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House Price Crash Forum

spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. The John figures are a bogus. I'd like to see some real world figures for graduates from over the last 10 years. I know the fees have been forced on the HEs but I wonder how much the HEs have thought through whats involved with charging individuals directly? When I was at Uni there were always a couple of courses every year that just missed the mark i.e bad lecturer, not equipped etc. In those days that situation was let go - not my money heyho that's life type thing. However if I was paying my own money - never mind own BORROWED money I would really kick up a fuss and push for a refund. Do the HEs know what they are letting themselves in for? Do they really believe ALL their courses and ALL lecturers and ALL their facilities are worth the money? I'm guessing the OU is probably the only HE organisation that comes close to having an active QA and review process. Not that I have any inside information, just that the OU has had 40 years of dealing with older students paying their own money.
  2. Well written. Problem is you spelt the risk out - Housing benefits provides the rental price prop.
  3. Without going into the specific properties, you can probably knock 3-4K off those figures - giving about 10K You can them take off ctax (1K), cleaning (1K - each changeover is ~70) maintenance (2k) - rented holiday lets are like rented cars, quoting PJ? ' Rented cars are the fastest cars in the world!' Take out any finance cost and you looking at a cash hole.
  4. Sorry, I forgot the link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8768615/Housing-deposits-rise-tenfold.html Assuming you believe the research or not -all things housing need a pinch of salt -then it does indicate that only the very rich are trading houses. You might be lucky and get some trickle down but chances are you are the 95% of the population who does not have 65K in cash.
  5. So the average deposit is now, roughly, what you'd expect the average house to cost ~ 3 x average salary. The housing market is just a few very rich people shuffling cash around. 90% of the rest of the housing market depends on FTB- its stuffed! Seriously, what are the chances of selling up before 1)IR go up (probably a lot) not due to inflation but credtiros being reluctant to forward money to UK housing - think Greek bonds @ 90% 2) Another bank goes down. GF friend works for 'old established' EA' - estates + lots of commercial rather than just residencial sales. They've just shutdown the satellite offices and are trying to run a region from one office. Frankly, there is so little cash they need to swing the axe again. I notice that all EAs down the main drag were shut - that's 10am on Saturday and about 12 business. Talk about being eaten by the internet.
  6. Your forgetting the extra value added to chinese software: rsync 'personal_contacts [email protected]_army.org.cn + rsync 'visa number' [email protected] I'm not kidding. Never buy an off the shelf internet connected from china. America is bad enough but ...
  7. Probably trying to make up the loses for this year. You make the mistake in assuming people operating in Whitby and the wider tourist economy are rational, sane business people. They are not. 'Oooh we can borrow 200K, buy a place in Whitby, let it out in summer to pay the mortgage and give us some money then retire to i' That's probably the most detailed business plan I've ever heard. Trust, you'd p1ss your pants on some of the crock I've heard.
  8. Well, for Nicola Horlicks things are Apocalyptic The tide went out and she was not wearing trunks.
  9. The commentary on the BBC has some telling comments: steve - 'have been renting for 14 years, I used to be a lettings manager for a major Estate Agent. These surveys are normally conducted by the industry itself and aim to hype up prices, if you ask an Estate Agent if they think prices will rise they will almost inevitably say yes. The truth is that adjusting for inflation even in the South East Rentals are 30% less than they were 15 years ago.' steve may be lying about working for an EA or not - the fact he can do percentages and adjust would make him brighter than any EA Ive ever met, but his real rental figures sound correct.
  10. Anecdotally, using my rought rental rule of thumb - rent/bedrooms - rentals are back to where they were 15 years ago - 200-250/bedroom. There is a huge amount of supply to chose from too. When I last rented, houses shifted quickly - it took about a week to fill one. Now they hang around for ages - the voids must be 2 to 3 months at the end of each 6 month occupancy, which is another thing I see - tenant churn. Some rentals near me are clocking up there 7 month of void - and counting. I'm not saying the article is lying - its possibly true that 'asking' rents are going up but relaity is 'getting' rents are down and voids are up.
  11. Don't watch QT - too many cardigan wearing public sector workers blaming it all on 'Thatcher' I definetly would not have watched it is Nicola Horlicks was on - v thick HR woman. 'Duh hello bernie madoff - have my money please doh'
  12. I've noticed that of the very few houses that sell, half are getting gutted. I presume by builders as no one is resident. I presume the reasons for this is a) they have some money from the boom they don;t have a lot of other work on. Some are getting so made over that there must be no chance of them ever making the money back. Easy come, easy go I guess. But I'm not complaining. I've got rid of loads of crap I'd have to take to the dump.
