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spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Hmm, sounds like virgins done up the wrong un by monster c.ck. Was this meant to be a pro-property programme? Doesn't sound like it.
  2. I should add that I do not have a moral objection to people buying BTL - their money, their choice. I just cannot see how they can make figures work. Equally, I do object to QE - its was fine for a couple of quarters to smooth over a hiccup but its gone on too long. I don't think the BoE should tighten but it should normalise IR ASAP - 4%
  3. Very good post. TMT's reasons not to hits the nail on the head too. My BIL lives in Catalonia. After spending his 20s, 30s and most 40s working as little as possible as a language teacher, he and a mate suddenly decided the only way to retire was too buy loads of flats in Barcelona and 'let them out'. This was 2006-ish. Fortunately, his feckless money situation gave him a poor credit and he couldn't borrow any money - in Spain at the time, that was the equivalent of not getting a sh.g in a Brothel - which was another of his get rich schemes. To list of financially desperate, Id add public sector workers esp. teachers. The belief in the 'government' is beyond belief. Combine that with barely functioning numeracy and you've got the biggest patsies going.
  4. Said it earlier in the thread - forget the HPI. Look at the number of the transactions.
  5. Reading or Cambridge? God hope not Swindon! I arrived in Reading when the last collapse happened - 91. There was a moment in 91ish when everybody looked at IRs going up and looked around them and, seeing the place for it was, legged it. They were coughing up London prices to live in a god awful dump of a place. The problem is the more expensive and area is, the more leveraged it becomes and the harder it gets hit in the downturn.
  6. Err, forget whether the rise is above inflation (its not). Forget whether there is any activity outside of London and its very near suburbs (there's s.d all). There were only 40K mortgages! In the entire country!!!! Way below the number of probate sales.
  7. I heard this on the Radio this morning. So, by 30s and 40s, he means a significant number of people who took out mortgages in the last 10 (2003)-15 (1998) years are probably in varying degrees of trouble. There's a possibility that the majority (50%+) are scr.wed. Why no mention of BT? Sure, there's a lot fewer BTLs than new home owners but they bought more properties than OO - 2 or 3. And - God! - you should see the length of voids they are getting - 3 to 4 months is not unusual. I was trying to explain QE to someone a few years ago by stating that if (a big 'If') it worked then you were trading off a period of lower IR against a longer period of much higher IR later. Looks like we are entering 'later' now.
  8. +100 Single parent - Tick. Kid - Tick 16 low wage, low hours job - Tick. Unfortunately she's screwed come October when the UC will reduce the free money and increase the hours work. Total genius. Sells her furniture - where you get less than a tenth of the cost back. Then buys new stuff: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/Woman-sold-possessions-buy-new-house-secures/story-19360703-detail/story.html What other investment advice does she have? Buy high, sell low??
  9. What as - a poor, busty student or a cheapster punter?
  10. I'd call BS on his skills. If he was in IT + management in Spain than he'd speak reasonable English. He'll have run the bar - sometimes - and done the website and/or tills.
  11. http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/yorkshire-living/leisure-fashion/homes/for-sale-for-the-first-time-the-new-home-in-a-medieval-tower-1-5753898 http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/26532968 If you've ever been to York you'll know the place. Anyhow, this place has some history. Bought by York's resident property buffon David Hattersley in Oct 2006 for 645K SHTF in May 2009: http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/4364075.Entrepreneur_David_Hattersley_hands_over_enterprises_to_bank/ http://www.bridgingandcommercial.co.uk/mobile-article-desc.php?id=1190&title=flamboyant-property-personality-sees-hotel-empire-sold-off-by-administrators#.UcIJRsB140g Bought in Jun 2010 for 550K. Up for sale now @ £1.3m Now I don't know what state the place was in when it sold for the 2nd time. The buffoon had owned it for ~3 years. The buyer claimed they were going to live in it. Now they've decided to sell up. York may by posh by day. Come night (esp. race day) its a Pikey fist fest. Imagine a very drunken young farmers do - they all come in from the Wolds, Moors and Middlesbroguh. Drink loads and be sick. New owner claims to have spent 300K on it. Unless the place was a ruin then I cannot see where the money has gone. Its a scheduled ancient monument too. Talk to any Grade x listed house and the cost of maintaining it. Scheduled ancient monuments maintenance costs make a Grade 1 mansion look like new city flat.
