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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. I started the other post on this yesterday. Its complex. Its nuts. I've never heard any put it in as short and clear as the above. All the people on tax credit - they do not differentiate working or child - know that you just work 16 hours in an easy job and get the money.
  2. I understand your point. Of the known private sector parents, 1 wife works partime in a shop (private sector), the other does not work, my GF works parttime at factory. Of the public sector, about 50% are 1 works/1stays at home. The other 50% both parents work in public sector.
  3. I'm not upset. I just find the whole situation totally nuts. End of the day - the UK is not s a shining economic star - the states' taking 52% of GDP in tax adn then borrowing another 10% GDP! That is totally ffing nuts. The idea behind working family tax credit is sound - you have kids etc, so you get high tax code emaing you pay less tax i.e. keep more of what you earn. No money flows from the state to the individual. The GB ffing nuts bit of the policy is letting people work a couple of days a week and then making up the difference of a 40/hr work week.
  4. Not sure its the cannot afford to live there but the absence of private sector workers i.e. it looks likes the local economy is mainly public sector or 18 hours/week cleaning an office or wiping an OAP's ar5e. It's nuts. GB almost got the majority of the voters on the state's teet. Then the money ran out ...
  5. Rant on: (Unless you have school age kids, you probably do not have full experience of how much GB has p1ssed it away) Bleating on the radio about the qualifying number or hours raising to 24/week - from 16/week if you were not sure. Family tax credit is one of the major planks in GB plan to sell your children in serfdom. It came from nothing to take vast percentage of tax. I've 2 kids at primary. I have a reasonably rough idea of what other parents do - general chit chat etc. I live in a the better end of nominally prosperous town - not London! The primary school is one the better i.e. parents lie and drive to get their kids there. Out of the 30 odd sets of parents in my sons class, I would guess 50% work in the public sector - or wholly state funded organisations. Another 30% do the the 16hr/week for the tax credit. About 10% are on out and out benefit. 10% work in the private sector - that's 3 if you cannot do the maths (15 parents public sector; 10 18hr/weeks; 3 doleys; 3 private sector). 30 years ago, when I was at primary school, the figures were along the lines of 70% private sector, 20% public,10% benefit. I'd guess 60% of the 30% have mortgages FFS! 16hr/week per couple. Thats 8hr each - thats less than I spent travelling to work in a week FFS! Oh and don't get me started on the single mum with 5 kids who's just had a boob job on the NHS so - she does not feel depressed (what she said to her GP); pull a squaddy (what she told my GF). Yes that is the truth. No I don't write for the Daily Mail.
  6. And remember that Economics - political economy to give it its full name - is an humanities degree pretending to be a science degree by having some sums in it - but not used very well. PPE is for thicky posh blokes as History of art is for thicky posh girls.
  7. On a similar subject, do the number of For Sales tally with the number of houses on Rightmove? Some towns appear to have many times the normal hosue for sale number. However the number of 'For Sales' do not tally. I think there's a conspiracy going on. Or maybe its just not wirth shoving a sign up these. 95% of buyers probably use the interweb.
  8. I'm not sure. There maybe a way round i.e. one system has this. Another system has that. Someone in the middle puts them together. Something has definitely change re: dole fraud - covering all the social payouts. I'm seeing loads in the paper. Never used to see any. That means: 1) They are reporting it now. Unlikely as the crime pages are an easy way for a local paper to pad out space. 2) There is more of it about. Possible. The benefit system is sooo complex nobody knows if they are fiddling - at the edges at least - or not. 3) Those hard working, highly skilled public sector workers have suddenly pulled their finger out. Sorry my sides have split. 4) There is a new system that is consolidating a lot info - claimants, PAYE info, private loans etc. Seems likely.
  9. I cannot comment about hte Midlands. I can comment about the Scarborough. The For Sales are piling up. Rightmove makes the size of the market easy to see. I'd guess there must 30% of private housing up for sale. Property Bee, Land reg prices and a quick google (for home business) remove the remaining veils. There's one house which a quick google shows is owned by a builder - well roofer. He wants 400K for it. Why bother making a bid. Wait for the repo.
  10. I remember hearing a quote from some dancey type band member from the mids 90s - before the interweb andall - he said 'The music business not only does not understand music, it does not understand business either. I remember some recent articles by Louis Werner from Feeder (?). She'd up on music and was trying to carve out a carerr in journalism - talk about frying pan to fire. Anyhow she said all there advance was p1ssed away by thick middle calss blokes who work in the record business. John Lydon was right. Never trust a hippy. I wish I remember that a few years ago when I paid for a virgin mobile. A few weeks later I started to get scam transactions - I only use my card occasionally on Amazon; never use it in London when eating out. Anyhow, 1 year later, I had to do the same thing (yes, I know) guess? Loads more fake transaction. I'll never use Virgin again - eps. their cheap Indian outsourcing ordering backend.
  11. What! You want them to walk to the phone and ring for a take-away! You Telegraph Nazi!!!
  12. Scarborough has some stunning houses. I would not pick FIley road though. Crap traffic. It also has some of the most stunningly feral stnuc who have relocated from various Northern cities - note I'm not saying Wessies; the sum are from everywhere. Half the town is on government assisted methadone programmes. Heartbreaking really, esp. when you remember how nice scarborough was - and Im only talking the late 70s/early 80s. Basicaily, the town needs to get the Uks toughest workfare scheme in place. It'll either have the cleanest streets in the UK, or lose half its' population.
