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Everything posted by Dr_Mibbles

  1. the French private sector is doing a lot better than the UK's, by just about every possible measure of success
  2. http://www.voa.gov.uk/corporate/RentOfficers/LHARates/april2013lha.html That table is particularly interesting. Looks like the 30th percentile rules mean that, in reality, maximum LHA in London is well below the cap in most areas for (at least) 1 and 2 bed properties.
  3. I don't know if this is true or not, however as a percentile it will increase/decrease in line with the private rental market...
  4. This is an excellent point, and one I completely forgot to mention - well noted.
  5. I think the really important point to note re: the above, is that a lot of 12 month tenancy agreements are now expiring post-cap introduction, which, in combination with the under-35 HMO change, is really driving the supply of rental properties in the more expensive inner London areas.
  6. all of those are completely lol-worthy... as if the USA has been in recession for more-or-less the last 13 years, haha
  7. There are three benefit changes which will depress rents in self-contained (non HMO) properties: 1) The raw housing benefit cap, which is £250 for a one-bed, £290 for a two bed, £340 for a three bed, and £400 for a four+ bed 2) The total benefit cap, at £26,000 a year, which includes housing benefit and all other benefits (child benefit, tax credits, council tax benefit, unemployment benefit). This will mainly impact families with several children, the majority of whom will not be unemployed households but those in low-paid work, who will be forced out of pricey areas 3) The change which forces anyone who is single and aged under 35 to live in an HMO - this is freeing up a lot of one-bed and studios in expensive parts of London There are however some perverse consequenced to this. As thousands are evicted from expensive areas of London, rents in nearby areas may increase due to demand for properties just under the housing benefit cap. There is also intense competition for HMO's which accept housing benefit claimants, which again could drive up the prices of shared properties and encourage the conversion of large houses in cheaper suburbs into HMO properties.
  8. This isn't in place yet. The reason some people in France paid "more than 100% tax" last year is because of wealth taxes, which you only pay on wealth in excess of about 1million euros. So, if someone isn't working, but is instead sitting on large piles of money, they will pay a tax rate which is technically greater than their income. We need a wealth tax in this country - something like a land value tax would work wonders deflating the property bubble.
  9. The areas mentioned have been Haringay, Enfield, Barnet, Brent. I suspect there are others, but the local authorities where people are priced out are probably trying to house people as near to they can to their old home, while remaining within the cap.
  10. Absolutely spot on - this has been widely reported. I read an article recently which stated that, in the last few months, inner London local authorities have procured over 8,000 rental properties in outer boroughs because of the benefit cap. There is a huge socio-economic shift occurring as those on housing benefit are excluded from Central London. This has pushed up prices in cheaper outer boroughs where asking prices were below the cap.
  11. It's all relative of course, but it's not expensive for Islington. The key message here is: supply hugely up, and prices falling.
  12. The Central London rental market is dramatically changing, and that change has occurred in the last few months and is now picking up pace. Six months ago I embarked on a personal quest to find a suitable one bedroom flat to rent one of the following areas: Islington, Camden, Kensington, Westminster, Hackney, and Southwark. All Central, all a bit pricey. Anyway, I couldn't find anything in a remotely nice area for less than £450 a week, and very little was on the market, it was tough. I felt that £450pw was too much for a tiny one-bed, so I gave up temporarily. I have recently embarked again on my search, as I approach a break clause in my current tenancy and would like to move. And what I am seeing is shocking me. Supply of one bedroom flats has gone through the roof, and prices have dropped. It's now possible to rent a one-bedroom flat in one of the most desirable areas of Islington for £300 a week - simply unheard of 6 months ago. And flats I remember seeing on for £450 a week are now in the £350-375 range. Searches for one bedroom flats on Rightmove (not including studios) reveal the following numbers: Islington: 1000+ properties Kensington: 1000+ properties Camden: 1000+ properties Westminster: 1000+ properties Southwark: 1000+ properties Hackney: 619 properties If I compare this to six months ago, where I was hounding estate agents and searches returned a few hundred (if that) results, the change has been dramatic. What I don't understand though, is how none of this is feeding into the media reports about 'record asking rents' etc, the press releases put out by the industry seem to be based either on old data or outright lies. Something dramatic has changed. But the PR firms working on behalf of the industry seem to be keeping very quiet indeed about what is really going on.
  13. What evidence do you have to support the notion that moderately wealthy Chinese people are lobbying the government before they spend 600k on a two-bed 'investment' in Richmond?
  14. Do you honestly, really believe that highlighting one instance where you think a publically funded scheme isn't a good use of money, that means that ALL uses of public money are going to be wasteful? Could you really be that narrow minded? Surely not. The obvious thing to spend the money on would be house building. We need about a million of them, which won't come cheap.
  15. There is a banana floating in space near Neptune. Prove I am wrong. You see, the point is anyone can write a blog, and the guy has a right-wing agenda. He isn't credible. The CBO and ONS are essentially non-partisan civil servants who define the best practice that others then follow. They are completely transparent about the way they reach their calculations and the figures are respected, peer-reviewed, and entirely robust. You cannot just grasp at crazy blogs because they suit your world view, then expect others to take you seriously. It's not how intelligent, reasoned adults behave when it comes to discussion around what should be a science.
  16. Denninger is an extreme right-wing "birther" who is utterly devoid of any economic crediblity. People really need to stop quoting him if they want to be taken seriously on here.
  17. Oh, no, I agree that foreign investors have driven up prices, but that was in the days of good yields and global financial chaos. There are now more arractive investment options, and we know two things for certain: yields on prime London are now below 2%, and prices in prime London are falling. The point that prices will carry on rising because Asian people like London and "dream of living here", even in the face of falling property value and extremely low yields, is however just not very credible, so as a claim it would need some evidence to support it.
  18. Well, that's all very subjective - how does one define 'waste'? Some people think public libraries are a 'waste of money', other people think the NHS should be abolished, etc. Who will define was is 'waste' and what isnt? What will be the criteria? There is an interdependency between the public and private sector. The public sector is very good at providing the essential services businesses need to flourish - the rule of law, a judicial system, an educated and healthy workforce, great transport infrastructure. All of that costs money, and I see no harm in investing additional money in these essential services during a period of temporary private sector weakness. Indeed, I only see benefits.
  19. You could have just replied "I have no evidence to support my view".
  20. Well it depends who you believe, a non-partisan civil service type agency, who use tried and tested methodology and have a reputation for accuracy the world over, and who operate in a completely transparent manner... or a right-wing blogger with a political agenda. If you're the kind of paranoid individual who thinks the CBO and ONS tell lies, maybe because they're part of the Illuminati or something, then there will be no reasoning with you.
  21. You've bought at new build the peak of a bubble, so expect to lose 20% of the value the moment you walk in the door (happens to all new-builds), and a further 30% when the market corrects itself, either through a crash or erosion over time, as prices revert to the mean.
  22. Clearly not what I inferred. If everyone reduces their spending to pay down debt at the same time, that creates a chain reaction in the economy as everyone has less income. This causes a recessionary downward spiral. Greece is a good example of where this has happened. By the way, try engaging with the substance of my post rather then posting dumb one-line troll comments. I thought this was supposed to be a forum for reasoned discussion?
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