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spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Nope disagree with that. The LA shave propped up the shrinking cities + towns. Overtime time the prop has got bigger and more expensive. It'll be a horrendous pop. In my case, Middlesbrough. Housing there should be dirt cheap. Its relatively cheaper but its not dirt cheap. If you let it fall you stand a chance of proper regeneration i.e. people leaving expensive areas to somewhere cheaper. Execept its not cheaper - local taxes are swallowed propping up the state - both benefits and public salaries. Public services in boro should be great - loads of public sector workers on national wage scales. In the main, they're cr.p.
  2. Its too early. I read the URL as Homo daddy. What a load of cr.p. What a load of useless d1cks in the banks for lending to him. End of the day social housing involves offering a very expensive service (housing) to people with no money, hoping the DSS will step in and underwrite it. LA housing benefit is being reduced by 5% to 10% a year for the forseeable future. Its an effort to align social rents with local wages after Labour totally screwed prices by paying the average, which caused social rents to accelerate. Reading the webpages: 'In other words HMO Daddy can help you to get started by acquiring for you your first, or even a portfolio of HMO properties. HMO Daddy has also produced ready made packaged deals for investors to buy which give returns on your investment of up to 55% if you manage the properties yourself, or returns of 42% fully managed, with HMO Daddy doing all the work for you.' Offloading his portfolio. I'd like to see the figures that went into calculating those returns. Where's the mention of voids FFS?
  3. Incidently, growing up with friends who had parents like these, I'm on the side that the housing is for the kids not the parents. Saying that, the ugly f-king parents should be kicked out as soon as the youngest is 16.
  4. Thats one f-king ugly baby. I like these articles. My mum says 'All babies are beautiful'. I wave the paper at her.
  5. I agree with CoB. There will be very little credit going into housing - boom or not. Wage inflation is unlikely - it would kill the government due to indexed costs. My local town (in the North) an average 3 bed semi would require an income of 60K. The average wage is 19K. Remember is a first-time buyer cannot buy than home owner cannot sell. Transaction rates are on the floor. Do you really want to sit on a probate sale for 4 years? Do you want to wait around for 5 years before you can sell? The longer transaction rates are on the floor, the more housing stock builds up behind it - think a bulging zit getting bigger and bigger. The only solution is for house prices to come down. The cost of credit will happen when US QE ends and US rates start going up over the next 12 months, which will be in the next 12 months. You'll see SVRs reach 5%-6%. A lot of house sellers are going to have chase very few buyers.
  6. I should add that I've dealt with the the Job Centre people as a claimant (grand total of 3 months) and trying to source a receptionist. Anything more technical than breathing without opening they're mouths would be a challenge to the people who work there. Spy's simple suggestion: Bank peoples NI contribution against their NI number. Let them draw it down for 2 years when they are unemployed. That'll deal with 90% of people and give them the welfare they expect.
  7. I think they're just going to tweak the current parameters rather than rely on UC: - Each adult must work 30-35 hours to qualify for tax credit. - Tax credit money will be set to about 30xNMW for single, 70 x NMW for couple. - Go on JSA when the youngest reaches 5. - Cap on 2 kids. - Housing benefit reduced by about 5 to 10% each year for the next 10 years.
  8. Yep. but the effect will be higher in places with higher living costs - York, London, SE etc. I am always flabbergasted when you get these talking head economists talking about the post-boom economy and how well employment is holding up. Its the tax credits I scream - you are classed as employed even though you pull out 20K from the state. Total f-king madness!
  9. I read the paper version of this on Saturday. I wondered who was spinning a line. York was a very blue collar city. You can think of York as being a Northern Swindon with a nice minster and Roman wall. York has lost a the majority of those jobs - food processing/sugar beet, sweeties, carriages works. There was a plan that these would be replaced by services, however Avviva/Ga that was is stripped, CPP the laughable bank card scamter has been found out is probably going to fold in the next few weeks. You have odds +sods like Minster Law, a few regional accountants and law firms - all trying to merge with each other at the mo. The Uni is expanding. I don't that adds a huge deal to the York economy. The money does not leach out that much - just beers in towns. York, probably more so than other cities, depends on tax credits and housing benefits - 16 hours in a cafe, state tops you up to 25K Kerching! Come the end of family tax credit, come the end of York's economy.
