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spyguy

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Posts posted by spyguy

  1. 2004 - Bought by portfolio builder.

    2006 eventually flogged to a eager LL, who wants to buy portfolio of the shelf - make £££££££

    Tenant hell. Flip at a profit 2 years later.

    2008 n all that. 12 long years of hell, finally throw towel in at ~40k loss.

    Some couple, probably down South, will have vowed never to talk about their IO BTL days.

     

     

     

     

  2. 57 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

    That is a weird sale history - why would anyone pay 66% more than 2 years before for a property that has gone up and down like that.

    Pick any of the houses - 

    Address: 147 Burbank Street,
    Hartlepool, TS24 7JW
    Type: Terrace
    Tenure: Freehold
    New build: No
    Estimated value: £31,500
    Links: Map icon Price map Wikipedia icon (Hartlepool)
    Transaction type: Standard price paid transaction

    Registered sales:

    Date Sold Price Paid Nominal
    change
    Real
    change
    18 Feb 2020 £26,500 -59.5% -70.9%
    11 Jan 2008 £65,500 11.0% 5.0%
    14 Jun 2006 £59,000 31.1% 23.8%
    24 Aug 2004 £45,000 150.0% 148.8%
    28 May 2004 £18,000 80.0% 66.0%
    16 Feb 2001 £10,000 -4.8% -5.3%
    31 Jan 2001 £10,500 n/a n/a
  3. 2 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

    Exactly...so denials at this point are very risky.

    No sure what Boris ahs said. Im never sure what he says anyhow.

    Matt 'Handy' Hancock has issued a straight denial for him + PM.

    Rishis has said No too.

    If the PM, Chancellor n Health secretary are not at a party during a Covid lockdown time then it was prob not an important Pol party meet up.

    Its just possible that this might have a been a bunch of journos, civil servant and various hangs on -

     The spokeswoman with a 'non job' who let slip No10’s Christmas party: How Carrie's ex-Guardian journalist friend Allegra Stratton was hired during Downing St war with Dominic Cummings - before string of gaffes ended her short reign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10287453/The-spokeswoman-non-job-exposed-No10-Christmas-party.html

    Its could be a take down of Carrie and her lefty mates. 

  4. 1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

    its all well and good denying your presence there...until someone produces a phot or video of you there that contains evidence of time and place. In this day and age they cant be sure this doesnt exist, so lying about attendance now is very risky.

    Its No10 Downing Street,. not a Wetherspoons.

    Therell be a list of who attended.

    Its not like you can just rock up with a bottle of cheap wine and get in, saying you know 'Johm'

  5. 6 minutes ago, 12345 said:

    Regardless of whether the PM was there or not;

    -  It's his own house, if he wasn't made aware it's a serious question about his authority

    - If he was made aware, it's a serious question about his leadership

    - Either way, he's put his name to it saying it didn't happen, so now he has to own it

    Its not his house.

    More UKGOV crash pad.

     

  6. On 07/12/2021 at 08:36, Pop321 said:

     

    Frugal highlights the HPI driver, spy guy gives others and this is an interesting thread with some great thoughts on the reward we get for work. 

    Different drivers but I left work almost 3 years ago despite receiving 20% awards prior to that (to make my salary comparable to some old timers at my level earning a lot more) and also a 20% one off bonus each year…..the value of my salary v’s the effort required wasn’t worth it. And that from someone who owned a house outright plus inflation at the time being low. The key driver was removal of the DB pension….it meant I was giving my time up for cash rather than the promise of a better retirement, and the cash wasn’t enough of an incentive  

    My friend is in a public sector job, rubbish pay for the risks involve so they are finishing the degree next year and will move on. But he knows he can moan about it or do something about it….the pension is good but not like it was, some career average deal that erodes the old benefit for a young starter so he will take his chances elsewhere with a 100% increase in salary elsewhere.

    Seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction and those with little choices on hourly rates in retail etc and won’t rely on benefits are the ones who will really suffer. They seem to be working daft shifts for little reward and difficult to know what to suggest to help them.?

     

    How much churn and an org survive?

    Sure, MaccyD - and other food vendors -  can work with a ~20%+ churn. MaccyD relies on large volumes and lowish skills.

    Ditto tescos - tills or warehouse.

    And the same for picking fruit n veg or chambermaiding - these are not skilled, no matterr what Rocco Forte thinks.

