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spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Groan. Another person confusing life expentancy statistics with a crystal ball. I don't know how long you'll live. I don't know how long I'll live. The stats give me a good guess that 80%+ of todays 50 year olds will live to 85. Of course we could get hit by a astroid and go all dinosaur. I know a woman who's pension plan is drink and eat so she'll die early. That is her considered plan. I've pointed out that it'll just make her poor and unemployable. She'll still live to 80 odd - probably. If dying early is your life plan that I can point you to Beachy Head. Not that has a 100% chance of death - as you are so keen on sure things.
  2. And still they don't sell. We've had 5 years of the very low transaction. There's probably 2.5 years of supply kicking around in the channel. To that you need to include the large number of ill-advised BTLs. The few remaining solvent mortgage providers - remember 80% of the banks that provided mortgages in 2007 are in some form of bust - have very finite capital. At the bets of time, housing liquidity is poor. For the for-seeable future - 10 years - its going to look even worst. Even if BoE rates don't go up - and they will - the mortgage costs are going to rise. There are a lot of people chasing very little money - rules of supply and demand. I should add I'm seeing price compression in a number of areas - nice big houses in better areas on at the same smaller houses in worse areas. This is a sign of a liquidity pile-up. It will be a race to get houses old - cut or stay on the market for years.
  3. Interesting news on Richer and the wider retail market. I think Julian Richer lives in York now, I remember reading an article in the local paper about his wife opening a boutique little tat shop in Scarborough. Part of the article - and other stuff I'e read - said Julian Richer has gone massive on commercial real estate. Think RBS//HBOS lending to all those scottish 'billionaires'. I think he focussed on secondary + tertiary sites. Oof!
  4. Jessops is not still in business. The original Jessops - floated 2000ish - is no more. The equity was wiped out in a debt for equity swap. The shops remaining are zombies owned by the creditors.
  5. You'll talk us into a recession. I thought she'd diversified into handmade cluthe crap. Taking inspiration from her, I went a bought loads of handmade clothes - from Primark, handmade by 8 tear olds in Sri Lanka ... She has shacked (not married) a properdee developer. Im looking forward to the eventual results on that.
  6. And Ryanair. When I was at uni (86-90) abroad was expensive. Now getting the the train between UK towns is expensive. Flting is cheap. Of course, posh kids parents can't drive their volvos to ahlls anymore ...
  7. As far as BTL being a good match for pension liabilties - jeez pass the crask pipe. The yields are way too low - either you are paying to high prices or charging to little rent. Its the former. How on earth are you going to run a BTL portfolio in your dotage? Do you know how much leg work and hassle is involved? Most OAPs struggle with the gardeing. Can youreally see them dealing with about 5 BTL - probably the number you need to replace traditional pension fund. Anyhow th rental markey outside of London appers to be flooded. And they have not started the LHA reductions and kicking people off benefits yet.
  8. I'd guess 70 by 2020. You live longer; you work longer. Althoguht I get told Im an eeore, I think the UK will have had some form of default by then. Mainly down to public sector pay as you go pensions. Otherwise known as the government magic money tree which will have Dutch Elm disease in 5 years time.
  9. I posted a reply to this article before this thread. I get eaten by the interweb. The main point of my post was simple, and I've said it before on here, The headline can be re-written - 'Millions will never sell!' A market consists of buyers and sellers. Too many sellers and prices fall; too many buyers and prices go up. UK housing is a bit comatised at the moment - banks not repo-ing, BoE not raising IRs (necessarily). Broadly the UK is stuck at 2004. Places in the Norht are rapidly going back to 1999. The number of transacton the in the UK are about 1/3 of what they need to be to maintain stable prices - 20K vs 100K. Abother year, another increase in unsold or woulda-sold stock. People assume the 30K ceiling on bueys is just temporary. I don't beleive it is. Our banks as bust. Do you how much money costs them on the market? Then they have to add their operation costs - which wil be coming down massively - see Llyods redun plans - but will result in about 60K of property coming onto the market. Demograpshic have shifted massively. There are about 30% more people in their 50s-65 then there are in 25-40s. It would help if these soon to be retired boomers had not have hammered the equity. But they did .... Give it a years and you'll see more + more 'Can't sell it. Won't give it away' articles.