  10. To be frank, the westcliff beyond the whale bones is a bit of mystery to me. Im actually from a village 4 miles down the coast, which you should guess. Other than the Chinese (s+s king prawns, boiled rice) and cross country running across bits of it I did not notice much of it - mainly cos I was running fast to make sure I was a good few kids ahead of hcollet, who used to 'volunteer' to help out. Once you get out of the towns and villages there is a quite bit of feudalism going on. You'll get it with Lord of Sandsend. I get it with Strickland and the moors - although the Stricklands seem to be dying out. Bad sperm or something. The Marquess seems to popping a fair few out. I did wonder if they were a little cash-poor about 10 years ago. They seemed to be offloading the odd property . You've also got that ongoing financial scam that is Skelwith going on. I've commented about them on this site. God knows when that is going to hit the buffers. I would have thought it would have happened by now. I think they have a large number of captive IFA duping people about of their money for they're guaranteed 8%/year. Incidently, my uncle lived pretty close the house when he came out of the navy. He got a job a Fylingdales and got his RAF house along Love lane for a couple of years before he moved back to bay.
  11. Yes. The volumes of UK housing is on the floor - even London. The London housing market is different as the majority of transaction appear to be laundering. Sure the people's whose house is used for laundering are getting a cut and cash is spilling to other area. Not sure how long this can go on - cross border corruption is pretty hot at the moment.
  12. 200k get a yield of 4% = 8k/year. that abot 8 x 10 day all inc - food, booze, hotel, flights on the costas at the moment. Or you could rent a house in spain for 6 months over winter - sep - apr and feed yourself. That's why holiday in the uk are f-cked. Its just too expensive for too little good weather. food is too expensive.
  13. Is that Jan Fletcher trying to offload large amounts of property to pay her court bills? Seriously, there must be the a lot of very leveraged property in Leeds when you consider the number of active (circa 2006) property 'investors' and the dumb (ex) banks - HBOS, B+B.
  14. I had my lightbulb moment when I thought back to my shared-house days. Trying to get a reliable, solvent house mate was pretty hard. And this was in the days of very few rentals (early to mid 90s). Today, I walked around the block near where my son goes to cubs. There were 4 houses up fro let. All empty. There's just not that many solvent tenants at the best of times. End of the day you're selling a very expensive service (housing) to people who do not have much money (young renters). That is not a good business. Same as sub-prime lending - unless you're Crowbar Cedric.
  15. I follow a few places: South Wiltshire/West Hanmpshire/East Dorset + North Yorks. In the SW this has been the first year for a good 6 when you have had houses coming to the market - at least having a 'For Sale' sign up. A few have gone SSTC. A few appear to genuinely sold. The few that have sold have gone for 2003-ish prices - I know as a friend's just shifted hers - as in completed - 3K more than she paid for it in 2002. She'd put in about 10K worth or work - labour excluded. I've seen a few more 'waves' of For Sale signs go up. This is unusual - most stuff tends to be put up Easter time. Not sure whats driving it - optimism, pessimism desperation. Who knows. NY its just piling up. Signs go down then come up a few months later. By that time a good few new/old places are back up. There's probably 6+ years stock on the market. It'll never clear in a lot of the seller's lifetime. London - I hear anecdotes, Slightly better number of transaction but it all is foreign buyers. Rich russians buy prime stuff. Dumb chinese trying to launder money in Battersea newbuild flats. All ares show transaction that are 20-30 percent of the normal transaction levels - if we ever see those again.