  12. Here's a blog on the mess the various central bankers have made since Paul Volcker: http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/06/central-banks-and-markets Here's a link from the blog: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7eeb6780-d823-11e2-b4a4-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WeUFzZuo Basicaily, no happy end to QE. Base rates might not be going up but the guess is that bond rates are. Bond rates influence bank's borrowing costs more then base rates.
  13. Assuming hte orignal poster is correct - and I have no reasons to doubt time - EA going nuts this property cycle is pretty common. They really believed their own BS this time. I don't remember EAs taking on so much extra property during the last uptick - 85-91ish. But then mortgage did not exist for BTL type investments, expescially not at the leverage seen this time > 90% LTV Bets you could get would have been a business loan on about 30% LTV. Anyhow, back to the point. Friends has worked for years at a local posh EA (arn't they all?). The partners, 4 or 5, ages from mid-40s to mids-60s are all beyond nuts deep this time. Average is rtheir own residential, 2 BTLs (one has 5) and a holiday house. BTLs are post 2005-ish. Talk about leverage and eggs in one basket. They've got the eggs, the chickens, the hen house and farm in a single basket. Of course, it goes without saying the EA business is swallowing cash. Has been for the last 5 years. No money for partners.
  14. Let me re-write the headline for you: 'Old have to wait 14 years before Young have saved up enough money to buy House from them'
  15. I think you'll find that's Milrpur Pakistani-ish. With a second place to West Africans.
  16. Disagree about the Navy. The Navy had its moment in the sun when the enemy was just over the channel - France, Spain, etc. These days - Nope. The action is too far away and too much can go wrong on the way there. Combine that with a large metal ship having to face 30 year missle technology and you have a very expensive. limited bit of kit. Witness the size of air craft carrier conveys by the US. More and more ships, travelling less and less. Give it a few years and air craft carriers will just trundle round San Franciso bay.
  17. I voted No. I think it'll be tight though. Remember we are not talking about normalising rates rather than tightening. At the moment they hould be at about 3% -4% Add in a spread of about 150 basis points and you get a mortgage rate of ~6% - for a good risk (if one of those exist anymore). In reality, the banks are suffering with BoE rates lower than their cost of funding - bonds. Banks can borrow some money at BoE rates - their is always a counter party. To get anything like the amount of credit they need then they they need to raise credit by selling bonds. So the future is either: 1) Very little credit; uber low housing transaction. or 2) Mortgage rate @ 6% All this when the UK as a whole probably have about 5 years stock untransacted. Don't let the sales flood drown you.
  18. Yep the Cliff Street houses stand out like a sore thumb - or a business that's not washing its face. I found this when I was googling: http://37cliffstreetwhitby.co.uk/prices-availability/ This is definitely a 'family owned business'. The off-peak week prices are probably cheaper than a mortgage! Things to note: - They price very low. The off-peak prices are cheaper than a mortgage or rent for a week! - They are smart enough to not use the agencies - 25% of your money for putting up and colour photo and answering the phone. - They are low cost - minimal clutter; bedding is extra. - They are fully booked. Compare this with my earlier post of the YP featured woman: paid more than top dollar, fills the house with over priced tat, uses an agency, prices too high, still not fully booked. The fundamental problem the YP woman has is that people use a holiday home for sleeping, cooking and washing. They don't really care about the tat. Then we come to a problem about exiting your business. How do you come up with a price? Are you selling the place for someone to live in? If so then it has to be someone retiring and bringing their money with them - vary rare in Whitby - too cold, too hilly, too far away from stuff. Or a local - then it has to be a multiple for wages. Talk of 3.5 wages = 3 bed room house does not apply in Whitby. Years ago, I knew an old BS manager. He told me that they would only lend a max of 2.5/single wage to the Whitby area as a lot of work was seasonal and the non-seasonal work was so limited that the risk of someone losing a job and not being to find a new one was too high. But this was the early 80s when things were less 'dynamic'. The chat was due to my Dad and his work mates from Stainesacre were having trouble getting mortgages when working at Plaxtons. I was only about 12 at the times but I was being used to work out the finance and t+cs for them - in Whitby the man who can do percentages is King! Or you could sell the business as a going concern. Cough cough. There's a B+B I know thats listed on one of the business for sales website for 600K. They state a gross profit of 18K. You need to take 2 peoples wages and any finance from that. Nuts! This is why a quick check on rightmove and business for sales shows loads. Take the obnoxious truck driver representing Scabby on Three in a bed: http://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/business/guests-distraught-over-selling-hotel-1-4299920 Bought in 2004 Up for sale Mar 2012 @ 550K. (That's 8 years trading, which is about average). They claim a 'trading profit' of 90K. These figures tend to be simple revenue minus costs with no account for owners wages. Price now 490K. Now if the place did return a 90K profit then i'd buy it tomorrow and staff it with Poles. 20% yield woohoo! You think its hard selling a residential house in Whitby? Try selling a business. Witness the sage of the White Horse + Griffin. Or the ongoing saga of The Ellerby Hotel.
