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spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. The ~15m people the UK imported since 2000 to 'do work that the natives wont do' (c) some moron. Have, in them main, moved onto the same benefits that the natives did when the ~5m migrants arrived. The UK needs massive benefit and migration reform, first one being removing all access of migrants to benefits d and free at use public services i.e. NHS and schooling. Make them pay for NHS and schooling @7/kid up front. They can claim the cost back against taxes paid the next tax year.
  2. Parents house - nice big one that costs 350k now, cos t them 23x my Dads factory wages. Mortgage finance was hard to get, parents requiring paternal GPs to buy the house for them, then pay them back. That didnt work out, as my Nan spent the next 20 odd years telling me. In ye olde days, high inflation meant high wage inflation, so the debt was soon inflated away to f-all - pain was gone in 5 years. However, at the current LTE rates, high inflation will be very painful.
  3. Yeah, theres been a rapid change. Its not just one thing. The two main things thats made peoples job sh1t since the early 90s are - 1) Witless fkwittery management, all originating from Jack Welch GE magic fraud machine. Everything thats sh1t has originated from that fkwit - OTT management payment, financial engineering, made up metrics like rank n rate. Look at GE share price and the allegations of mass fraud. The difference between businesses that followed some sort of GE like practise (most o them) and those that ran a proper business (Google,e MS, most tech) are so vast. The former are basically shells of not bust. 2) China china china. From the early 90s to about 2016, China was cheap and was taking more n more of the West product pie. This is something Pols and business lapped up - cheaper inputs, ability to beat wages. Imported Chinese deflation was the reason the West could have low IRs for so long. No more. China or rather the pearl river delta, cost more than doing stuff in the UK. The shortcomings of doing vast trade with a bent Marxist loon state is now coming home to Pols. China is now exporting inflation, as it competes for major resources. The CB easy ride is over. 3) Not keeping up with recruiting. Since ~2000, most private sector orgs have pushed back recruiting and replacing. People leaving were handled by divvying up the work ad pushing delivery times out. More n more were being done by less n less. Having ~15m migrants enter the UK since 2000 allowed business to throw more n more less skilled staff at work ad pretend they were addressing it. We now find ourself in the situation where the fresh faced manager or trainee of the late 90s is now well into their 50s. That would be bad enough in itself however, after lockdown a lot of people are saying - Fkit, Im going PT or retiring early. SO, all of a sudden, orgs find themselves with ~19 years worth of retirement in 2 years. And theres no to replace the people who are going. 4) Gordon Browns job miracle. Tax credits, now UC, but less so. Turning 1 FT job into ~3 PT each with a ~1500/m tax payer. This should gave been ended n 2010. Simply bumping up the qualifying hours by 2/h a year for 10 years would have done it. See tax credit sad face thread. AS it stands, a lot of the 'new' entrants to the workforce are women in their 40s/50s, none of which have anything more than a handful of years of work, all of which have very inflated ideas of their earning ability. They all end up doing 60h/w of NMW work, just to stand still from their TC days. IN terms of working beyond retirement, esp women, Id point you to the NI contributions required for a pension. These havent changed, bar the long overdue equalisation of pension age and tweaking of pension age, both of which should have happened back in the 90s. NI/state pension has always been the last remanent of the original and much better welfare state - By the outbreak of war, Beveridge found himself working in Whitehall where he was commissioned to lead an inquiry into social services. His vision was to battle against what he called the five giants; idleness, ignorance, disease, squalor and want. Anyhow you need 35 NI contributions to get the full state pension. Less than 10 and you get fkall. It may surprise you, but only 40% of people hitting SRA in 2022 have achieved that. So, for a cohort who were likely to start working 16, only 40% have managed 35 years working out of 50 (66-16). Thats basically only working 7 out of 10 days, Or having a 15 year break. Bear in min that woman (CB claimants) get a NI credit whilst claiming CB).
  4. Id put that claim in a bit of context - https://www.health.org.uk/chart/chart-large-drop-in-the-number-of-new-nurses-coming-from-the-eu-to-work-in-the-uk After the EU debt crisis, nurses -and other EU people - piled into the UK, to escape the austerity (and I mean proper brutal austerity cuts) in Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy.
  5. Lets take Mr - or Ms - London Commuter. 7% pay increase. Whoppee!!!!!! However .... of that 7k more, ~2800 goes to UKGOV. Than they face a 10% increase in train fairs - so another 1000/1500. Leaving all of ~2k.
  6. Whats described is business risk. LLing is a business. The sort of happy path, blue skies, easy sailing that the IO BTL LL expect is unlikely, at least every time.
  7. You can buy a weeks food for 4 people with a days work at NMW.
  8. Next? UK 'win' Eurovision. Ukraine would have won with Uke equivalent of Keith Harris n Orville. France n Germany come bottom. Massive massive snub to EU as was, before Ukraine.
  9. Wrong answer to the wrong question. If you are 16-65 and not in an iron lung tgen you need to be working at least 38h/w. If you are broke then you need a 2nd job or overtime. To answer the question - porridge. That's 1 meal out of 3, for 30p/h.