  13. Yes. You'd have to telework - or at least keep your travel to the minimum - the A64 is not good.
  14. That's a 95% LTV for you BTLer's. Ormy brother, who got a 95% mortgage (i know i know) for a place in N yorks. The 4% figure for the county does not reflect what's happening in Scarborough - half the town trying to leave - or the number of transaction - one or two a week in the town. Looks like my prediction was correct - 5 to 10 years of 5% to 20% yearly reductions. The 20% is there for when IRs go up and QE snaps back.
  15. And falls in capital. The basic maths is rent compared to IR and maintenance costs. For a 3 bedded, I use a maintenance cost of about £100/month. Then you can add - or subtract - how much the house will fall in value. Transaction/ moving costs can be quite chunky - about 5K/6K which is getting on for a years rent. Basically, you have to buy to stay these days. There was never such a thing as the housing ladder. You will not trade up - christ in the places I monitor anyone who bought after 2003ish is stuck.
  16. I think when it started (1930s) VF used to be fashion - or at least what Hollywood stars are wearing. It was revised/re-started to be a high end investigative mag - dirty doings of the rich and famous, which includes a lot of the hedge people and the likes of Madoff. Of course, each time I renew my paper subs I get some girly free gift - I've had perfume before FFS! Best compromise is getting a flowery covered Moleskine-ish notebook. My GF buys Marie Claire. Not as good as it used to be. Used to be loads of piccies of models in undies or not in undies. Now there are all covered up. I blame Germane Greer.
  17. I was just reading the article about Jim Corzine in Vanity Fair - sorry quote does not appear on VF.com article. A quick google brings up another article with the same quote: 'A Fallen Star' http://www.examiner.ie/features/a-fallen-star-176278.html "That’s true of all this baby-boom generation," Corzine recalled. "They learned to borrow early and big." Leverage - greta when it goes your way. Unfortunately, now the boomer's bulge is working its way out of the population they'll have to learn to sell quick and low. The guy's nuts - and was very lucky. He'd almost blown up Goldman Sachs a couple of times during his career. Looks like MF global wern't so lucky. Weird isn't it? The most detailed and accurate articles of the whole 2000s finance and its ultimate blowup have either been in Vanity Fair (various), or Rolling Stone - Matt Taibbi. The mainstream financial press - bar Buttonwood in the Economist - has, in the main, just been printing PR for the investment banks.
  18. Too right. Spaniard - or at least the Catalans (family link by marriage) - make Kirsty And Phil look like some of the posters on here. A big part of the reason is that modern Spain - choose your starting point: death of Franco (74); EU entry (86) has never had a recession. Before that finance -debt and mortgages did not exist. Spain was pretty much a 3rd world until the 80s. Spain spent the 90s being the EUs China. But christ did they start borrowing in the late 90s/00s despite earning f-all money. So welcome to your first modern recession!
  19. No moral objections. Just think is a bad investment. Round me, rentals are seeing multi-month voids; the market is flooded. Going ahead, ukGov pays for about 50% of private rentals. Every year, for the next 10 years, the amount UKGOV will pay is being reduced. Do the sums. There's a house a few (3) from me. Bought as BTL about 5 or 6 years ago. Woman LL spoke to neighbour - investment, yadah, professionals only. 1st tenant - girl + boy, worked in local office. Lasted 10 months. COuld not afford rent. Multimonth void. Another tenant - lasted 3 months more voids. Its now let to some young kids (less than 25) who are sharing. Not sure about the rent - they don;t appear to work. They have all their friends round - i don;t here the noise - but christ does it stink of skunk some days. I have a feeling she's not going to be getting her rent from them.
  20. The answer is simple -the spends are public sector, the saves are private sector. Any idea that concils provide a good, cheap service will be easily quashed by spending a week working with the council. They usually make Remploy look like Goldman Sachs.
  21. I would gladly swapped 12 weeks of fixed holiday for 5 weeks of anytime holiday.
  22. It's accountants/dumb short term thinking. They've cranked down the stock held in stores that all it takes for a few to be sold and the store is out of stock. I went to Blacks a few months ago. I tried buy a pair of size 11 trainer/boot things. Bloke goes and looks - No luck. Then he went into a very long rant about not being able to hold mor than 2 sizes of each shoe and 'what's the point of a shop that does not have things?' ON paper the system looks good - low stock levels/low capital tied up. Till feeds into database, database schedules vans to update stock during the week - say tues + thurs. The reality is I go in on Saturday. Try shoe on, get feet measured. decided to buy. No stock. Get told they might - might mind, not will - have pair in by next Sat. I go home, order on interweb, shoe delivered on Tues. I think the cost was about the same as the shop once postage was added in. Shop goesbust (its Blacks). Accountant is easily automated so gets job stacking shelves.
  23. Read the article (online - not giving money to those tw*ts). Pondered on it during the day. I think EdB is just positioning. Lining up to step in EdM's warm seat. EdM did his state of the moron speech last week. Apparently everything can be fixed by not inflation linking the winter fuel payment for OAPs. I found EdM pitch beyond weird - and beyond any sense of anything really. What sort of Socialist Worker numbnuts is he FFS? He's almost 40 now, not some half-witted 17 year old. Anyhow, rather than setting the UK body politic on fire, EdM re-positioning went down like a damp squib. EdB - I don;t know personally. Weirdly I do know some people from Morley - old Labour, miner type. Now life gets strange and we go into degrees of separation from Kevin WhatHisName - except in this case is like degrees of separation from Hitler (at least he had a popular mandate) Anyhow, I digress. They think he's an odious little ****, dropped on them for a Labour safe seat - think Mandleson/Hartlepool/guacamole. Speaking as a Northern, Working class kid, Labour have just become the party of public sector worker - that's a massive problem for them. They don't speak for me - working in the private sector, having to take their crap services - like it or lump it - for quite a hefty price.
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