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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. What! You want them to walk to the phone and ring for a take-away! You Telegraph Nazi!!!
  2. Scarborough has some stunning houses. I would not pick FIley road though. Crap traffic. It also has some of the most stunningly feral stnuc who have relocated from various Northern cities - note I'm not saying Wessies; the sum are from everywhere. Half the town is on government assisted methadone programmes. Heartbreaking really, esp. when you remember how nice scarborough was - and Im only talking the late 70s/early 80s. Basicaily, the town needs to get the Uks toughest workfare scheme in place. It'll either have the cleanest streets in the UK, or lose half its' population.
  3. Yes. You'd have to telework - or at least keep your travel to the minimum - the A64 is not good.
  4. That's a 95% LTV for you BTLer's. Ormy brother, who got a 95% mortgage (i know i know) for a place in N yorks. The 4% figure for the county does not reflect what's happening in Scarborough - half the town trying to leave - or the number of transaction - one or two a week in the town. Looks like my prediction was correct - 5 to 10 years of 5% to 20% yearly reductions. The 20% is there for when IRs go up and QE snaps back.
  5. And falls in capital. The basic maths is rent compared to IR and maintenance costs. For a 3 bedded, I use a maintenance cost of about £100/month. Then you can add - or subtract - how much the house will fall in value. Transaction/ moving costs can be quite chunky - about 5K/6K which is getting on for a years rent. Basically, you have to buy to stay these days. There was never such a thing as the housing ladder. You will not trade up - christ in the places I monitor anyone who bought after 2003ish is stuck.
  6. I think when it started (1930s) VF used to be fashion - or at least what Hollywood stars are wearing. It was revised/re-started to be a high end investigative mag - dirty doings of the rich and famous, which includes a lot of the hedge people and the likes of Madoff. Of course, each time I renew my paper subs I get some girly free gift - I've had perfume before FFS! Best compromise is getting a flowery covered Moleskine-ish notebook. My GF buys Marie Claire. Not as good as it used to be. Used to be loads of piccies of models in undies or not in undies. Now there are all covered up. I blame Germane Greer.
  7. I was just reading the article about Jim Corzine in Vanity Fair - sorry quote does not appear on VF.com article. A quick google brings up another article with the same quote: 'A Fallen Star' http://www.examiner.ie/features/a-fallen-star-176278.html "That’s true of all this baby-boom generation," Corzine recalled. "They learned to borrow early and big." Leverage - greta when it goes your way. Unfortunately, now the boomer's bulge is working its way out of the population they'll have to learn to sell quick and low. The guy's nuts - and was very lucky. He'd almost blown up Goldman Sachs a couple of times during his career. Looks like MF global wern't so lucky. Weird isn't it? The most detailed and accurate articles of the whole 2000s finance and its ultimate blowup have either been in Vanity Fair (various), or Rolling Stone - Matt Taibbi. The mainstream financial press - bar Buttonwood in the Economist - has, in the main, just been printing PR for the investment banks.
  8. Too right. Spaniard - or at least the Catalans (family link by marriage) - make Kirsty And Phil look like some of the posters on here. A big part of the reason is that modern Spain - choose your starting point: death of Franco (74); EU entry (86) has never had a recession. Before that finance -debt and mortgages did not exist. Spain was pretty much a 3rd world until the 80s. Spain spent the 90s being the EUs China. But christ did they start borrowing in the late 90s/00s despite earning f-all money. So welcome to your first modern recession!
  9. No moral objections. Just think is a bad investment. Round me, rentals are seeing multi-month voids; the market is flooded. Going ahead, ukGov pays for about 50% of private rentals. Every year, for the next 10 years, the amount UKGOV will pay is being reduced. Do the sums. There's a house a few (3) from me. Bought as BTL about 5 or 6 years ago. Woman LL spoke to neighbour - investment, yadah, professionals only. 1st tenant - girl + boy, worked in local office. Lasted 10 months. COuld not afford rent. Multimonth void. Another tenant - lasted 3 months more voids. Its now let to some young kids (less than 25) who are sharing. Not sure about the rent - they don;t appear to work. They have all their friends round - i don;t here the noise - but christ does it stink of skunk some days. I have a feeling she's not going to be getting her rent from them.
  10. The answer is simple -the spends are public sector, the saves are private sector. Any idea that concils provide a good, cheap service will be easily quashed by spending a week working with the council. They usually make Remploy look like Goldman Sachs.
  11. I would gladly swapped 12 weeks of fixed holiday for 5 weeks of anytime holiday.
  12. It's accountants/dumb short term thinking. They've cranked down the stock held in stores that all it takes for a few to be sold and the store is out of stock. I went to Blacks a few months ago. I tried buy a pair of size 11 trainer/boot things. Bloke goes and looks - No luck. Then he went into a very long rant about not being able to hold mor than 2 sizes of each shoe and 'what's the point of a shop that does not have things?' ON paper the system looks good - low stock levels/low capital tied up. Till feeds into database, database schedules vans to update stock during the week - say tues + thurs. The reality is I go in on Saturday. Try shoe on, get feet measured. decided to buy. No stock. Get told they might - might mind, not will - have pair in by next Sat. I go home, order on interweb, shoe delivered on Tues. I think the cost was about the same as the shop once postage was added in. Shop goesbust (its Blacks). Accountant is easily automated so gets job stacking shelves.