  10. 600k, 25y mortgage - @ 3% - £2,845 @ 6% - £3,866 @ 9% - £5,035
  11. One to watch - https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics Latest findings The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans was £1,613.4 billion at the end of 2021 Q4, 4.7% higher than a year earlier. The value of gross mortgage advances in 2021 Q4 was £70.2 billion, 8.4% lower than in 2020 Q4, and the lowest level since 2020 Q3. The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) in 2021 Q4 was 2.0% less than the previous quarter at £77.3 billion, and 11.9% less than the recent peak of £87.7 billion a year earlier. The covid boost was already in rapid reverse by the end of 2021. Sine Q42, the CBs have finally admitted theyved fked up. A lot. And are looking at putting some serious rate increases. Will!'s lins shows how banks are running away from lending - risk is very much off. Forget the EA and RM highest asking prices ********. Only a tiny number of people will be getting their mortgage approved. Im willing to bet big money that the number of mortgage sales Q2 22 will be the lowest in history.
  12. A large part of the his false confidence is the belief - and it is just a bele9f - that by giving IR policy to central banks, everything is fixed. NO more booms n bust, careful tweaks to the base rates, slow and steady as she goes .... Of course the reality, especially in the UK where ~80% of the banking sector blew up within 10 years of BoE independence shows a different outcome. IMHO prices have been kept low by China joining the WTO and exporting deflation. Now China is exporting inflation. Id buckle up tight.
  13. Thats just taking money from tax payers and giving it to someone else. Doesnt help the overall cost of living. BoE needs to move to put a good 1% chunk between base rates and the FED. Having your currency fall against the $ is brutal these days. Fall goes straight onto your inflation figures..
  14. Yield or interest? Interest is mainly a cash thing. Gov n company Bonds, money market funds etc give a higher yield than cash with only a slightly higher risk - in normal times
  15. Premium bonds worked if you were a high rate tax payer, had a large dollop (20k+) were looking for a near cash equivalent and weren't called Jonah.
  16. Salary is N/A Its to demonstrate that interest rates going from 3% -> 6% dont double the mortgage repayments. Youve got capital repayment too, which in the early years account for ~40% of the mortgage payments.
  17. 25y 200k mortgage @ 3% = £948 25y 200k mortgage at 6% = £1,289
  18. No, they stress test assuming a mortgage rate of 6% and make sure that doesnt take more than 30% of your take home.
  19. The 30 or 40 year average gives you a rough figure to work with.
  20. There is. Ive spent ~10 years (well, since home.co.uk was created) having a casual search, looking for new listings in 2 weeks. Its been v slow for ~10 years. Stuff being listed, stuff being unlisted. A few places even selling. No real urgency. Now everyone has seem to have decided that they need to clear property positions, fast. Sadly, the number of local, under 50 'proceed-able buyers', is fkall. The owner occupier market has lost a generation of buyers - and equity buildup - to IO BTL. Every house- 1, 2, 4 bedroom - is a starter home now. .
  21. Too narrow. MMR is pretty good. And pretty thorough. Ive been thru it with First Direct ~6 years ago. I also got chatting with the mortgage assessor on it. They want bank statements for at least 6 months and your P60 (if you are self employed then they have a more expensive, intrusive process). They you declare all existing debt and regular outgoings - school fees, car loans, maintenance whatever. So they take your income, take your outgoings out, allowing for ctax and utilities. and whats left theyll lend you under 4x. Banks can lend more than 4x. Most dont, for good reason. The IR stress test is just putting 3% on the current SVR and checking the mortgage doesnt take more than ~30% of your take home. IR stress appears to have been designed to take into account the exceptionally low base rates. The FCA have worked on the assumption that SVR will return to their long term average sometime in the mortgage term.
  22. S21 is a request to leave. The LL has to go to court to enforce a S21 notice. Talking to a LA housing bod, the majority of S21 notices he sees are invalid - filled in incorrectly, served wrong, mistakes. The LL serves the S21, waits 2 months, then goes to court. Case heard ~12 months later then immediately thrown out due to S21 errors. Thats almost 18 months are no progress.
  23. About??? Ive speny the last few years, causally doing 'listed in the last 14 days' search. I dont keep records, so youll have to accept this as anecdotal, but theres about 4x more listings. It does appear that too many have kept housing positions they cannot afford for too long.
  24. Bland nailed the outcome of S24 what, ~7 years ago Since then its got only worse for LL, who clung to their position and borrowed more. The LL and banks are idiots and need to go under.
  25. The only reason IO BTL exist - other than idiot banks and idiot LLs - is that ARLA lobbied banks in the late 90s, claiming that ASR laws ensure that the banks could repo a house in a short (couple of months) and legally certain route- serve eviction notice, get it served, house back. The more legal recourse the tenant has, and the longer it takes, then the less likely a bank will lend, at least at the volumes and IR that IO BTL have been able to borrow at. LL mortgage will go back to what they were- specialist finance from finance cos, with 50% deposit. commercial terms- repayment 10years and a high IR. The big banks gave up on new IO BTL years ago, at least in volume. Its been left to the idiot seller banks who cannot afford this process. These banks are not important. They will go to the wall.
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