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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. You might be remembering it wrong. Up til the late 80s, our LA required people to have a local connection and be working to qualify for council housing. Single parents were discouraged from/banned from houses. Sometime in the late 80s, access to council housing - and benefits in general - became turbo charge to helping/more points to the dysfunctional rather than the local/working/functional. In my case, it means the last ~30 years has seen working local have to move and be replaced by scum from outside the area. The council estates are now a mix of old, nice. local couples and various younger scum families from outside.
  2. Some people can get these mortgages. I didnt say nobody could get these mortgages - theres some where I have doubts if any have been sold/exist, see Habitro 40y fixed. I know the FSA do update on what people are borrowing at. Theres not a lot at the low low LTV and low rates.
  3. The more money banks can make, the more options you have to borrow. Large orgs cannot borrow directly from CB; only regulated banks can. Larger orgs might get slightly lower rates. Doubtful if they benefit hugely from that. If the accounting rules are changed to stop orgs leveraging up like loons and writing off against tax then that might be better.
  4. Thats what I mean by create - they draw own loans from the CB. Then they have to pay those loan back with interest. Money is created (loans) than destroyed (interest, repayment).
  5. They allocate £x for that rate. When it's gone they stop and rethink. Mortgage funding is very finite.
  6. I'd be deliriously if social housing was plentiful, cheap, basic accommodation, open to all. Its isnt.
  7. It's very difficult to get a mortgage. In fact, its been the hardest ever been - 20% min. At London HPE ratios of 15x people are having to stump up a deposit, which, 20 years ago, would have bought a house.
  8. No. V short slip, from SD holiday. Falling back to multi decade lows. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans
  9. Mortgage costs will rise. Housing costs will fall. 2 months ago people were doubting thats raise in 2022. The biggy isnt rate rises, its removal of term funding.
  10. German voter trumps German business. Besides, few Italians, Greek or Portuguese buy high end German motors.
  11. They will. The one to follow is tge ECB. The most important country, and most sensitive to price increases, is Germany. Prices are rising at 5%. Mental. Higher inflation than reunification.
  12. Looking at the local LR data, that's lot of a money. If the LA etc were doing this properly youd expect them to get a much better price - well under 150k. As it stands, they seem to have paid top dollar yo get into an unusual scheme that most have cost a fortune, legally, and looks like it's going to very expensive to operate. Social housing needs a large number if changes. One, it needs to come with a hurdle - local connection and being employment. It also needs actively managing - remove people sho longer qualify, the rents to local earnings, etc etc. Just building more n more social housing and letting the LHA dish it out is dumb.
  13. I keep saying this as it's a reality. I constantly hear of people struggling to get mortgages. Even with a 40% deposit the likes of HSBC, who offer the most consistent cheap deals, are very sniffy about who they lend to. Slight blot on your credit and its- No.
  14. You have to be careful about headline rates Lenders only have very finite funds for super low offers. I'd live to see the banks list number of mortgages at what rate.
  15. The BoE has no control over the price of money. US Fed doesnt care about BoE. Fed raises then BoE has to follow.
  16. Yes. Tge more people you have in a building, the more likely it'll catch fire. A house split into HMOs are normally stuffed full of alchis, nodding off with the oven on.
  17. Yeah, sounds about right for the some of the tiny places with no sunlight in the mid 90s. My and my GF at the time were looking to get away from M4 corridor. And were looking for anywhere that was not some awful commuter town and that had some level of social life - or just something to do other than sit in traffic. We looked at Bath, which, outside of the centre, is very nice and fun and funky, with the idea that shed easily get a job (teacher) and Id do London, or god help me, Swindon. In the end we moved to West London for a bit, before splitting. Car problems - parking, using, driving anywhere, in Bath was an issue. Bath appears to have gone uber UK - population is split between old OAPS in own houses. And 'poor benefit families. And lots of students. I dont think either group will last or is healthy for a town.
  18. I notice people are starting to move on from 'not that mant migrants' as the number are so large and obvious now, to even to the dumbest. UK inwork subs are so high and the public services services so expensive that any increase in low skilled migrant will cost a fortune. Who cares? Well, are you not seeing the housign crisis? Theres 15m-20m migrants in the UK since 2000. This is the cause of pressure on housing stock, public services UK budget.
  19. Black Wednesday was in 92. At that time, the Lawson boom was already well into clearing out. Black Wednesday turbo charge the cycle and provided a massive restart to the economy. Cons took all the pain for this. Labour elected 4 years later, https://www.statista.com/statistics/282841/debt-as-gdp-uk/ You can see that i nthe debt chart - debt peaking in 94ish, then falling as the growing economy and reduces spending. Lab then continue the last Cons spending plans for ~5 years. Then it all goes to shit within ~5 years.
  20. Years (25) ago, I used to spend alot of weekends out n about drinking in Bath and the other Bradford. They were pretty nice places and not too pricey. Then they started filling up with more n more old people. Amazing numbers poured into here n there - old hotel into flats, factories n mill coverted. The local population ni seems grossly out of kilter - old people from elsewhere, various younger families on bennies. I'd guess the falls are due to the grimreaper and kids hitting 18. There cant be many buyers in either place.
  21. Updated. Horrendous numbers - if you have to pay tax to support this horse. DM summary of ons report. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10091471/Number-babies-born-foreign-mothers-hit-record-high-year.html Nearly a third of babies born in England and Wales last year were to foreign mothers, the highest since records began four decades ago. Official figures released today showed up to 75 per cent of births were among women born outside of the UK in the most ethnically-diverse parts of England – the top nine of which were in London. Most of the foreign mothers were born in Pakistan and Romania – around one in 11 – or Poland – around one in 12, according to the Office for National Statistics. 20 years ago the only Poles I met were ex ww2 army. 15 years ago I rarely met Romanians. Next to death, birth is the most common expensive event in healthcare systems. About 10k in the UK. 2013 - 8 years ago. MPs Keith Vaz and Mark Reckless to count Romanian arrivals https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25445888 2014 https://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-01-01/keith-vaz-mp-greet-romanians-off-the-plane-at-luton/ Romanians landing at Luton Airport were greeted by Home Affairs Select Committee chairman Keith Vaz on the first day of new rules allowing the migrants to work in the UK. He said he saw no evidence of migrants who have "rushed out and bought tickets" because of the lifting of regulations. He said that most of the people he met already work in the UK and were "coming back after a holiday". But he also criticised the government for a "lack of robust estimates" of the number of Romanians and Bulgarians expected to arrive in the UK. 4 years later - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5714281/Fiancee-Romanian-migrant-greeted-Keith-Vaz-2014-haunted-death-100mph-car-crash.html
  22. IIRC there was only one instance of COns serving Lab a sh1t sandwich - Barber boom. 50 - (WW2 - > Lab) Atlee. 51 (Lab->Con) 64 (Con -> Lab) 70 (Lab->Con) Who rules .... 74 (Con->Lab sortof) Not Heath .... Or Labour. [Barbour boom). 79 Election (Lab -> Con) - UK was fked. 97 (Con -> Lab) - UK was booming, 80s boom had cleared, purses stuffed full of money. 2010 (Lab -> ConDem) - UK was fked. Only 3 Con->Lab transitions since WW2. Lab ahs passed the shitty stick to Cons more than the other way.
  23. Sorry. Just interest payments. Im assuming that al BTL is IO BTL which frankly, what is has been.
  24. In terms of currencies at the mo, its not needing to outrun a tiger, just run faster than the slowest person. World currencies at the moment is a beauty completion of munters.
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