  16. 'Washing its face' is a term used to describe if a business is making money, or at least covering its costs. 8 weeks booked in summer - assuming the woman is not making making use of the house herself - even @ 1K/week will not pay for the finance never mind maintenance. Poet's view is a bit different. What about the old favourite of 'Mariner's Cottage', 'Spy Glass Lookout' etc etc etc. I don't know this particular house but surely its looking out down over the beach to Sandsend. I doubt you'd see the Abbey from the attic window.
  17. Oh there was a rumour going round that he was head mason and was using a house in Whitby for perverted Satanic rites. Check out the real whitby website. A load of conspiracies, published by a bunch of pains in the ar5e. But they do have a point about SBC.
  18. Ahh Kenyon - that''l explain the shuffling. Does it have an expensive looking fence (Mr Jane Kenyon joke). Maybe the work was spent washing down the secret Savile Satanic sex dungeon . . . http://www.yorkshirecoastalcottages.com/search/property/poets_view Jesus. She's gone to town on the decor. That will take more than a couple of hours to clean and turnover. Shes got July + August booked. Then a couple of weeks in the rest of the year. Does not wash its face..
  19. Pondered if this deserves a topic of its own, apart from my other Whitby Post. If the story was not so wierd then I would not. However, as posts are free ... Advertorial type article in the YP: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/yorkshire-living/leisure-fashion/homes/a-different-point-of-view-1-5829354 Knock yersleves out. Nothing unusual or unexpected. By the sea blah blah fell in the love blah blah bought blah blah available to rent blah blah. Then I read the following: 'The house had been sold but I asked the agent to call me if it fell through and he did.”' 'When the original sale fell through, Michele stepped in, buying the property in February 2012.' 'It had been a much-loved second home, owned by the same family for 27 years, and is one of Whitby’s famous turreted houses with a prime spot overlooking the sea with panoramic views to the harbour, Abbey and nearby Sandsend. It also has the advantage of private parking in a town where most drivers have to fight it out for a space on the street.' Lets see what the sales history says: Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Last sale: £421,000 | Sale date: 20th Feb 2012 Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Previous sale: £400,000 | Sale date: 3rd Jan 2012 Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Previous sale: £375,000 | Sale date: 30th Jul 2004 Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Previous sale: £197,500 | Sale date: 29th Oct 2001 Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Previous sale: £160,000 | Sale date: 5th May 2000 Property type: Detached | Tenure: Freehold | Previous sale: £145,000 | Sale date: 30th Jul 1999 Its possbile that the family has been selling it between themselves. Unlikely though. Think oft he transaction costs - 4 sales within 5 years FFS! Previous sales fell through? That would be the one in Jan 2012, wheere they flipped it back for an extra £21K. 4 weeks ownership, 21K profit (minus costs) kerching. Hats off to the seller. Her lists of useful contact includes: Kristy’s, beauty therapy, Flowergate, Whitby, www.kristys.co.uk “I didn’t know any builders but I know how resourceful women are, so my first stop was Kristy’s beauty salon on Flowergate, which is one of my favourite shops. I asked her if she knew anyone and she asked her sister, who is a hairdresser. Between them and their clients they came up with a fantastic bunch of tradespeople.” and: “I was six weeks without any heat or electricity so that was quite tough. It was freezing so I used to go to Kristy’s salon and soak in the hot tub in her spa to warm up,” she says.' Hope hubbies got deep pockets.
  20. 15% is a bit of a guestimate by doing righmove searches and just counting the For Sale signs as I walk about and remembering places that were up for sale but did not transact 15% is about 1/7 houses up for sale. I could accept the figure is 1/10. I doubt its less than that. I found the sentence a weird thing to say too. Why admit things are less than rosy when you've spent the last 15 years boosting the town and its investment potential. I can only assume they spend their days on the phone to irate OO sellers and holiday cottages owners asking why there's no buyers or why no one wants to let a 2 bedroom cottage for £1000/week. I should add that my only face-to-face experience with the bloke was getting dragged into his office by a mate who'd been trying to flog his flat on Hudson Street. This was 93/94. There was such a large number up for sale that the great man was only sending round to his favoured few and shoving my mates place at the back of the queue. My mate found out about this as he second cousin's kid was working as an office junior or something and had overheard him say this. Whitby was still that kind of place back then - about 70% of the population had family connection to another - blood or marriage.