  13. Read the article (online - not giving money to those tw*ts). Pondered on it during the day. I think EdB is just positioning. Lining up to step in EdM's warm seat. EdM did his state of the moron speech last week. Apparently everything can be fixed by not inflation linking the winter fuel payment for OAPs. I found EdM pitch beyond weird - and beyond any sense of anything really. What sort of Socialist Worker numbnuts is he FFS? He's almost 40 now, not some half-witted 17 year old. Anyhow, rather than setting the UK body politic on fire, EdM re-positioning went down like a damp squib. EdB - I don;t know personally. Weirdly I do know some people from Morley - old Labour, miner type. Now life gets strange and we go into degrees of separation from Kevin WhatHisName - except in this case is like degrees of separation from Hitler (at least he had a popular mandate) Anyhow, I digress. They think he's an odious little ****, dropped on them for a Labour safe seat - think Mandleson/Hartlepool/guacamole. Speaking as a Northern, Working class kid, Labour have just become the party of public sector worker - that's a massive problem for them. They don't speak for me - working in the private sector, having to take their crap services - like it or lump it - for quite a hefty price.
  14. There needs to be a bi-lateral agreement on benefits. A Somali can get a 500/week rental in London when someone in London can get a 400/month rental in Somalia. Until then the can f-off.
  15. The key word is 'agreed' Only 1/3 of houses for sale go through to 'Sale Agreed'. The article then says 1/2 fail. So thats 1/6 of 'for sale' actually complete. That smells right. The years before 2007 saw about 1/3 of sales fail to complete. christ you would not want to be house seller this year - or any of the next 10.
  16. Surely 'no tenants' - going by the number of To Lets that are hanging around.
  17. The Blade, Reading. Not been to Reading for years. Horrible place. I only lived there as it was (relatively) less horrible than Bracknell.
  18. God knows where the article came from. Maybe Ian Cowie is doing some freelance work? I don't live in London. The number of new - i.e. ones I've not seen rented before - has cranked up a bit in the last year - one or two houses per street I monitor. Dumb really as the void period on rental keeps increasing. One flat has been empty for over 8 months. I had hones under the hammer on in the background the other day - last day on holiday, kids gone back to school. One bloke was going to let it out - don;t know if he failed to sell it. Anyhow, his pricing strategy was 'I'll put it on under the market rent to make sure I can pick the tenant'. I feel the BMV BS has spread to rentals- the price it goes for is the market value FFS!!!!
  19. Floating coffin more like. To big, too slow, too easy to hit. You don't have to blow up a carrier with a missile. Just disable it.
  20. Yes. A good EA is not just about photos and pricing. They ought to earn their money in getting the transaction completed. The problem is that although a lot of people may thing of EAs as useless they do not normally think the same of a local solicitor - of which a very large percentage are useless at best, corrupt at worst. Of course that's a good estate agent. Problem is most are not If an EA is under 35 then they probably do not have enough experience and will just waste everyones time.
  21. The water damage and fresh air add character. Rack up the price some more. The house is now priceless - the bad meaning of the word. Jeez there's an architect looking for a law suit. I wonder how many solar panels have been lifted off (with roof) today.
  22. For the majority of cases, a house is only worth what someone can get credit for. You could wait for a cash buyer .........
  23. [quote name='Davetolbooth' timestamp='1325500355' post='3221325' All credit to them for following their dreams - but they haven't thought it through. He's a plasterer and expects to pick up work easy enough. Let me guess 1) Lung problems or 2) Arthritis in his shoulders or elbow. To be honest, the immigration to Ox and NZ are pretty straight forward - You must have a lot of money or very in demand skill. Otherwise f-off.
  24. Town-gown??? Eye brows raising. There are some schools in the place - posh bird/hockey sticks type. Nothing worthwhile after 18. Nope. Winchester is about far West that the posher London commuters are wiling to travel. I'd re-phrase that line to 'town-train'
  25. I concur with Romsey. It's a nice, medium size town. WInchester if you fancy a bigger town. Yes I know its technically a city. B'mouth only has a few nice areas - and they're not Sandbanks. Commuting hell for where you want to go. You need to stay the Soton side of the New Forest. A do-able commute in Winter becomes a multi-hour stuck-behind-a-doddering-old-fart-having-a-drive-in-the-forest in summer. The majority of Soton is cr*p. Pmouth is much worse. I would not live further North of Winchester. No real towns; just chav-infested social dumping grounds.
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