  10. Lloyds chief to step back from helm http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3428f9ee-04ec-11e1-91d9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cWohM49Q Ha! Smells of B+B when the CEO was retired off because he was a vagina .. sorry had angina. Stress? As in 'God I hope they don't find out that Santander is just a sham.'
  11. I'm not from NI, planning to to NI, etc. Saw this post on the forum home page. In these situations there is no point trying to reason or perform a verbal brain slap. Most EAs have a small number of responses to all the obvious questions, all of which they will repeatedly parrot. You have to shift the argument. Trick them into giving a specific house to justify his/her 'best time to buy'. Then say - 'OK, I'll lend you the money to buy it. You can put up your current assets as security. Interest at 8%. Will you buy it? Then forcibly repeat the offer. The only valid answer he/she can provide is give is 'Yes'. If he/she quavers or dodders then start a stream of ridicule.
  12. Not cutting public sector spending. Hmm, the state takes just over 52% of GDP at the mo. It runs a deficit of a further 11% A very expensive way to maintain demand. Bond markets have a limited capacity. There's too much that needs to be looked in the euro zone. In a few months, someone will re-spin the UK numbers - FFS despite the talk and protests, the UK is still spending more than it was last year! We are on a monstrous oil tanker, still going in the direction that cret!n Brown pointed it at. Relistically, public sector spending will have to halve. I'm guissing the UK will some form of default within the next 5 to 10 years.
  13. Not sure if this is s start or just a bone to throw to the masses. What I do find nuts is why B+B and holiday homes do not pay rates - a much higher tax than c tax. Why should a hotel be liable for rates whilst a cottage rented out not? Its a business; it should pay business rates.
  14. Not to me. Try feeding in only 8 months rent per year. Voids appear to be the killer at the moment.
  15. Don't know about Oldham - wrong side of the pennines for me. But Middlesbrough, and its smaller, uglier, more dodgy sibling, h-pool is looking very battered. I don;t the price falls tell even half the story. A quick spin with PropertyBee on Rightmove shows a massive number of places up for sale. Pointing Property Bee at places more of interest to me - North Yorkshire, shows some insane numbers - 30% of Scarborough seems to be for sale. Even York - 'oh prices only ever go up' is looking very dodgy. This is a city that has lost probably 50% of its low to middle income jobs in the last 15 years. Only the vast increase in the public have propped it up. The public sector is now contracting at a rapid clip. Outside of prime london - and I mean prime, less than 0.0001% of London Property, inventory is rising and rising. Finger in the air - inventory is rising 10x the rate of sales. Sorry, this will be a bloodbath.
  16. The ownership may be shared. I'll think you'll find the debt is yours.
  17. Never trusted Santander, even before they started arriving in the UK. Listening to their claims is like listening to Enron or Worldcom in the late 90s. I've spanish relatives who've spoken of Santander's business model - large carpet, large broom, aim for too big to fail. Speaking to people who have worked for various Santander acquisitions in the UK, they seem even worse. Think large number of plates spinning as some f-witted Spanish MBA failure runs round shouting. Santander seeks to offload €3bn of property http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/240f7f4e-ffe5-11e0-89ce-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1c3BvIdhs “The Santander operation will be difficult to pull off,” said one broker in Madrid. “Santander will accept losses, but the problem is that anyone who studies the operation will be so aggressive that there will be some assets valued at zero, or less.” Santander faces £13bn capital shortfall http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8853812/Santander-faces-13bn-capital-shortfall.html
  18. So, the UK has been stumbling for 4 years now. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/24/710106/stagnation-beckons-for-the-uk/ I still think were are going to see the loss of all HP since 2001ish. The north will be back to mid 90s values - basically reversing the 00s boom AND the 80s mini boom. Still Im sure we all had a good time buying cr*p at the shopping centres and stuff.
