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House Price Crash Forum

spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Its the Independent, itll be shit and wrong. With FIAT, Central bsnks create money. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/how-is-money-created However, the way the banks works, they charge IR on that rented money and destroy it when the debt is paid. What went very wrong in the UK is the banks held so little against bank ;endign that they could leverage their capital to insane levels. And products like IO mortgage need banning - they should not exist in the regulated banking sector. At all.
  2. No, pops wrong. You could leverage up on IO and deduct the mortgage interest against rent, leaving zilch tax to pay. The one I knew 'made' zilch, afetr costs - 1k/rent, 900/m rent, few deductions in - bongo, zilch! Now they face only having a ~20% tax credit against non property earnings. The rent is treated and taxed like income. UC limits go, CB removed.
  3. The world has leant on the US to supply the currency by which trade and banking happens. The price of this facility is the dollar being used much more than its current trade or interest rates pay for. It would be a good lesson to both parties if the there was an explicit price.
  4. UK - and the US - cannot go bust - they have their own printing presses. They can trash the external value.
  5. The Western government, by trade, transfered a lot of inflation from late 90s til ~2015ish. This was used to hold wages down and IR down, or at least provide cover for those. Now CHina is exporting inflation. That transfer was a temporary shuffling. Its now all coming back, wage inflation, prices etc.
  6. Id add that the BTLers I knew well enough to ask/be told were operating around ~1k/m rent, 900/m mortgage payments. And that was before S24 kicked in fully.
  7. The only honest, direct thing that Fatty Fergus ever said was in 2008ish and something along lines of - If the banks had not lowered the mortgages rates below 3% we'd have been bust.
  8. FHL ar very different, tax n mortgage wise, to io btl. You need a specific FHL mortgage. Idiot io btl piled into FHL after s24. Fhl is about to get rinsed.
  9. She should sue someone. https://uk.linkedin.com/in/zoe-lunn-solicitor-apprentice I wonder what pronoun the builder of the shitbox uses?
  10. Youll never see hyper inflation in consumer goods because they are consumer goods - people will stop buying them. You will see the basics go up, just because thers a lot more demand now from China. Its interesting to track old UK inflation rates v base rates. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inflation-rate-cpi
  11. A bit. The UK has had massive inflation - cost of housing, cost of public services. They are just not measured.
  12. The West have had ~20 years of China exporting disinflation. Since ~2015ish China started to export inflation.
  13. The ERMs and whot not came to be in the late 80s, which was less than 10 years after sterling was freely floated. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_Controls_in_the_United_Kingdom The major EU countries had only removed all capital controls in the late 80s - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/13/business/france-to-end-controls-on-foreign-exchange.html They were all unaware/not noticing the size and liquidity of the global finance that had grown in the last 10 years, assuming that countries were still sovereign in terms of capital flows.
  14. Economic ******** with Chinese characteristics ... Mind you, they are very similar to the the HPI numbers out out by NW/Halifax ....
  15. Looking back, it all seems absoluting effing mad - erm, snakes etcetc. People concentrate too much in the UK, sterling, I portent to the UK but minor in the scheme of things. However the major upset was an step change in German inflation, which caused the bundesbank's to raise rates, blowing up the erm. There appears to be a step change in German inflation now. God knows how it'll pan out. Germans are totally unhedged in terms of inflation assets - cash savers, 80% rent, zilch equity exposure,
  16. Junk article whose 1st reference is - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf Commercial banks create CB liabiltiies out of the air, which are turned into money in the real economy and need paying back over time.
  17. ZIRP and QE did f-all at increasing UK economic growth - https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-growth-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ Probably the opposite, as the rise of assets prices have stunted economic activity Equally, I dont think rising IR will stop inflation. BoE - an the rest - are too far behind and too slow. IR are going to have to have a lot higher.
  18. You wont have a clue. All Chinese economic nubmers are either made up or a state secret. Its pointless trying to work out whats happening. Chinas no longer cheap to make stuff, exports are hammered as the West will no longer be gamed by China. At some point therer'll be another revolution and the CCP heads will end up on sticks.
  19. Always been an arms race. I remember people working in the office who didnt work, jus showign their face to the right people and pissing off doing 'stuff'
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