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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Unless you're in prime-prime London then thats pretty much the story everywhere - esp. in the North. No one's mentioned the outstanding number in this thread - lots of trolling,, lot of get-a-life-get-a-mortgage. The number of housing transaction has been at historical lows for about 5 years. The nationwide figures do not represent the national experience. The figures are biased by London property money laundering. Go outside London and the transaction are way below the probate. Its all zombies out there!
  2. Jolted from my slumber by this article: Council wins Leeds Arena damages case http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-21350136 There are other articles kicking around. http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=240375&page=12 She tried to sue Leeds council for making her spend 70m on a development, racking up a few million in legal costs. Had a quick google for Kevin Linfoot. Missed the whole IVA kerfuffle: http://m.yorkpress.co.uk/news/9867347.Setback_for_York_property_tycoon/ http://www.bridgingandcommercial.co.uk/newsstory?id=2548&type=newsfeature&title=the_7_5m_hole_in_millionaire_s_property_empire There does appear to be some comments about whether he's hid any assets. Anyone know what happened to David Hattersley?
  3. The mine head is to be built near Sneaton. Its not going to visible or impact many people. The piple line will just go up the Guisboro road and turn off to Tees port. The chances of Sirus developing this mine is virtually nil. I assume they want to tidy up the rights and then sell it on to another company - assuming they don;t run out of money first. There's a lot of potash available in other countries much nearer China.
  4. I'm local. I have no object to the new mine. The old one at Boulby is OK. There was afuss a few years ago when there was talk of dumping nuclear waste in the old shafts. The new one relies on Potash prices staying very high. Sirius is a commodities boom play. Boulby has been on the verge on closure numerous times because the energy required to process the Potash is very high. Sirius does look like an attempt to extract money from investors rather than potash from the ground. The 1000 jobs is total BS. Mines are high capiatal/low labour companies. This one more so - its going to pipe potash slush to Teesport and ship it to the middle east for processing. Boubly does have a weak spot: There's about 8 feet between the rail and the UK's highest cliffs.
  5. Hats of the LibDems for rasiing the personal allowance. Now that's tax reform. I think UC has been hijacked as a means to roll back the 16 hours family tax credit. At least in its first few years. I would not cross my figures on it giving a good system. The benefit system is mainly about giving bossy, thick middleclass women a job - bossing unemployed working class people about. Try explaining it to anyone and they do no believe it. Even some people at my kids school who could claim don't believe it. All these claims about low-productivity,labour hoarding, low unemployment etc can be mainly explained by the WFTC, CTX, 16 hours system. Any family with 2 kids can have a good, middle-income for putting in a couple of shifts on the tills at Tesco. FFS, you could do one shift each, live in council funded rented and pull in 25K - this is where the 40K/year benefit figures come from.
  6. The comments after the on-line article are wroth a read, too. Spot the Santander employees.
  7. New post rather than shoving it at the end of the Santander thread. Nothing new to this site. Nice to have a bit of eyebrow raising in the MSM, although a lot of commentators on the FTAV site have having a pop at Santander for a few years. Worth using your free article quota or buying from shops for Sunday dinner read. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/57d8d5be-65bf-11e2-a3db-00144feab49a.html#axzz2J4a4ln75 I wet my knickers reading this sentence: 'In contrast to many rivals who have tripped up through the financial crisis, he has excelled at the two basic disciplines of banking – risk management and cost control – often delivered through top-notch IT.' Anyone who have experienced Abbey National's loan criteria, or been at the wrong end of Santander's customer service will have a different opinion.
  8. I'm outside of London. In Lodnon, retns are propper up be housing benefit.
  9. I keep saying this. The rent by itself is useless. Its the voids that matter Rents - on my rouhg like-to-like merteric are back at the nominal 2000ish price. Voiuds appears to running at 2-3 months after a 6 month tenancy.