  13. David Wells does benefit farming not BTL. BTL is more more gentile.. Benefit farming is getting as many scum of the earth into a house. Bmouth is a much worse place for David Wells. Come workfare 1/3 of the population will disappear.
  14. Bmouth does seem to be getting very 'knifey'. There seems to be about one murder/month on the drags/bar roads into town.
  15. I count not live my parents. The only way it would be possible would be just use parents house as a base. Say get a v v cheap shared house near where you work. Use the shared house for 'entertaining' women. Keep expensive stuff/bulk of stuff at parents and just swap around a bit. A bit rootless but mots people could handle it when they are are young and a bit rootless. The whole 'people need to live somewhere = house prices going up' demand theory is so flakey. Housing demand is very dynamic. If a house is going to appreciate by mortgage cost + 10K a year then housing demand is huge - witness last few years. If a house FALSS by 10K a year then you'll see housing demand disappear - like now. Equally is you have to pay for your housing out of earned money then demand falls. Housing benefit must be made a function of average earnings in an area NOT average rent.
  16. seems good to me 500 50% female knock 20% ugly off and i make that 200 opportinities never liked the idea of halls at uni. i went for shared. however the oportinitie to have 200 without having to step outside is v appealing. bmouth is more language/fe college where various 'students' sign on to go and work at a takeaway 70% of bmouth is v crappy. some of it is hackney/tottenham levels it will end in tears
  17. I think these mark downs are connected to being sued by the USGOV. AFAIK YBS has already had its credit marked down. YBS are definitely on my 'one to watch' list. As mentioned previous in a previous post, they've given a 90% LTV to my brother recently, 3 year fix @ 7% Ow. He's swapped 500/mont rent for about 2500/mortgage f*ink nuts. Here's some blurb on YBS new CEO: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk:80/business/business-news/yorkshire_building_society_appoints_new_chief_executive_1_3694991 In my eyes, this bloke has a serious case of CV churn. And it looks like the companies who have employed him are not too bothered about him leaving. HIs last job was with HSBC - first direct than in charge of branches. Don' know him but this is someone who has gone from marketing to basically an operations job at HSBC. With the length of time he's worked in various places I would doubt he has any deep understanding of any of the businesses. YBS need some who's good on risk management - they have took on so much dross, and has a good grasp on wholesale funding. Maybe we can have a YBS count-down clock?
  18. [*]They have large kitehcnes with Agas, even though AGAs are largely fuel ineffieient. [ I don't get the desire for AGAs. Agas were designed 100 years ago for constant cooking. I worked at a hotel where they had one and it was good - when you susses it out. Breakfast starts at 6am, stuff gets cooked and moved to the hot plate, than snacks at 11am, to tea time ,etc. You have to be using the AGA to swallow the running cost - and it takes an eternity to heat up. Same goes for a farm , which is the only other place that Ive seen one earn its keep. Farmers wife constantly cooking stuff during harvest. But an urban house, with 2 adults + 2 kids. Forget it.
  19. Hmm its not middle class vs. working class. Its people who can afford their mortgage vs. those who cannot.
  20. Theta should have read 'Scarborough borough' i.e. from scabby up to runswick bay on the coast, and just before Pickering up to Danby inland. Wierdly, the Magpies f+x take away is not that good. The restaurant is still fantastic. We walked straight in o both our visits this summer. And it not expensive - £50 for 2 adults, 2 kids - not far off pizza express. Its hard to say what's got wrong with scabby over he last 20 odd (some would say 40) but its definitely hit warp speed - so many business that have been kicking around have gone under: Woodheads, Pindar, Scabby buillding society, malton bacon factory. I would guess that private sector employment has probably halved in the last 4 years.
  21. The average wage in Whitby is about 19K. 50% of households in Scarborough get the majority of their income from benefits. Go figure.
  22. You rarely see foriegners in Whitby. Wierdly there were a noticable number of asians around this summer. Not sure where they were from.
  23. Hmm, They had some semi-public sector harpy on Today. Could not work out if she was very stupid or very untruthful. Apparently, house are up 25% since 2006! Wierd. In a number of areas I track, nominal prices are back to 2004 levels. At the moment they are stuck there as there are so few transaction occuring. All the while the number of unsold houses - or should-have-been-sold houses pile up. There must be about 30 months stock up for sale. The woman was from some housing assocation. My take on if the house builders are not building housing - or even if they were - is to remove the forbearance they are getting from the banks - mainly nationalised - let them go bust, and let some else pick up their up developed lank bank. Load of w*nk.
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