about 0% and -3% in East Anglia. You do read the meass media, but you don't have to take their word. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county34.stm 2.4% up for essex. So a steady fall of 15.5% in a year, and that year was the sipps non-capital gains tax. It is happening and fast. On average 1% down a month year on year, what will it be in a years time do you think? Maybe not -12% but bad and if that does happens for 2 years the you have a 25% reduction in price. As infuriating and slow as it seems your marathon wait is about to pay off, so don't give in as we are about to embark on negatives as it is for me in East Anglia. Check out the negatives here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d.../county61.stm?t and know that a trend that has not been with us in 10 years is here and growing, and that trend is house market inflationary depreciation coming to house price depreciation. So don't give up 100 yards from the end of a marathon or you'll regret the decision for many years. I get disheartened at times but when every stastistic printed is wrongly headlined and I know it I know that the wait is worth it. Read credit crunch on the main forum area and you'll feel better, I'd even make you a cuppa tea whilst you read. So Taxi-man chin up and watch the blues fade away.
  5. I'm a firm believer that a crash and recession are on the way, but heh, you probably all know this already, if you have read my words on this site. But I like a fair discussion on things as a reality check is a good thing. My reason for this crash / recession combi is that it will happen due to energy supply. Simply put if you run an industrial country in an industrial world such as U.K. plc. having the means and energy is an amazing thing to have for the economy. Oil is number one on the purchase list if you want to compete. You make loadsa cash and save on outgoings if you have control of the energy supplies as well. Life is as they say peachy - even if you're the most unproductive plc. in Europe. So we've had it good and expect Global Wealth Dominance, after all - We are British and we're used to it. But we have had Oil and Gas and Iraq for instance as well as many other sources that seem to be having unsettled times. With these changes we change. To me this is happening for many reasons. Mainly because the oil is running out and there's more fights going on in the World about it. So are we going to keep siding with the States and use force and lose diplomacy and how will this effect us if we're successful? How would it harm us if not? Where does China come in to this, they have done deals in Nigeria where there has been trouble for the oil companies. They are threatening to withdraw their cash from the Fed Reserve and that is a lot of pocket money. Iran and China are business partners and what's going to give there with the Iran war brooding. My moneys on it will happen as soon as they trade oil in non-us dollars. Iraq did this 2 months before the last War and stopped 2 months after it. This date is March so expect trouble, that's another reason why we're in debt IMO-to pay for the next crisis. U.S.A. having a spot of bother with China announcing it's cash be withdrawn incrementally. George Soros the demigod of economics expecting their housing crash in 2007 is a big blow for non believers. And America needs oil. So nicely returning to the price of Oil. At today's $68 dollar a barrel (very, very high historically) where's the positive for a non-crash or non-recession as harsh as this reality is. What this sitre represents has a really deep aspect. And back to Russia and the Gas supply issue and price wars with the Ukraine and Bulgaria this month. With Russia and China parading Military together last year there really is a lot to think about. So we have Gas wars with Russia and are about to embark on a war with a huge Chinese business partner in Iran who produces a lot of lesser grade feul. My money to win is on the guys with the big guns - our friends the U.S.A. There is much to consider in a house price crash, it's not a microcosm and the effect comes from distant sources. I've maybe put a lot of ideas together on a whim here but I don't feel I have. I feel these factors are big. I look at oil prices daily as I do this site. $68 per barrel - $80 dolars a barrel and we're done for and don't think it's better in summer. The U.S.'s heating bill in heavier going then. Is a war gonna sort it out and how big is it gonna be, as only the oil is needed.
  6. Ananlagy accepted. I presume when the frog boils the medium a.k.a. the water boils and bubbles. The economy is the water in this analagy, who's cooking? And they may turn the heat down for fear of complete financial evaporasion and burning their fingers through greed. But the analagy is good, it represents the media as well, many don't realise how much shizen is thrown.
  7. Thanks Timmy - more bad mass press reporting. It is starting to bore me. Maybe the industry will change - fat chance, but it's good fun catching them out. 10/10 as for once I thought they may have been honest.
  8. Indeed, had the crash ever stopped in your oppinion or were the headlines confusing you. Oil tanker analagy is appropriate so keep in there maties (no pun intended) and understand that the press is full of mistruths.
  9. Statisstics again, when there are less of the btl brigade then ftb's will comparitively be higher but not neccessarily in numbers in fact they may be down. Keep your guard up people, as they show no references with figures to my knowledge.
  10. Reuters: King says house market picking up "At present, activity in the housing market is picking up and house prices are broadly stable and that's a very satisfactory position. Let's hope we can keep it roughly there," King said. Funny that eh. picking up to near stability, if he admits it then ther's a lot of cred. He' had 11 months to say anything and he waits for the most distorted figures to claim there's been a slump. 'At present' he does't seem to hold much hope by the look of it, we're on our way. Happy new year still.
  11. Can anyone remember reading that China have done a deal with the Nigerians for oil in recent days / weeks?
  12. Include the manufacturing sector staff as well. Apparently we can't compete with the 34p per hour workers in China. Noodles anyone.
  13. What's jobs do people think are most likely to go.
  14. Who wouldn't wish to be a BTL'er when house prices drop 30 - 40%. Us not You if you bought recently. Some will get burnt - fact as they always have. When did you buy your last 3 houses and when will you buy your next 3 houses? As an investor you are right, but remember buy low sell high, and propping the market up is no-one at the moment. So the fall will come. It's getting cheap for a 3 bed new in Norfolk yet very expensive for a 1 bedroom flat. Maybe only £20K difference at times. So New will push old down. Unless Portman will give you a 100% loan to value.
  15. What do we think could cause a rapid price drop. The whole 9 yards, I guess winter has had it's oil issues but did you know that the U.S. heating bill is higher in Summer than winter, (Air Conditioning costs), and that's a big amount. So summer makes no odds to us when oil and gas is on an open market and we have run out of the stuff. Retail and Manufacturing is down big and yes we may be loosing huge amounts of jobs - there's 25% of them employed by the govt. I read and then indirect benefits from high spending job creation on top. So what will happen when govt. spending slows as Mr. Brown has been ordered by the European Govt. Less cash and less work so even less cash and even less work - the downward spiral begins and doesn't stop for a while as you say and exactly as the boom was recieved. More cash, more work = more cash thus more work. External factors do also lead to the cycle in this, global economic change which is bloody obvious to all but the happy consumer, and BTL'er. Yes - things will happen quick - but not overnight. If you were on this site a year ago things were happening and things were being said and the VI's were wrong and the economists right. It will be shorter and tougher in my oppinion this time as it is bigger and more severe.
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