    However .. churn becomes a *massive* problem once you start moving up the margins and higher skills ladder.

    Im not exaggerating when I say 90% of orgs I deal with are grossly understaffed for their skilled teams. This was been the case for 20 years.

    Orgs are surviving by culling lower margin products and pushing dates out, and just not doing stuff, hoping something will happen.

     

    Theyve had a pass with 2008 and all that, followed by lower investment/demand after Brexit.

    UK business investment expected to rebound strongly in 2022

    Government ‘super-deduction’ forecast to bring forward spending but many economists predict rise will be shortlived

    https://www.ft.com/content/ae65d82f-db70-4763-9d96-65be6fc12ba1

    62371210-55c4-11ec-82bf-39da0a90e2df-sta

     

    4324e0e0-569c-11ec-8904-a1c8d2d10e65-sta

     

    Capital/debt is cheap.

    However, the skills required to use that capital are in very much short supply.

    Importing stuff from Chinas hasnt panned out - they are bent and expensive now.

    Outsourcing to India has just demonstrated why India is a poor country.

    30-50% of working age people are on some for of PT UC bennies, not looing to up their 24h.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  7. 6 minutes ago, miguel said:

    Finally Labour have come out with a rather cutting exocet:

     

    Millions of families took Government advice last Christmas and stayed at home - even if it meant being apart from loved ones. Meanwhile the Government threw parties which they lied about. Then they laughed about lying to you.

    Define 'Government'

    Boris and cabinet - people on record are saying they were not there - PM, healthsec + chancellor.

    SPADS/bag carriers - poss.

    Civil service - deffo.

     

  8. 8 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

    There’s a FOI request for the invite list already

    Good.

    This smells like a madeup story by the civil service and media .. about the civil service and the media.

    No10 is big.

    The spin is by saying 'No10' people are going to assume Boris and cabinet were there.

    That does not seem to be the case.

    Id doubt the PM  signs off on meetigns and dos. This is below stairs stuff.

     

     

  9. 13 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

    Great list, this one sticks out the most. I calculate everything like this. 

    The variety of marginal tax rates makes things ridiculous.

    *earning above min wage to around 40k if you rent with kids seems pointless, because of UC taper. So if feels like you need to be earning at least 60k to make it feel like you’re actually out of the trap, but then ….

    * 50-60k with kids is an utter joke thanks to the child benefit loss. No point here, so you want 80k to actually feel better off and then once you get to the next level …

    * … 100-125k is pants thanks to the loss of personal allowance, so if you’re gonna change roles when you’re earning 90k, you wanna go to at least 145k. 

    Obvs I’m being a little facetious describing these sums in derogatory terms, but marginal tax rates really make you think. Of course, once you realise you’re in one of those nasty bands, you can mitigate with salary sacrifice into pension - but only up to a point. You have your 40k, and no more unless you’re new to the game and have carry back. When you do a full Sal sac and still remain in those bands, the next payrise needs to be more and more significant. Maybe you’re lucky and have an EV scheme and a no cap cycle to work, but a Taycan doesn’t have free supercharging like my old Tesla and there’s only so many Pinarello Dogmas you can buy before it gets silly 😂🤦‍♀️

    These are the definition of first world problems, and I’m pretty disgusted with myself for thinking like this, but the effect of tax when combined with HPI is the horrible sensation it’s never enough. Which is a bit sick. 

    I wish management / HR would get off their lazy **** arses and use excel on one of the online What tax youll pay sites.

    Heres a very rough example of what  I went thru with some morons I had the misfortune to work with pre covid.

    Meeting. Much table hitting - Weve *got* to get a FT head in place, otherwise we'll lose this 2m contract. Me CEO, You pleb, Ungowah!

    Which was true.

    HR search kicks off. 3 months alter - f-all.

    spy, do you know anyone with these skills - large list of some mutally incompatible skills, which if someone had, theyd in the US not London.

    Thin the list out to the skills they need - basically mid career SW head, someone I knew had those skills and was open to a move. Contact passed on, which Im usually reluctant to do, for good reason.

    A few months later, its all gone to shit.

    Call from CEO - We offered him 50k more. And he turned us down!

    Simply, the guys options were to uproot his family to London - kids in good schools, wife earning 25k, nice house, nice town ~90minutes from London. etc etc - and move into a shit ex council flat in Peckham.

