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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Maybe we should be celebrating the 'new' disabled for their new freedom. After all, 50 odd years ago someone with a non-specific 'lung condition', preventing them from working, would be confined to a metal lung or maybe a sanitorium in Bournemouth. Now, the advances in medical science and generous DLA allows that individual to go to football, drink 10 pints and have a scrap with a police horse: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/newcastle-united-fan-who-punched-1836372
  2. MIRAS took the sting out of high IRs. Wage's running ahead of inflation @ 10% reduced the mortgage in real terms. 5 years and the nominal debt had halved. Its a very different game with low infaltion and lower wages. Not that the banks or the people borrowing from them have bothered to calculate.
  3. Anecdotally, I would guess 70% of disabilities in Teesside are either swinging it: bad back, depression, or have conditions that people would not classify as disabilities - alcholisms, or self inflicted obesity and smoking related stuff.
  4. My take from this is: don't do deal in $ with dubious countries. Use Euros. The US has had enough in seigniorage over the last 20 odd years since the US stopped being a net creditor. Scr.w em, let them be Argentina.
  5. No, you can compare regions of England against other regions. Equally, you can compare English regions against regions in other Western European countries. Comparing Teesside against the Thames valley would indicate that there a large number of dubious, if not fraudulent claims. And don't its because Teesside is industrial - its not. You'll also see a suspicious grouping around vague, non physical disabilities - bad backs, depression, stress.
  6. No, I think Carney's earned his money by prevaricating, so the markets did not blow up 2010-2014. They needed an outsider i.e. non-BoE body, who had credibility - cough cough, it is Economists we are talking about here. Carney's lucky that the FED has not made a move during his term. How long he can keep delaying the inevitable is anyone's guess. He doesn;t care; he's off back to Canada in a couple of years.
  7. Hmm, Carney's number is pure wishful thinking. He's looked at the UK debts, calculated what we can afford and come up with a percentage. Bean's number if just the result of averaging out the IRs over 300 years of the BoE existence. Neither are earning their money.
  8. So, working on the assumption of BoE base rate @ 2.5%. Would anyone like to guess what the normal spread over BoE rates for a bank to raise mortgage credit? Historically, its been ~2%. Moving forward, I would guess its going to be much higher. And them what about the spread at which they'll lend that money, bearing in mind all banks need to raise capital and write down a massive number of loans.
  9. Anyone got any record of what Mark 'Gypsy Rose-Lee' Carnage had to say in 2002 about what would happen in 2007? Anyone? Anything? Thought not. The UK is running a deficit of ~7% - the highest in the developed world. The UK government debt is getting to the point of no return. Does this look like a low rate economy to you?
  10. There are some good posts on FTAV today. One post has a very good reply, which I copied as it not sourced from the FT: London Gets a Monetary Policy http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/06/26/1887622/london-gets-a-monetary-policy/ Jack Grahl | June 26 11:06am | The problem with just asking banks to 'pretend' that rates have risen, rather than actually putting up rates, is that it only affects those people who are constrained to buying using residential mortgages. In other words, people who work and pay tax in the UK and who want to buy a house there in order to live in it. Anyone who can speculate on London housing using other sources of funds is free to continue doing so. Putting up interest rates would dampen the ardor or all of these people. Unfortunately it might also reveal UK economic growth to be a house of cards based on hidden underemployment and misplaced consumer confidence (much of it from those people whose houses in London have gone up 19% in the last year). I also read a good comment about macroprence vs. raising IRs: Banks will find a way to game macro-prudence rules, fracturing and distorting the market. Raising IRs manages will always manage to get in all the finacial cracks.
  11. True. More people renting = less demand for carpets. They'll be kept til the underside shows. I'd say 50%+ of pople I've visited tend to have wood floors these days. I personally have never liked carpets and would go for solid wood + rugs all the time.
  12. You think the computer choked on the LTV? HSBC are pickey to the point of panic over 75% LTV.
  13. Was Seen On Screen This is a dressy version of that brilliant MBA plan to concentrate the majority of hard disk manufacturing in Thailand. What could go wrong - building the most of the world's hard disk plants in a cheap labour country (which is also prone to floods and earthquakes). ASOS have a single ware house, built in an unemployment blackspot, where there are probably some big chips on shoulders as the previous employment was well paying mining jobs - 30 years ago mind.
  14. I don't think they have any guns, or any idea how to fire them.
  15. Yep. Nothing to do with helping NEETs. All to do with keeping a load of useless, thick, unemployable FE teachers in gainful employment. UK state education fails to provide 40% of pupils with a pass in English and Maths. The cost of each pupil is ~6K/years, as the pension is unfunded, that rises to 10K/year So it costs us ~20K for each pupil getting across a very low bar,
  16. To be honest, if I had a mortgage with Santander Id be more worried about Santander going bust rather than rates increasing. Santnader - the bank hled together with paper and spit and a very accomodating regulator.
  17. Flat roofed, polished concrete boxes cum garages are to architect what xxxx foams are to chefs - they all do it and they are fcking stupid idea. Isn't Stormy Castle where Peppa Pig goes? Still, lots of work for a flat roof fixed 10 year down the line.
  18. Flooding with cash! They don't have any cash. They never had any - it was all leverage.
  19. Mine is. I want a contribution based system. You get a lot more whne you lose your job, the ammount tapers off to nothing after 2 years. Then workfare kicks in. The people who pay into the current system get too little. The people who pay f-all get too much.
  20. The UK, and London esp., has some really scary multiples. I was in the SE as the prices went from 5+ PE (1989)-> about 2.5 (97). Then, the fall was cushioned by medium wage inflation - 5% to 10%. London wages are just that higher than the UK average - ~26K.
  21. I tried the sums on the HSBC mortgage calculator. First, I needed a 25% deposit. The repayments came out around ~500. I cannot really find anywhere where you can get a house for the money where there is the economy to support the rent. That's ignoring ~1000 maintenance/year, 2 months void (which is the norm around my current town).
  22. I'm not a socialist. I am hard nosed, Northern working class lad - I believe in collective insurance schemes rather than free money from the government. I am very anti-government. The tories never had a mandate for reform - they are in a coalition government FFS, Labour 97 really did, and promised it. Frank Field came up with the 'unthinkable' and got ditched as it did not fit in with Brown's 'money for votes' scam. Poor and disabled? As a rough rule of thumb, in my experience, less than 10% of DLAs are disabled. Very few of those can do no work at all. Poor - maybe. Not working - yep.
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