  21. 10 Y treasuries sort of provide the floor IR for all government's debt - Bar Japan, whihc is exceptional in being a massive exporter and a captive bond buying population. If 10Y treasuries yield goes up than Gilts yield go up. Any talk that the BoE can keep Gilts yields down when treasuries go up is financial Canutism, monetary Wizard of Oz'ness.
  22. Think back to when mass formal education started in this country. 150 years ago? Books were very expensive, few people were literate, land was cheap. Getting a half educated spinster to stand in front of chalk board doing ABC + 123 was cheap. Now, literacy is widespread - christ most of the other parents I know from my kids state school are well educated. You don't swallow some BS on scores distribution and bias from a teacher who has a crap Art and Humanities degree (if that) when you've got a Maths or Engineering degree. I know a couple of teachers as peers know - again via the kids. My argument is simple - What value do you add to the course material? Blank stares. Same at the corporate training level - which I've not had for a number of years. Better to go Google for a selection of books and then go on Amazon a look at reviews. 2 days listening to someone waffle - sometimes the person really knows his stuff, in which case you can ask for a book list. Educational hand-hoe meet the internet combine harvester.
  23. I cannot speak for academia but in the working world we tend to use the CV as a base point then start asking questions, then asking questions around the questions. People lie/spin on their CVs. Companies lie/about about their jobs. Its dumb what people try. The most laughable interview Ive been in is someone claiming to fluent in French (which there was no requirement for). This was for a compnay near the South coast, where France is only about 60 miles as the crow flies away. The area is full of French people in their 20s 1) escaping the crap Frence economy and 2) Improving their English (to help with 1). So we send the French office manager in to talk to him. In French. If you lie - as a person or a company - expect to be found out. Its far from an ideal world but thats they way it is. By the way, I don;t tend to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone who's lived in Thailand. I use a working assumption of a lazy prozzy hooper/cheap smack head. and then wait to be proved wrong. I've never be wrong so far.
  24. And somewhere one brick falls out of a grand universities dining hall building . . . Shame they are only concentrating on university courses. Why not O levels/GCSEs? Me + mates at work compare our O level experience. We reckon each O level was ~150 hours, taught over 2 years (40 + 30 weeks) = ~ 2 hours//week. Bit of mixed lessons - Khan Academy type video, bit of self examining, bit of submitted homework + marked every 2 weeks. Say £100 for access to the video + online resources + registration. Say £10 for each marked assignment. O level at cost of ~£500. Cost of your standard 8 Os over 2 years= 4K, 2K year. Much cheaper than the BS figures that state schools as cost per pupil/year of 5K.
  25. I was looking at their website - mainly to see if they've kept up with the hosting fees. The obviously don;t know how to maintain it. One bit hasthe bloke still living. The Our People section has been turned into a cut+paste obit. There's a very strange last few lines: 'xxx had a true passion for the town in which he lived, worked and played, with a supportive family and dedicated staff behind him. xxx's involvement in the regeneration will continue as demand for the limited amount of property with which Whitby is endowed will return strongly and sooner than many think.' I don't get the regeneration bit. Flogging off the Eastside + west cliff and building a load of cr.ppy new builds flats and god-awful tiny cottages opposite is a long way from regeneration. Whitby is a small town. It has limited property in that sense. It does not have a limited amount for sale - the percentage up for sale is pretty high >15%. Return strongly + sooner. B.lls - The majority of visitors out + about in Whitby either depend on benefits or working for the public sector.
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