  10. Most BTL is by people who've never rented a place themselves never mind been a LL. My own observation, for what its worth, from my time house sharing and renting during my work life - 23 years. Non-London; north + south. 1) Private rentals split into working and DSS. It takes a 'special' person to do DSS rents - either a saint (peanut rent for little old lady) or a sinner - (kneecapping for scum). 2) In real terms, rents don;t shift that much. Not suprising, as they are linked to wages. 3) I did see rents go up noticable in the early 2000s. Never seen that before. Not anymore. My rough and ready calculator - rental/bedroom shows that nominal rents are less than they were in the late 90s. 4) The market is saturated. There are so many rentals - I'd guess there are more than 6 times the number there were 15 years ago. Voids are very noitvable. Prevously, rentals used to shift in a couple of weeks. i.e. people out on Saturday, new people in on Sunday. Now I see hosues empty for multiple motnhs - 3 or 4 - before getting a tenant. I'm also seeing places not last the full 6 months rental. 5) Apart from corporate rentals, nobody maintains a rented house. This is nuts. Houses are falling to pieces; the LL capital is getting trashed and he moron LL sits there on their ar5e. Ex-rented property has a very high discount to applied to it. Normally they need gutting. Over the mediuam to long term, rentals need about 200/month spent on them. FInal comment - if you know somewhere cheap is going to have a massive new company and need to employ a few 1000s highskilled, high waged people then go for it. Fill your boots. Otherwise, don't bother.
  11. Wierd, as I was only thinking the other day that 2013 = 1988 (boom) + 25. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20858236 Woman buys first + only house. Told to expect a surplus of 10K. Waiting to see how much she owes. Totally unsatisfactory article. I would like to know: her deposit, how much the mortgage was and what the expected shortfall is. There's some real shockers out there for endowments esp. from the low cost products provided by Friends Provident and Abbey Life - who, incidently, were some of the most aggressive sellers. Some have managed to to miss the sum borrowed by 90%. Wierd isn;t it. The 80s housing boom was built on a capital repayment plan that just didn't pay out. Glad we've learned our lesson and are just doing IO mortgages now. Nothing can go wrong with those.
  12. Base rates don't control the bank's cost of capital. The BoE has never moved the base rate below the bank's cost of capital before - giving the illusion that the BoE base rates = cost of borrowing. In reality, you are not going to fund many mortgages borrowing in the BoE overnight money markets. Also, the BoE new rules will not let a bank use the overnight markets for funding mortgages - you can't get more short-term than over-night. Same goes QE. Its OK if there is a short-term blip in the markets and QE provides liquidiity. But 4 years FFS! It'll explode in the BoE face. Remember the BoE is not wholly in control of the bond i.e. it cannot cancel them without causing a credit event.
  13. Was thinking about this. Pure hopeless optimism. Puts me in mind of the following: I was at at mates recently. Newly single, again. Sorting out his computer so he can re-visit his plenty of fish account. I was having a quick play using his search parameters - 35-50, local town. There are a lot of single women out there, 45+ listed as 'No children. Would like children' To be honest the two are probably connected - hoping there bedsit will go up so they can to Turkey and get knocked up. On a side note, this site now brings up the 'Mature Dating UK' ad. Trust me - none of the women look like the trailer ads. Looks like he'll be off to Thailand . .. or Russia . . or whatever-istan. Ace - free Thai food. Double ace - don't have to catch an STD to get it.
  14. Lets look at the 'research'. It's from the Halifax so it must be OK. After all its not like they're bust or owt. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2255269/House-price-confidence-year-soars-38-predict-rises.html 'Nearly four in 10 (38 per cent) of people quizzed by Halifax predicted that house prices will rise in 2013, while less than a fifth (18 per cent) believe prices will decline.' Hardly great figures are they? F-tards.
