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Everything posted by weaker

  1. ​search engine: StartPage - and offers a 'proxy' below which you can use to go to the link if you like. StartPage offers the google results, much like scroogle used to.
  2. at 50, 100x (or more) leverage you can make several percent, not fractions. BUT at the end of the day, it is nickels and steamrollers! Cost of funding on margin has to be factored, too. I'd generally prefer to have the ounces in the safe. Buy and hold. BTW I agree with you inasmuch as leasing your gold can only be done 'fully funded'. Then, there is no 'profit'. And you might also argue that any profit from this deal involves counterparty risk and leverage and thus is not really a true arb. There are risks.
  3. ​ ​ ​ ​I don't want us to get off on cross-purposes with misinterpretation so I will make it clear that what I think I am saying here is that we saw a negative basis, which is not the same as backwardation. At almost $1 /Oz of potential profit in August'13, using a good amount of leverage can make a profit in this situation. (I know because I have done it!) So, I think I can say that what I am talking about IS arbitrage. What you are talking about is the time-value vs libor, which in a non-margin situation I agree would erode your 'profit' over the duration of the spot-sale/futures purchase, no? ​ ​ ​ ​
  4. ​ ​I merely mention it because the fact that it exists is interesting; that no-one has actually arbitraged the difference away means there is some desire over and above a small free profit to hold the gold now, and not sell it (and buy an offsetting futures/options contract). ​Dunno if that's Fekete or Austrian - just logical inferrence. ​ ​Oh, Digger go away with your nonsensical drivel. Contribute somehing useful or f**** off. ​ ​ ​ ​
  5. Getting close to backwardation / negative basis, here at 1259 handle..
  6. Sorry, guys - but Ayn Rand -- more true now than ever. ​ ​when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors- when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you- when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice- you may know that your society is doomed.
  7. Hey, everyone- why not get an RSS reader like QuiteRSS? I have it, and my feeds are customisible and the BBC is even one of the feeds! (they are usually late, and often fail to mention things I see elsewhere as important). You can customise your feeds to your specific interests or sectors. The code is open source, iirc. I have it set to refresh every 3 minutes or so. It can even cope with pulling in twitter feeds every 3m, using a script I found. (will link later) EDIT - twitter feeds for rss: http://www.labnol.org/internet/twitter-rss-feed/28149/
  8. Yeah, I know. Just saying that Russia alone (having a piddly $350Bn in reserves) could buy the lot at $1,200 per ounce -- Gold Fine Troy Ounces: 258,641,878 x 1,200 = $310,370,253,600 They'd still have $40Bn left and the Chinese would get nada.
  9. Bear in mind, China has $4Tr of foreign reserves and Russia has $350Bn. That's enough dough to buy all the physical gold in Fort Knox (assuming it's still there, of course!)... http://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/goldRpt/current_report.htm Gold Fine Troy Ounces: 258,641,878 Not like it'll be for sale however. That's why posession is 9/10ths...
  10. USD rising against EUR, JPY, GBP today. Gold rising against USD. US Commerce secretary starting to moan about 'strong dollar'. NO WAY Fed will raise rates this year, and Gold knows it. When the hedge funds & investment lemmings / public at large get it, gold will rise thru $1400. Then the bear will be slain. Ok, I've had a few to drink.
  11. ​ ​ ​ I dont think anything has been soundly riduculed. Ridiculed, yes, but not soundly! ​ The inflation is baked in, waiting to happen (don't tell me the fed will actually sell bonds in a rising Interest Rate environment!): ​ https://imgur.com/RISnlba ​http://i.imgur.com/RISnlba.png ​ ​I also think personally, that we may hit a short-term top here. If it does turn down a little (wow, what a run so far this year!), I'll be watching the next low, to see if it's a "higher low". ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ But as per the above Monetary Base and MV, it's nice knowing the fundamentals are so, so solid. ​As to the gold fall, I beleive what we we saw was so closely correlated with Obama's bankster meeting, and the *introduction* of the Swiss peg to the Euro, that the western CB's and Bullion banks have definitely had something to do with the carpet-bombing since 2011. ​
  12. ehem.. Ah, that is why gold just shot up 20 bucks! Gold PM fix: 2013-06-28 1192.00 2013-07-01 1242.75 and.... Gold AM Fix: 2014-11-07 1145.00 2014-11-10 1172.00 Call me a bottom-picker. I note the first purchase could have waited until November 2014, but nobody's perfect. Just buy the dips?
  13. Couldn't disagree more - something has changed in the last 12-24 months. Venezuela, Germany, The Netherlands, now possibly France all wanting gold repatriated. Frank Veneroso pointed out the supply vs consumption imbalance over a decade ago (was it two?), and that has got worse over the last few years. Where is all the gold coming from, and how many claims are there on what is left? Pretty obvious that is the question being asked, and answered with repatriations. Gold leasing may well involve the loss of physical gold from central bank vaults, and there has sure been a lot of leasing! in here one sees: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2013/html/fs130109.en.html Item 1: under ASSETS - "gold and gold receivables". (--gold in the vault and gold leased out??) then, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/html/wfs-userguide.en.html says: "Gold and gold receivables forms part of the foreign reserves of the Eurosystem. It consists of physical gold and non-physical gold." First, aren't you shocked that "gold receivables" are classed as an asset?! Well, gold leased out ain't coming back if it's in a Chinese vault. But the accounting procedures allow them to hide that loss, if it occurred..because the count it all in ONE line item under assets.