  19. No new news on the bloke. He was buried the other day. I don't doubt he's left a massive fianancial hole in various places. Time will tell on this. As far as new cars - same as everywhere else Motability (a large percentage of the area issigned off on the sikc) and finance - pay £200/month for xxx (balance of 6K remaining to be paid after 3 years).
  20. Coincidence ..... or coordination ????? Three trials, 11 defendants and a multi-million pound mortgage fraud: how house-buyers and mortgage brokers conned banks out of £3m http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/10478892.Three_trials__11_defendants_and_a_multi_million_pound_mortgage_fraud__how_house_buyers_and_mortgage_brokers_conned_banks_out_of___3m/?ref=mr
  21. Told you so: 'He probably is miffed about being taken off the bomb-disposal task still left on the bank’s balance sheet. ' http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/12/1533472/hester-la-vista/ Hester is not there to run the bank. He's dismantling all the moronic cr.p that UnSir Fred spend the last 15 years putting together.
  22. Bit unfair to the bloke. There's a lot of unjustfied 'Im worht it' in the city. Hester is not one of those. He's pretty unique. He earned his spurs working with Luqman Arnold defusing Abbey National. Some history: Abbey National, finding its demutualised wings starting doing loads and loads wholesale commercial loans and other totally illiquid stuff. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbey_National So much that no one could work out if the bank was bust or not. This was 2000-2002ish Arnold + Luqman were parachuted in to dismantle all the cr.p and release some capital. Basicailly, they had to shovel heaping piles of cr.p that the half-witted building society people had been convinced were going to make them loads of money. The Abbey National story from demutualisation (1989-2002) would be good to know in detail. Maybe Hester will write some as a f-you to Gidio, who appears to have fallen for the same sort of smooth talking BS from someone who really knows his stuff: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/11/1531682/translation-competition-algebris-edition/ .
  23. You been to Port Clarence? Lovely vista of Europe's biggest chemical processing sector - Seal Sands. Those metal doors are there to keep your new neighbours out. Not worth the copper in the pipes. Which has probably been nicked by now.
  24. And Russian, and <whatever)-stans, and Indian, and Columbian http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/10/1530362/how-to-dodge-the-money-laundering-police/ What are the rumours - 3/4 of London purchases are by foreigners? Kensington spin-cycle? Richmond spin-dry?
  25. You a Weatherill? Maybe not, they are the people letting them out. Mount Galleries ring a bell. I'm pretty sure I know which cottages you mean - 3 in a row, Khyber Pass end of Cliff Street? I saw these a few months ago. Curious - originally I thought they were houses that had been bought in a 2005-ish frenzy. But then I checked the interweb and I could not see any history i.e no ownership change for at least 20 years. I then assumed they were family hierloom houses. But then all three have been major interior refits. The 3rd cottage they claim is new to 2010. Which begs the question - Did they have a little old lady sitting tenant who recently died? I don't think they'll sell for anywhere near those prices. They are being too greedy and too late. Let mosy people in the area, they should have flogged then before 2007. Oh, I work away too. Its a curse to the local area.
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