  15. Heard the 6.15 billetin. It was wierd. It started with 'a survey reveals most people expects house prices to rise in 2013'. Follows with comments from Norther Ireland - down 55+% since 2007 and people cannot afford any IR rise!!!. Scotland - down 11%, asking prices not being met. The Scotland correspondent then goes on and says the number of transaction are half those of 2007. No further comment on this, which is a pretty significant number. In my reckoning there's probably about 2 years supply waiting to come on the market. Combine that with people who cannot afford even a small rise in mortgage IRs - note not BoE base rates. One of my local area has seen the number of sales be below the probate rate for about 5 years now.
  16. I don't think so. The situation and incomes tally with people I know on Tax Credits.
  17. A (rambling) post on Whitby housing, with a bias to holiday rentals - only because holiday cottages are still making up the majority of transactions. Another year, another washout. UK holidays are typically a 2nd holiday. 2nd holidays go out of the window when money's tight esp. when you've had a sh1t summer like 2012 (and 2011, and 2010, and 2009, etc). One of the funniest conversations I had this year was with a (local) holiday home owner raving about what good value the new all-inc deals to the Costa's that are coming out - 1,200 for 2 weeks (or 10 days) family of four, flights, hotel, booze and food - 2 hour drive to Manchester airport, 90 min flight. Guaranteed sun. Her rental for the two weeks would cost about £800 for the two weeks. Guaranteed rain. £3/pint, £60 for a cheap meal out for 4. There was a lightbulb moment when she calculated that the doing the equivalent - make your own breakfast, sandwiches for dinner, out for your tea every other night, 3 bottles of booze and, say, 10 pints a day would be costing well over 2K. She loved the the free food buffet - 'I didn't lift a finger during the holiday'. I pointed out that if they went self catering then she'd be doing the cooking - this is the North, we don't have Nigel Slaters. What's changed? Well the holiday rentals business companies are going nuts, nuts on p1ssing away any money that the cottage owner might make. Holiday rental firms have always been a low cost, owner/operator lady in a spare room with a telephone operation - think Ingrid Flute (as was). Now two of them have opened up shops/offices -wierdly there's a couple on Skinner Street. Both needing to pay rent + rates, both needing staff, both will be unused from October to April. The east side harbour has now almost been depleted of locals. Not only were 4 of the 5 houses that slipped down the bank recently holiday lets, the 5 hosues their gardens slid into were holiday lets too! Some of those houses are pretty basic and damp - think hovel. A splash of paint will not make them attractive. Neither will calling them 'Captain's Cottage.' The increase in holiday rentals is starting to have a affect on the local population - the younger generation is being priced out and moving. The noise of holiday rentals are driving away other locals. The area school rolls are down. Whitby has always had a lot of visitor bedrooms. Previously, this has been mainly B+B/hotels on the West Cliff. The last 15 years have seen a huge number of smaller cottages being bought by 'investors', increasing supply massively. Demand is falling rapidly. Years ago - the 70s - before Spain the typical working class Northern family had 2 weeks B+B in a northern resort. By the late 70s most were flying off to Spain. In the 80s the B+B started to fill up with DHSS. In the 90s middle class families started having 2nd (and 3rd) holidays in self-catering cottages. The 10's will see the B+B's cleared of the dossers - universal credit and workfare will force them to move somewhere with jobs. The 2nd + 3rd holidays will die a death. After being expensive, Spain is getting cheaper and more desperate. Places like Whitby will be stuck with a lot of empty B+Bs, and cottages with a much reduced population.
  18. I'd sussed out defined benefits pensions in the early 90s - no way they'd pay out. I looked at pension deficits as part of checking out which companies to work for - I'm not wroking my b.lls off to pay for someones pension. Public sectors are a much bigger pyramid scheme - both by the number of people involved and the shortfalls. Before 2007/Gordy, I was expecting a default in my working lifetime i.e. by about 2030-ish. Post 2007/Gordy, I'm expecting a default within the next 10 years, probably 5. The demographsics and debt are that bad. By default I mean somewhere between the Greece thing or basicaily the state mandating public sector retirement at 75. LA, police and fire services are nothing more than pension schemes with some cr.p service attached.
