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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Black Wednesday was in 92. At that time, the Lawson boom was already well into clearing out. Black Wednesday turbo charge the cycle and provided a massive restart to the economy. Cons took all the pain for this. Labour elected 4 years later, https://www.statista.com/statistics/282841/debt-as-gdp-uk/ You can see that i nthe debt chart - debt peaking in 94ish, then falling as the growing economy and reduces spending. Lab then continue the last Cons spending plans for ~5 years. Then it all goes to shit within ~5 years.
  2. Years (25) ago, I used to spend alot of weekends out n about drinking in Bath and the other Bradford. They were pretty nice places and not too pricey. Then they started filling up with more n more old people. Amazing numbers poured into here n there - old hotel into flats, factories n mill coverted. The local population ni seems grossly out of kilter - old people from elsewhere, various younger families on bennies. I'd guess the falls are due to the grimreaper and kids hitting 18. There cant be many buyers in either place.
  3. Updated. Horrendous numbers - if you have to pay tax to support this horse. DM summary of ons report. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10091471/Number-babies-born-foreign-mothers-hit-record-high-year.html Nearly a third of babies born in England and Wales last year were to foreign mothers, the highest since records began four decades ago. Official figures released today showed up to 75 per cent of births were among women born outside of the UK in the most ethnically-diverse parts of England – the top nine of which were in London. Most of the foreign mothers were born in Pakistan and Romania – around one in 11 – or Poland – around one in 12, according to the Office for National Statistics. 20 years ago the only Poles I met were ex ww2 army. 15 years ago I rarely met Romanians. Next to death, birth is the most common expensive event in healthcare systems. About 10k in the UK. 2013 - 8 years ago. MPs Keith Vaz and Mark Reckless to count Romanian arrivals https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25445888 2014 https://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-01-01/keith-vaz-mp-greet-romanians-off-the-plane-at-luton/ Romanians landing at Luton Airport were greeted by Home Affairs Select Committee chairman Keith Vaz on the first day of new rules allowing the migrants to work in the UK. He said he saw no evidence of migrants who have "rushed out and bought tickets" because of the lifting of regulations. He said that most of the people he met already work in the UK and were "coming back after a holiday". But he also criticised the government for a "lack of robust estimates" of the number of Romanians and Bulgarians expected to arrive in the UK. 4 years later - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5714281/Fiancee-Romanian-migrant-greeted-Keith-Vaz-2014-haunted-death-100mph-car-crash.html
  4. IIRC there was only one instance of COns serving Lab a sh1t sandwich - Barber boom. 50 - (WW2 - > Lab) Atlee. 51 (Lab->Con) 64 (Con -> Lab) 70 (Lab->Con) Who rules .... 74 (Con->Lab sortof) Not Heath .... Or Labour. [Barbour boom). 79 Election (Lab -> Con) - UK was fked. 97 (Con -> Lab) - UK was booming, 80s boom had cleared, purses stuffed full of money. 2010 (Lab -> ConDem) - UK was fked. Only 3 Con->Lab transitions since WW2. Lab ahs passed the shitty stick to Cons more than the other way.
  5. Sorry. Just interest payments. Im assuming that al BTL is IO BTL which frankly, what is has been.
  6. In terms of currencies at the mo, its not needing to outrun a tiger, just run faster than the slowest person. World currencies at the moment is a beauty completion of munters.
  7. Its the Independent, itll be shit and wrong. With FIAT, Central bsnks create money. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/how-is-money-created However, the way the banks works, they charge IR on that rented money and destroy it when the debt is paid. What went very wrong in the UK is the banks held so little against bank ;endign that they could leverage their capital to insane levels. And products like IO mortgage need banning - they should not exist in the regulated banking sector. At all.
  8. No, pops wrong. You could leverage up on IO and deduct the mortgage interest against rent, leaving zilch tax to pay. The one I knew 'made' zilch, afetr costs - 1k/rent, 900/m rent, few deductions in - bongo, zilch! Now they face only having a ~20% tax credit against non property earnings. The rent is treated and taxed like income. UC limits go, CB removed.
  9. The world has leant on the US to supply the currency by which trade and banking happens. The price of this facility is the dollar being used much more than its current trade or interest rates pay for. It would be a good lesson to both parties if the there was an explicit price.
  10. UK - and the US - cannot go bust - they have their own printing presses. They can trash the external value.
  11. The Western government, by trade, transfered a lot of inflation from late 90s til ~2015ish. This was used to hold wages down and IR down, or at least provide cover for those. Now CHina is exporting inflation. That transfer was a temporary shuffling. Its now all coming back, wage inflation, prices etc.
  12. Id add that the BTLers I knew well enough to ask/be told were operating around ~1k/m rent, 900/m mortgage payments. And that was before S24 kicked in fully.
  13. The only honest, direct thing that Fatty Fergus ever said was in 2008ish and something along lines of - If the banks had not lowered the mortgages rates below 3% we'd have been bust.
  14. FHL ar very different, tax n mortgage wise, to io btl. You need a specific FHL mortgage. Idiot io btl piled into FHL after s24. Fhl is about to get rinsed.
  15. She should sue someone. https://uk.linkedin.com/in/zoe-lunn-solicitor-apprentice I wonder what pronoun the builder of the shitbox uses?
  16. Youll never see hyper inflation in consumer goods because they are consumer goods - people will stop buying them. You will see the basics go up, just because thers a lot more demand now from China. Its interesting to track old UK inflation rates v base rates. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inflation-rate-cpi
  17. A bit. The UK has had massive inflation - cost of housing, cost of public services. They are just not measured.
  18. The West have had ~20 years of China exporting disinflation. Since ~2015ish China started to export inflation.
  19. The ERMs and whot not came to be in the late 80s, which was less than 10 years after sterling was freely floated. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_Controls_in_the_United_Kingdom The major EU countries had only removed all capital controls in the late 80s - https://www.nytimes.com/1989/12/13/business/france-to-end-controls-on-foreign-exchange.html They were all unaware/not noticing the size and liquidity of the global finance that had grown in the last 10 years, assuming that countries were still sovereign in terms of capital flows.
  20. Economic ******** with Chinese characteristics ... Mind you, they are very similar to the the HPI numbers out out by NW/Halifax ....
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