  14. Now you have really put the cat among the pidgeons. The almost consistent negative basis/backwardation of gold over the last 18months proves that the 'price' of gold is not dictated by it's availability for delivery; that availability is simply a secondary effect which has an uplifting or depressing effect on the 'price'. It happens because people are willing to settle for ownership of paper gold. in extremis.... http://fofoa.blogspot.de/2014_12_01_archive.html "At first dollar hyper inflation will not be reflected in a rising price of gold on the current dollar paper gold market. It will be reflected in a corresponding lack of real gold relative to outstanding contracts! A physical gold shortage will happen "first", as the contract price system slowly defaults in an ever lower price. Next the paper markets will totally fail from non availability. That means a super low (discounted) bid price for contract gold. That's the same price the stock market players currently value your gold shares with. Once the dollar gold contract system fails (and this will be happening during a full blown "hidden" price inflation), a physical gold market will develop,,,, whether officially (Euroland) or black market style. The point is that during this dollar inflation, physical gold will be in almost no supply and its price will be 10X the paper price. No body, and I mean NO BODY is going to be cashing out of gold shares or any form of paper gold and doing an even swap! Every gold mine that operates using the dollar gold market to sell into,,,, does its financing with and is hedged leveraged with dollar based Bullion Banks ,,,,,, is going to see their stock ride the paper gold market to its end." ... Also: The present paper gold market depends on new hikers entering the gold trail towards its end. They buy paper gold as some kind of stock market / investment hedge without knowing the big picture. In the past their actions would have worked their purpose. But not in this transition. A currency exchange storm is going to sink a lot of these paper boats and kill the very assets many wanted to protect. Buy the gold not the price! Thanks FOA"
  15. But then again, it's good to be wrong sometimes..
  16. Thanks, Errol ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ...ahhh. It's nice to be vindicated.... ​ ​ ​erm....just because Bloomberg says it ain't so, don't mean squat! ​ ​and.. ​
  17. Digger, I believe you are thinking one-dimensionally. The gold 'price' is ruled by the futures, and "options on futures". This is where the margin exists, and as such a small amount of money down can move the price. When a CB moves the price up, they might do it on the F&O markets, and sell spot. They then roll over this future-long position for a small cost, whilst pocketing the full proceeds of the gold sale. Over time, the futures (long) position can be wound down. This strategy would be particularly effective if, say, the futures were bought at illiquid times, and the spot sold during heavy market activity.
  18. My guess is that some market makers will have large paper profits, but their clients will not be able to pay them. Others will have large losses, and be unable to pay their clients. Alpari just entered insolvency: Russian Market @russian_market · 10 seg Há 10 segundos ALPARI HAS ENTERED INSOLVENCY #Francogeddon Excel yesterday L0gg0l: Just 12 hours after the SNB shocked the world, a first casualty: Forex broker Excel Markets forced to quit Barclays cancelling trades too: L0gg0l: Market breakdown? RT @AndreaHotter: #Barclays cancels Euro Swiss trades on back of ISDA-related issues, market sources tell MB. Unconfirmed Zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-15/2-fx-brokers-suffer-significant-losses-after-snb-surprise-breach-regulatory-capital- two FX brokers (US-based FXCM and New Zealand-based Excel Markets) announced tonight that they “can no longer meet regulatory minimum capitalization requirements," due to "significant losses" suffered by clients. For FXCM these losses mean a $225 million negative equity balance and they are actively discussing alternatives with regulators. For Excel Markets, it is over... "we will not be able to resume business...Client positions will be closed within the next hour." FXCM is in trouble... *FXCM: CLIENTS EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT LOSSES AFTER SNB MOVE *FXCM: NEGATIVE EQUITY BALANCES OWED TO FXCM ABOUT $225M *FXCM: MAY BE IN BREACH OF SOME REGULATORY CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS *FXCM DISCUSSING ALTERNATIVES TO RETURN CAPITAL TO PRIOR LEVELS
  19. uh oh............... Gregor Peter @L0gg0l : Hearing 40% of Poland mortgages are denominated in CHF. Zloty is tumbling
  20. The swiss currency just got 15% more valuable. People relying on the peg at EUR1.20 just got slaughtered (Hungarian mortgagors, hegies). The Swiss national bank just lost 15% on it's EUR holdings. All Swiss companies are being priced in a currency which is 15% more valuable than it was yesterday; hence stock market falls. Anything else?
  21. Surely just Swiss mulinationals earning capacity being revalued in terms of the rest-of-the-world currency basket; about 15% less in CHF than yesterday. I'm more worried about the SNB's balance sheet, which they have been furiously buying EUR and selling CHF to keep the peg: (and all those mortgages in CHF taken out in Hungary, and the rest of eastern europe....)
  22. Yep, the EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF markets must have temporarily gone bidless!
  23. afraid to say it but i think russia might be selling some:
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