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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. I like Elon too. He's very smart and very hard working. Anyone who sticks it to US car dealers is good in my book. Us car dealers make ours look like saints. Buffer and Gates are so off the scale on list of clever, right-place-right-time, connected, lucky that trying to reproduce their success would be total folly.
  2. And the clarify the Buffet. He spent the first 20 odd years being a good investor and compounding his returns. He ahd a loyal, solid capital base. As Berkshire got much bigger, investing became a bigger problem -How the **** do you invest the billions of cash that Berkshire throws off? So he got more involved in supercat insurance - that's huge, country sized insurance plays.
  3. Again, if gates washed more than once a week and was a bit better at getting into girlies pants, I would not have to use his bloody software. But, hey, you cannot go back in time. I do know a couple of people who worked at MS in the latish 80s. Never assume being rich = good personal hygiene.
  4. There a two types of stupid people: Those who know they are stupid or don;t know something. Those who do not. The former are actually quite smart and rare. The latter are not and common. I speak as someone who once watched the side of house crumble down as an idiot DIYer learned what a retaining wall was.
  5. Depends. What does failure occur? Controlled risk/trying new stuff and learing from failure is a good thing. The world changes. So should you.. Are they designing a nucleur reactor? Some areas endeavour are not a good idea
  6. HNDs and MBAs are academic qualifications. A professional is someone who has got into some form a protected guild. Don't confuse the two. In the old (20+) years ago very few places did MBAs. Then, only realtively high performing managers in relatively high performing companies studied MBAs. The MBA program was nothing more than 1 year brainstorming + comparing best practice at good companies. It also helped fill up your roladex (filofax for 80s UK). You make good contacts or, failing that, get a Polaroid of the future IBM CEO and a prozzy. To say MBA are now devalued is like saying Kim Kardasion has booty. If you don't study an MBA at one of the top 10 business schools then there is no point doing one. Its a face having an MBA being taught by a load of union member public sector lecturers who have never run a business or done much in the way of admin bar the odd cocktail evening when looking for funding. The bigger farce is when the people studying the MBAs are from public sector.
  7. These days, you can succeed by being hard working and not so smart. Just being smart or hard working is not enough any more.
  8. I would not lump Buffer + Gates together. Buffer was/is very good at investing. He's old and has been investing, compounding his returns for 50 odd years. How Berkshire Hathaway make their money is another thing. Despite the golky buy-and-hold good companies gudd, Berkshire is a leverage financial colussus. Sort of like GE without the veneer of a manufacturing company. Our Warren is exploiting his well earned advantage that people will give money and./or equity free just to get his name as investor. Gates is another kettle of fish totally. He was guaranteed not to be poor - his family was very sucessful + rich; he would never fail and have to work in Starbucks. He was nerdy in his personal hyginene and obsessions. He was unndering in his business/money making acumen. How knows, a bit better hygiene and less geeky he might have devoted his time to persuing skirt in the greatre Seattle area. Oh, he was very lucky too.
  9. I think Death needs updating. He ought to swap his scythe for a builder's belt. Then, when he's waiting for that last gasp, he can get on with all those little maintenance jobs that need sorting out in the standard OAP house - fixing the guttering, replacing the washers on the tap, draining the radiators.
  10. Well, what do the UK want? High prices + illiquid housing market, or a (much) lower priced + liquid market? By illiquid I mean houses sitting around for several years and only a few ever transacting. Because that's what I'm seeing at the moment. And its not a market. More like some form of cargo cult.
  11. Esp. the one with which Labour are deeply in the hock too. Maybe Labour could bank with Wonga instead?
  12. That point occured ~2002ish. FTB were replaced by BTLers, who carried on by borrowing against their OO residence to make up the difference.
  13. A detailed budget of where the current money is going would be even more helpful.
  14. Ahh, I knew there was an easy solution. People just have to save a deposit which, 20 years ago, would have been about 70% of the cost of the house. Simple really. Back in the real world, where average reals wages are below where they were 10 years ago ..... most people struggle to put aside more than 200/month. Meanng they'll need to save for almost as long as the mortgage itself to take on the mortgage.
  15. I missed the 'end of October bit'. It looks MMR has totally killed the market after mid-September. Transactions stop dead in September.