  19. Doh! Just clicked on name thing. You are literally durham born - as opposed to county durham born. In which case my you are pretty much exactly the sames miles north then.
  20. Oh, durhamborn. Thanks for the thread on universal credit. One of the more interesting (and active) threads on the forum for a long time. I'm guessing your going to be as many miles north of 'boro (or 'brough) as I am south - villga south of whitby.
  21. No Gordon waswell aware of how growth had been falling. Rather than pursue a stargey of trying to keep government spend at 40% of GDP, he embarked on the most stupidest fsical expansion that post-war UK has ever seen. All because he belived he had elimanted boom and bust, and , with help from his mates inthe Scottish banking system , be able to grow the economy at 5% rates. Of course he did not wait for the growth to improve. He took it as given and started spending. No politician post 70s is going to come out looking good. Gordon will look the stupidest, vainglorious moron going.
  22. Growth problem http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/12/euro-zone-crisis A great post from a great columnist. Buttonwood's very good at getting past all the BS, personalities, politicing and just lay out the bare numbers. Here's the UK's: 60s: 33 - 3.3 year 70s: 28 - 2.8 year 80s: 33 - 3.3 year 90s: 29 - 2.9 year 00s: 19 - 1.9 year Bare in mind the 1.9 growth achieved durign the 00s involved throwing your future, your kids future , and your grandkids future into the growth engine. Also consider that the UK gov has made promises in real numbers; the pension liabilities require real GDP growth of about 4 %+ a year. In real terms I believe the UK is back to about 2002ish i.e. achieved 0% real growth for the last 10 years. Great last comment: 'A company can borrow to invest and a society can too. But there is not much evidence that the debt has been used to finance productive investment; it seems to have gone on speculation and consumption. We have "borrowed from the future" and are suffering accordingly.' The more the numbers come out, the more you realise Gordon Brown was an odious, incompetent *****.
  23. I think LSL figures are both rigged - based on asking rents - and unduly influenced by London figure's, which were bent by the Olympics. Anecdotally, using my rough and ready calculator, rent/bedrooms, nominal rents in a number of places (all outside of London and SE) have not shifted much (less than 10%) since 2000. There was a time - about 2004-ish - where rents really did seem to be going up a lot. However, the massive increase in supply - which are the only words I can use to describe the number of new places up for rent - AND the recession/crappy job market have combined to keep the rents well down. Away from social housing, the private rental is mainly young people moving to new areas to work - think house shareses under 30. There's the odd high end company rental, the odd social tenant although you'd have to be a brave landlord to get involved with that. The best private rentals tend to be 3 or 4 bed houses in town centres. The demand for these have been bashed by most councils doing resident parking, max 2 permits. (rightly so i my book). I've seen big posh houses - 5+ bedrooms , out in the sticks up for about 300/bedroom and still remain un-let for many months. Anyone who's thinking along the lines of 'I can't sell for what I want. I'll rent it out' will be getting their ar5e served to them on a plate.
  24. That' made my morning. Thanks. I remember the helicopter. Always put me in mind of Hawaii 5 O. House were terrible. I remember an estate being bult when I was at secondary school. Even as an 11 year old i thought they were sh1t - like Lada houses.
  25. No suhc thing as bond market vigilantes. Bond prices are like a big, long bit of elastic. It stretches and stretches and then suddenly contracts back and hits you in the face. This time it'll probably take the Western worlds heads off. The UK nightmare scenerio has to be something along the lines of EU/worldwide financial set the standard for the capital that UK banks shoudl retain. UK banks have been forced to shove Gilts into their capital base. Then Gilts go below the standard, UK banks have to sell and recaptilise. For the US its probably going to be CHina insisting on proving loans either in Yuan or some world-wide currency mix.
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