    Fck that.

    Or ... commute in.

    50k pay bump - thats good!

    Oh thats gross. After tax - ~30k take home.

    Hmm, still not to be sneezed at. An extra ~2k/m spends.

    Oh, but theres commuting now - thats ~13k/y costs. 

    OK, now down to 17k extra take home a month. OK, an extra ~1200/m. Not bad.

    Yeah but hes now facing moving from a ~30min stress less commute (walk or bike) and now looking at ~4h/day.

    Thats an extra 20h/week - almost 3 more days.

    Fck that.

    Not only are people very aware of extra tax - and the fckwittery of Brown high, complex taxes have not been revered by Cons, allowing ~70% of the UKPOP to sit around and do f-all whilst the other 30% slave to pay for it - they are also well aware of commuting time and costs.

    If you want someone to work in London then you pay their their housing costs.

    HPI is basically differed wage inflation.

    Or HPI is not sustainable.

     

     

     

     

     

  10. 1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

    MMR came in in 2014. What has happened to HPI since then despite a pandemic and Brexit? Yes transactions are through the floor but they have been since 2009 and still no sign of a crash.

    5% mortgages are back too after an early pandemic disappearance. Sorry i'm not seeing and material impact of increased regulation on house prices.

    Youre looking at the wrong number - 

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

    The prices are down to QE/ZIRP.

     

  11. 4 minutes ago, Patfig said:

    So if prices rocketing and 20% becomes the new deposit "norm" where do buyers get this extra deposit cash from?

     

    Seems to me like it wont work.

    Prices arent rocketing - thats was a SD holiday/nuts covid cash short term idiocy.

    Banks are lending less, having to [put more capital into loans (pre 2008 banks had less than 2% of capital held against a loan. This has been cranked up massively).

    Large deposits are not a new thing. They existed when houses were a lot more sane, in terms of HPE ratios.

    The leverage is coming out of UK housing, slowly but surely.

     

     

  12. 10 hours ago, Pebbles said:

    What a surprise. Yet there are still those who after decades of this believe the BoE are actively encouraging HPI. I said MMR was toothless and would be scaled back and basel 3 was but window dressing and it seems that was right. Expect HPI +++.

    Absolutely not.

    Mmr is UK only and has seriously curtailed predatory lending a la 2000 to 2014.

    Have a look at UK mortgage lending figures if you dont believe me.

    Basel3 is international and massive, drawing a line under behaviour leading  up to 2008.

    Start of a process where mortgage lending against housing deleverages.

    20% deposit is the new 5% down mortgage.

    Banks are going to have to hold more n more capital against a mortgage.

  13. Just to add some detail this banks  housing, lending to the moon argument

    Heres Lexs nice chart on Barclays revenues -

    (Links to ft charts get thru paywall)

    Barclays: bullish market trends but no premium valuation

    Investors have doubts about how long winning streak in investment banking will last

    https://www.ft.com/content/31bb45b8-b2dc-43fd-8c94-e075242edcdd

    4074eb90-328b-11ec-9eef-0d5ab55654d3-sta

    45d4f530-328b-11ec-a538-9192fbd83f3f-sta

    The point I'm making is that consumer revenue is so heavily regulated that it makes fall money for a bank.

    Banks are not making much from mortgages. Sure, a low Ltv and 20%+ deposit makes it a low risk activity - but its low margins too.

    You can see why plain old retail banks such as Nationwide are panicking- they are not making any money. Their business model is fked.

    Mortgages are moving away from being a mass market product.

     

     

     

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  14. Most of those affected were single mothers working part-time in low-paid jobs, who relied on universal credit to supplement rent payments, she said. Many of them had been forced to use food banks, and some had been made homeless as a result of their rent arrears. Claimants were often notified by text message that their benefits had been stopped, and were not given information about how to appeal.

  15. MP raises concern over Bulgarian nationals’ UK benefit suspensions

    Kate Osamor raises concern that Bulgarians are being unfairly targeted for benefit fraud investigation

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/06/mp-raises-concern-over-bulgarian-nationals-uk-benefit-suspensions

    Concern about the treatment of many Bulgarian and some Polish universal credit claimants has also been raised by a charity supporting EU nationals and an estate agency renting to Bulgarian tenants in London.

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