geneer

TTRTR went on to post elsewhere, and can now be found posting - very rarely - on Creditcrunch. As I recall his stated reason for stepping back from the forum was either i) his wide asked him to or ii) he was spending more time with his X-box. This just happened to co-incide with the credit melt down and housing crash.

Hamish likes to call this "normal seasonal variations"

Alright there adam. So what name did you use to post under?

I'd welcome you to the forum Adamxxx. But given the fact that you're singing a very familiar song, you've clearly been here before. Sockpuppetarama!

Events seem to have proven you quite correct CCC.

House prices have been falling for the last three months of course.

You have to respect the traders. They did a bang up job in 2007.

What they didn't mention is that the "all time high" would have been even higher if £21K hadn't dropped off in september. I encountered daft hamish yesterday who was yipping and yapping about the new peak. Just a month after he was yipping and yapping about the recent new monthly peak. Strangely enough, he wasn't inclinded to talk about the latest monthly figures.

Latest ROS 28 day rolling average (as near as damn covering all of september now) shows the current Edinburgh average as £215000. Over £21K now since the transitory (and highly skewed) new peak.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

4 posts since july 09. Yeah. You're clearly all too eager to discuss facts. Nice one Spamish. Clearly your too busy angrily discussing HPC over on MSE. I note you've not been all that eager to discuss the recent ASPC stats. Honestly, how much of a plonker must you have been to still be causing hilarity now.

The ocean front developments aren't all that bad in terms of size etc. Just hugely over priced.

http://www.aspc.co.uk/Documents/HousePrices-2010Q3.pdf Q3. Doon. Not by much, but average price won't help much in, say, the city centre, where prices have nose dived around £12K

Pilton! If you want to live next to junkies and neds.

England and Wales.

Do bear in mind that the ESPC, who produce the quarterly stats above, consider them to be significantly skewed by the fact that sales volumes are low and only the bigger money no object type properties are shifting. They are expecting the scew to drop out during the end of this year, start of the next. In reality, theres a good chance your more typical ftb property is much lower than 2007. You can check out different areas and property types in the excel sheet fflump has linked.

If not the fact that 3 months make a quarter, that YOY is near to useless in the current wildly fluctuating market, and that these wild fluctuations can't really be considered seasonal variations.

Thanks Fflump. Glad my explanations were clear enough for you

Technically a correct statement, but absolutely nothing to do with what I asked. Nice smokescreen. Try again. Ah, so when you said they "look" strong you meant they aren't really strong and liable to fall apart. Good to know. Because only quarterly figures count yeah. Zzzzzzzzzzzz. I'd suggest theres £12K of evidence. And multiple statements that there is more to come. You remember? The EA commentary you've pointedly refused to discuss. Its not your disagreeing I find tedious. Its your "only bear in the village" posturing. Lets be clear, you may not think house prices will rise. Do you think house prices will fall? Cos you seem to be going all out to dispute the case. Your not a "soft lander" are you? As to ignoring your alleged "point" on statistical blah-blah-whatever, ive already pointed out that 2 months is one month shy of 3. Whilst it may not fall on one of the magical "canonical" points of the year, I'm sure you can add up a few numbers then divide by a small number for that "reliable" indicator. Anyone who thinks £35K fluctuations in house prices is "seasonal" needs to think again. And your assertions that YOY trends are, at the moment, indicative of anything other than a wildly fluctuating markert, is pretty much laughable. There you are. Glad you asked? Are you sure you're not Spamish Mcshouty? You seem to be singing a lot of the same songs.

Aside from prices plummeting over the last 2 months yeah. You may prefer quarterlies.. But lets not pretend we have to wait to december to see which way its going. You mean two monthy figures don't you. How many more do we need to make up a quarter. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz So no mention of the EA's commentary, for months now, that the figures are indeed skewed by high end properties. And their repeated assertion that this will drop out. What do they know right. They only compile the raw data. Do us a favour Fflump. Please update your status to Bull. That kind of tedious bet hedging isn't as clever as you think.

Its a bit crass innit. A bit boastful. You could have said "My husband earns a fair bit more than the average salary". and "our flat doubled in price in five years". Just a bit less self congratulatory, see? Look, I'm sorry for having a go, and your heart may be in the right place. But do remember that the struggle to get by on £125Kpa may not garner much sympathy from your average priced out bear.

Lordy. Overcompensate much? Thanks for sharing.

You can call it spin. I call it the statistical skew dropping out. And theres more to come. You want to be looking at the bigger picture. Quarterly data can also be afflicted by statistical spikes IMO. Particularly as the organisation responsible has said month to month to month that the skew has peen present and they expect it to collapse like a deck of cards eventually. Sorry, but this does not a strong market make.

Strong. Not sure about that. The ESPC monthly show a £12K fall over the last 2 months. Thats with the observed townhouse/mansion stat skew. And the EAs are predicting figures to fall back to where they were at the start of the year. i.e. another £25K. Not all that strong. I suppost they would know, as they have the mix data. I can only assume they want to get ahead of the inevitable. Thats one thing the crash has taught the VIs. If you want to continuously ********, you just might end up looking like a bullshitter when it all goes south.

Spamish? He's pretty busy on MSE. Almost 6000 posts since he was put on mod watch for trolling.