  16. Ha! Thought so. MMR has more than halved the number of sales in a few areas I watch.
  17. I did not get that involved. I did not fancy having to clear out a bunglow lived in by an incontinent hoarder. 5 skips full of cr.p from TV sales channels and Sunday supplements. The bunglalow is close to Castlepoint. I really do not know if that's a plus or a negative. Other than Boscombe, which I know is a cr.phole, I do not know the areas well. GF is not interested. Her brother is, so I might find out what they've got for it. Also when I say 'Sold' I mean it in the broadest sense i.e. I do not know if they have the cash or just someone offering to buy the place. B'mouth is hardly short of places up for sale. It was a forest of For Sales + To Lets last time I went thru. I would guess there are more probates than you shake a walking stick at.
  18. It took my GF's Uncle ~18 months to shift her Gran's bunglalow in Charmouth-y area. OAPs are no longer moving to the seaside.
  19. There's only one popular city - London - and that's cos its all subbed and/or tax payer funded - bankers, benefits, public sector. Why would a bank repo - because they are having trouble raising capital and its easier to shrink their books rather to fund it. With the new rules, an IO mortgage is total poison to a bank's capital base. Year in, year out, the loan stays the same size. Outside of London, most IO mortgage are in negative equity plus it'll cost the bank ~20K to repo.
  20. Housing wise, you're not going to achieve much in 5 months. Average time to sell and move in is running at around ~ 6 months.
  21. That's not what Ive seen outside of London. I monitor a couple of areas: SouthWest and Yorks coast. SW did see some activity in the later half of last year/this year. It was more about people buying rather than people selling i.e. people investing in doing up big old lady houses. The SW mortgage market rang out of money in ~2002. Its been bumping along with the odd bit of BTL. There are loads of BTLs. Its gone back to being dead - salaries outside of London just cannot support house prices. The average wage can support a mortgage of ~80k. Oh, and you can forget commuting to London - way too expensive for Mon-Fri - 10K+ seaso nticket and going up. The Yorks coast is more typical for areas way out of London. I watch a number of towns: still popular seaside town, no longer popular seaside town and would-not-live-there-if-paid-me-post-industrial-town. The popular seaside town saw residential mortgages drop of the cliff (pub) in 2002ish. The market was supported by people buying holiday homes - think a BTL with a seagull on it + a lot more work. The numbers of people having 2nd holidays has fallen off since the recession. The market is grossly overbought. RM prices stats shows ramp 2000->2004 and then price bouncing around 2004 prices. The number of transactions is about 30%-50% of a normal market. People are trying to exit their holiday homes but cannot sell. I would guess about 60% of the housing stuck has been up for sale over the last 10 years. Very little of it has transacted. The no-longer-popular-town is dead. No demand for holiday homes. Sales have been dead for ~15 years. Big demographic shift - loads of probates, no buyers. OAPs leave houses in a box not a removal lorry. Prices are nuts - places come on the market and sit around for ever. Big discount on houses that have being for sale for >2 years. Its really a buyers market. I dont know what discount people will take but I can see an EA recommend a 30% cut just to get some stuff shifted. Local wages can support a mortgage of ~50k. The post-industrial-town is dead. What little economic activty is public sector, bossted by asylum seekers. The town is a sh1t hole. Any property investment you've made their really should be written off. There are no local wages outside of the public sector.
  22. RM is what ~ 140 years old? Its a clique that's sewn the business up. Unions/management, different sides of the same coin. You've got the poor posty getting screwed on one end and the customer screwed on the other.
  23. With you on that. You could halve the number of foot posties by delivering only every other day. Gte some decent capital investment in and the cost will drop. A lot. RM working practives have been held back by a stroppy union and sh1t management. Strikes by posties are going to be like the strikes by fire service. In the days of oven chips (no chip pans), gas central heating (no open), efags (no matches/fags) the number of residential has dropped off massively. There's still RTAs but they would be better addressed by a special unit.
  24. Ahh the great Harriet Green. I remember her years (20?) when she worked at an electronic disti - RS? Its nice to see a different to white middle class man duffer running struggling companies. Shes a white, middleclass woman duffer. Give her credit, she is catching a falling knife.
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