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House Price Crash Forum


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About qejunkie

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  1. Some will be in that boat. Some will see that they have a debt they can't afford and would rather sell on the front foot rather than be repossessed.
  2. In a 60% price fall scenario there are going to be so many other yielding assets available that don't need constant attention.
  3. How is it looking for this September?
  4. Yeah that sounds like good advice.
  5. Luckily where I am the market is totally illiquid. So the chance of local chains is basically impossible. But I can imagine in some places that goes on.
  6. Yeah that's my thesis. Not really trying to make a heroic call or anything. Just circumstance and have a good deal on the table. Surely I'll find something decent within a year or so.
  7. Yes anything could happen on the coast short term but they'll be a few morons still piling in now and then when the plates stop spinning it'll bit hard. I can imagine rural Cornwall has already stalled.
  8. Any tips? FWIW I'm looking for reasons not to exchange this week on agreed sale from Boris bounce Feb price?
  9. Anyone else selling to rent right now?
  10. 1) BTL is toast and is just full of forced landlords left holding the bag 2) mortgage spreads are getting close to zero bound 3) government support packages have yet to be renewed 4) BofE and all central banks are a joke, total monetary support for asset prices now - not sure UK resi is the best way to play 5) investors/foreign buyers probably won't come in hard until we get a sterling crash Peace, qejunkie
  11. Yeah still here obersiving; but I don't post anymore. I think I laid out a pretty clear thesis back then that for the last 2.5 years played out; 1) rental yields WERE juicy 2) mortgage spreads WOULD come in 3) underlying rates WERE low, and would stay that way 4) government support WAS very evident (Carney talking about protecting house prices/HTB in full swing) 5) investors/foreign buyers WERE still coming in Every single leg of my bull thesis has now been blown away....apart from maybe 3 - but I don't think they are going to cut to negative before the crash I think it will be during or after. So gravity will drag this market down, the question is how much of the =40% since 2013 will get eaten way, a 30% draw down would only get us back to 2013 levels now. Will we see more than 30% draw down, of course we should but then everything depends on policy repsonse, what bailouts happen, whether we get negative rates this time etc etc.
  12. Go try and rent somewhere, I mean somewhere vaguely appropriate for a functioning member of society and you'll see there is no downward pressure on rents. Every now as again you'll get a 50+ block of BTL new build crop up which might dampen the odd neighbourhood but supply and demand is tight anywhere liveable. Why look at SVR? This is a penalty rate for people too lazy to re-fi. We might as well look at Wonga loans for our interest rate. So what you presented is an example with an interest rate about 250-300bps too high. If mortgage rates move that much then yes I agree it doesn't work BUT that isn't the current environment.
  13. Oh and by the way folks I don't have a vested interest in house price inflation. I would love that 50% correction to pick up my dream house. I just try and tell it like it is.
  14. Are you kidding? US government started backing mortgages when they "invented" Fannie Mae back in 1938. And capital requirements are getting stricter for banks!!
  15. Well sorry for getting you going. Those comments were made after making 2 clear points about circumstance i.e. being in a good finacial position and having an improvement in accomodation. So there were positive things to focus on. Clearly the maths of paying 50% more for a repayment mortgage vs. renting is not comparing like with like. Please prove to me I'm wrong on that front?
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