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House Price Crash Forum


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About slinky

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  1. Seeing some interesting times ahead in London at the moment. Seen some of the most ridiculous asking prices , same house back on 20% higher when did not sell last year etc. Think this may be a game of who blinks first. I'm fine about increased sales volumes when deals are being done, but the greed of some of the sellers recently popping onto the market is just astonishing. Thing is they risk sitting there and missing the prime selling time altogether, and then wondering what that popping noise in their ears was when boe eventually gets on with the business of raising rates. I find this buyer / seller power yo yo ing quite interesting stuff. Changes so quickly.
  2. The same thing happened in Spring 2004 where I lived in London, a particular moment in time when all of a sudden there was a lack of supply for whatever reason, driving up prices and leading to all that talk of bid frenzy. And from that date the market as you probably know in London stalled until end of last year. Perhaps its the same thing again, just a temporary lack of supply thing.
  3. I'm not getting too excited about one months figures in what should be a busy time of year, in particular because the rise seems to be because of a shortage in supply. When I sold in Spring 2004 in London there was exactly the same lack of supply issue going on for a few months which meant that there was a scramble by buyers and then as you know the market went dead right up until end of last year. The article talks about people not wanting to move because of the costs involved. Have to say its not sounding too healthy to me.
  4. Naa. I think no matter what tier of property you are in (superrich excepted) you are likely to find that what you think you should get for your hard earned money, and what you actually get are poles apart. I don't think that people who have 800k to spend on a property are any less aware of the total lack of value that you get from the current market that those who have say 200k. Its all just completely insane. I don't think there are any winners in terms of certain tiers of the market being crash protected. And lets face it, at all tiers of the market there are always lunatics who will vastly overpay for a property and that is up to them.
  5. Dear Frozen Out I complained as well to the BBC re their one sided view on interest rates, and comment about house prices surging in light of the land registry report and I got this response. "Surveys suggest that a clear majority of City analysts believes that interest rates are likely to be cut by a quarter percentage point during the next few months. The Land Registry survey is backward looking - analysing price developments during the last quarter of 2005. All snapshots of the housing market taken more recently suggest that prices are currently recovering... (although there are regional variations, the clear indications are that prices are going up again). Regards, Tim Weber Business Editor BBC News Interactive www.bbc.co.uk/business"
  6. Asking prices can definately be insulting. And I think if the asking price is insulting then they should expect cheeky offers. Except that it still takes quite a brass neck to do so. Its not easy in practice. We put in a crash factored offer on a property that had been around for coming up to two years. I can't tell you how rude the estate agent sounded on the phone. Immediate outraged rejection by vendors. They did not seek to negotiate at all. I know that the offer we made was one that made financial sense, and it was a pretty hefty sum, and yet we were made to feel like dregs for having dared to do so. I have no sympathy for vendors who say that they have reduced the asking by 10-20% yet can't sell. Thats already factored in in the exorbitant asking prices. Its the next 20% that they need to drop to get the thing shifted in my view. That said it only takes one person to buy a property and I keep seeing vendors lucking out and hitting the house sale jackpot. Its a risky strategy though.
  7. Dear Frozen out I completely understand the dilemma. I am a partner of a resolute HPC believer, and have become one myself. We sold to rent coming up for two years ago and have rented a couple of gorgeous places so far, the current one being one that we could not afford to buy outright ourselves. So here I am renting a gorgeous house and waiting for a crash to happen, saving money as we go, and have understood all the arguments and logical reasons why this makes sense, but from time to time I still get this strong urge to "buy" even though I know it is lunacy at the moment. I think its some sort of instinct. So if I can make some suggestions re your situation: Make sure your partner really understands the financial implications involved. Buying at the wrong time could make a huge difference to the rest of your life money wise. Show her the sums and costs involved. Listen to her and take an interest in properties, and have a look at some if thats what she wants to do, in a flat market its a good chance to get to look at lots of different properties and work out what you really want. If you find one that you both like be really diciplined and put in a low offer, have no fear of embarrassment (especially from astoundingly snotty estate agents) - its always worth a go and even if the vendors say no which they probably will at the moment they might be back at some later point. If emotions are involved, imagine the stress of living together when money is tight because you have over stretched for a property. Try to find gorgeous place to rent - where I live in London its cheaper to rent at the moment. Try out some new locations or places that are fun but perhaps not what you would buy, ie enjoy yourselves renting before "settling down" property wise.
  8. Here is something which is puzzling me. Papers keep going on about how its going to be an amazing year for city bonuses. How house prices in London will surge once again. 1) Can anyone explain why its such a good year for city bonuses when its not such a great year generally for everyone else? 2) Is it true? 3) Is there really a London House Price surge concern here - do city workers really fly out of their offices and pay more for houses because they get a bonus. I'm really interested to hear your views. Slinky
  9. TTRTR You mean you think lots of landlords will sell up soon?
  10. Maybe I've misunderstood, but is the argument that because of sell to renters, demand for rental accomodation will be in short supply, and so the cost of renting will go up? Are there really that many sell to renters out there that they will make any real difference to rental demand?
  11. Dr Bubb I think they range from 8-14% drops, most at the lower end of that range. ie uner 10%. They ain't shifting much although the odd one goes after a fair wait by the seller. There is new stock coming onto the market. Also, lots of multiple agency stuff. Estate agents telling me they are noticing more activity now as buyers are coming back to the market. They think there will be a filter of activity. I'm a bit worried that if people perceive that the interest rates have peaked there will be another frenzy but we shall see.
  12. Woody You are right, they are different areas, but Dulwich is not quite as far out, its 10 mins to London Bridge by train ie quicker than Clapham, and people who live in Clapham send their children to schools in Dulwich but then I know of folks who live in Dulwich who send their kids to a school in Clapham. The blurb from the estate agents in Dulwich is that it never crashes because of the good schools and I suppose there is more of a long term investment that folks make there because of that. Dulwich I suppose is "posher" than Clapham, but then again its surrounded by some definately not so posh areas.
  13. TTRTR, Here are some examples (largish family homes) Harold Road - drop of 200k Clapham Common Northside and The Chase - drops of 100 and 175 Belmont Road - drop of 75 and 25 Dalmore Road - drop of 175 I could go on. Sometimes the 100k drops are working and people are getting them under offer but in a chain. One house we were interested in bidding low for the estate agent tried to shore up price by saying that it had an offer near the already reduced asking but then conceded that the existing offeror was having trouble selling their house and had had to cut their asking.
  14. Where I live in south London I am seeing phase two of asking price reductions. Phase one happened at the start of the summer, and the same properties are quietly dropping the asking price for the second time again now. These are 100k-200k price drops for family houses in good locations. In another part of south london which I am interested in they are on their first set of price drops now. These get trumpeted by the estate agents as if its a massive discount. I got a cover letter this morning from an estate agent pointing out that the enclosed house had now dropped in price. Although its good it also makes me nervous when prices are slashed like this as the prices seem to be so arbitrary. But am also a bit worried about the old spring bounce back.....But to counter this there does seem to be a lot of unsold stock around so fingers crossed.
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