  19. I call EA BS. Wealthy greeks have always had property/assets in Greece. You don't get to be wealthy Greek by having your assets in Greece. AS far as other Greeks. Doubt it. Most of them store the wealth in property - an ideal holder of black money. Unfortunately the chances of liquidating a house that described to the tax people as a tin shack with bucket toilet but in fact is a 6 bedroom villa with swimming pool is .... 0.
  20. Claudio Borio from BIS (Bank for International Settlements) has a new working paper. Its causing a stir - well, as much as a stir as these sort of things cause. Gillian Tett @ FT (subs might be req) has a piece around it: (ooh she's just like Patsy Kensitt's older, smarter, not rock star sh*gging, sister) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/877b7bfa-fb21-11e0-bebe-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bUjEgmFp Buttonwoon @ Economist refers to Tett's aritcle + the original paper: http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/10/debt-crisis-1 And here's a direct link to the paper: http://www.bis.org/publ/work353.pdf Both articles and the original paper are well worth a read. Here are some choice snippets from the paper: "Put differently, when dealing with major financial busts monetary policy addresses the symptoms rather than the underlying causes of the slow recovery. It alleviates the pain, but masks the illness. It gains time, but makes it easier for policymakers to waste it." "If governments allow public debt to grow beyond sustainable levels, pressures to compromise the central bank’s independence will grow at some point in order to avoid default. If central banks engage in extensive balance-sheet policy, that independence will come under threat even earlier" And this one, which is a total slap in the face to Merv's imported inflation, not my problem claim: "It is quite common for countries to treat commodity price increases as “imported”, and hence exogenous, sometimes even formally excluding them from the price index used as a guide for monetary policy (eg a measure of “core inflation”). This is reasonable from a partial equilibrium perspective. But the commodity price increase itself may also be the result of the aggregate monetary policy stance for the world, in which all countries participate. And being determined in auction markets, commodity prices are more flexible than prices of goods and services. They are thus more likely to be the first to adjust, acting as a signal of aggregate demand pressures, and hence of limited economic slack, for the world economy – a possible harbinger of further inflationary pressures down the road."
  21. Bit in the Yorkshire Posy about this. http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/at-a-glance/main-section/sarah_beeny_s_tv_restoration_hits_a_pile_of_trouble_1_3875498 Big, listed houses will bleed you to death. I remember reading an article about Rob Hull years ago. During his peak earning years - late 70s I think - he bought a stately home in the late 80s. Property crashed. His TV crashed. He got divorced. Then a tax bill. Ended up only being able to afford a crap cottage with a badly fitted tv aerial.
  22. I occasionally have a read of the mumsnet housing forum. The last year or so, a lot of the posts have been along the lines of 'my house has been on the market xx months Im going mad' Recently, I've noticed quite a few 'I have x kids under 7. We are looking at leaving London. What is the commute like from xx to London?' Of course DH is doing the commute. And they have not checked out the price of season tickets - v high and due to go up by at ;east 50% over the next few years. Or the 4 hours of travelling. Still Im sure they can trade their ex LA Hackney flat for a nice 4 bedder with paddock and good schools. Oh and a village simpleton to tend the organic veg patch.
  23. Scarborough wierd. Its been going down the pan all my life - 40 years. Sometimes slowly, sometimes quickly. It's one thing that sort of makes me sad. I remember the old department store. Now its got a 99p shop - just. There are some stunningly nice areas in Scarborough still. Scalby Mill Road - if you ignore the sewage smell and Don Robinson. Ramshill/Olivers Mount. Scalby Road - from the Newby end down to the top of Falsgrave, and the area between the Hospital and the sixth form. The rest of the town - and Eastfields - is like some experiment in Scum rule. I'm not going to go down the whole blame the Wessie route - I know of enough native scaborian mutant bottom enders to know its not just wessie junkies - although they don't help. Scarborough is a place in need of an extreme social shock - workfare after 2 years on the dole. No job then pick up dogsh*t. The should hire the Espaniola, fill it up with scum. sail down the brid and dump the rat scum in brid bay.
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