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House Price Crash Forum

spyguy

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Everything posted by spyguy

  1. Cc fraud now costs the bank a lot of money. And that's just the detecting if it. Cc are no longer the way to ££££££ for banks.
  2. Any transaction over 15k will need a real person to ok it. Dont transfer large sums on Friday pm.
  3. UK banks are still contracting, both in number of employees, balance sheet and activity. In a few years - less than 10- you can expect to pay £5/m to have a bank account. Free banking, of limited service levels, will be available at the post office.
  4. Because even flats in London are outside of must ftbers budget. Flat sales in Londin has been driven by HTB.
  5. London has been falling for at least 5 years. Anyone selling anything bought since 2016 is looking at a loss. And that was before Covid, which, going by lack of commuters, is going to hammer London.
  6. I'd guess the bulk of flat buyers have not sold, yet. Most if these will be htb, so are stuck for at least 5 years.
  7. Buy n renovate a new build flat?? Buy n renovate a run down 100 year cottage, yep.
  8. Well according to Gladys, who was told by an Ea .... everything is selling for £££££££ feofr they are listed ..... If only there was somewhere where you could look at local house sales and have nice graphs ... Oh there is - https://www.home.co.uk/#tab-prices-and-rents What Ive seen has been some over exuberance. Theres deffo been a spike in highly priced detached houses selling - I can see a massive spike. If you were to buy an expensive detached house than the SD would have reallyput a rocket up your ****. However, now the SD is over and IRs look like rising, a lot, I can see the my local market going back to a much more depressed version of what its been since 2008 - f-all selling. Shortly, you are going to see probates become a massive problem. Before covid SD and all that, each if one - countem - detached house sold, then that was a good month.
  9. I mean that there are a large number of tons where home ownership is so contracted in the (well) over 55s that probate will drive prices. Seriously, io btl has destroyed equity for todays under 45s. Theres no Money for the over 70s to transact and trade down.
  10. Well, hes probably reasonably clued up as a social geographer- hes a ptof at oxford. I think the UK is post mortgage now. Prices are too high, demographics are too far gone in some places. UK mass mortgage has been desd since 2008. A social geographer is in a better position to observe the probate hell thats going to drive housing in a lot of places.
  11. You posted dickpics to Krusty *and* the gay one?
  12. Well if shelter was a commodity it would be a lot cheaper and more abundant.... Housing is an asset, you cannot get around that. Its also grossly gamed - UK has plenty of land. Just make people pay for their own housing and youll get a better market. Where you may have a point is the gross mispricing of IO BTL mortgages. These are so obviously shor term commercial bridging laons and just dont get the banks whos sold them. IO BTL loans are sold way too cheap for the risk involved. What needs to happen is for banks to price their loan correctly. Or, better, BoE to remove support for IO loans. Mae the banks raise 100%^ of the capital.
  13. Stronger UK activity raises chances of Bank of England rate hike PMI figures hit 3-month high while input cost inflation and output prices rise at fastest pace since 1998 https://www.ft.com/content/f43f6227-4a27-4c8c-9bf3-95623f9ca89a Economic activity in the UK regained momentum in October and cost pressure reached a record high supporting the case for a rise in interest rates, according to a closely watched survey. Higher wages, rising fuel, transport and energy bills combined with worsening supply shortages resulted in both input cost inflation and output prices rising at their fastest pace since the index began in 1998, according to the IHS Markit index.
  14. No it wont. The relatively small number of people whove borrowed too much will be in shit. That it.
  15. Ive no doubt if you sat the typical Co Durham IO BTL and put the numbers in a nice formatted spreadsheet then theyd blow there brains out.
  16. If you got an IO BTL: before ~2004ish. Majority of IO BTL were sold post 2006ish. I cant comment on Brighton flats. I dont follow Brighton. The places I do follow are various Northern towns. Looking at the sales data, I cant see any IO BTLer whove come out without a very large loss. IIRC the bulk of IO BTL were in places like boro rather than Brighton
  17. How many oversea property have been bought by Chinese citizens, legally according to Chinese law - zilch. Up til ~2008ish, China was pursuing a mental mercantilist policy, aggressively - and illegally - exporting its labour. 2008 and it switched to creating internal demand, mainly around domestic property and vast civil engineering projects - or dubious quality. This CE was continue with Be;t n road. Concrete, in its various forms, now makes up a significant part of Chinas compnay./demand.
  18. S24 kills IO BTL. Its that simple. That 12k/m rent is going to be taxed at 30% or 40%
  19. 0.5% by Dec. 1% by March. And that would be slow, looking at the projections
  20. Hard to know which thread to post in. This one will do, being most recent. Watching Martin Lewis on itv+1. Given market view of interest projections - 0.25% Niv, 0.75%Feb Even that seems vastly out if date after just reading this - BoE chief economist warns UK inflation likely to hit 5% Huw Pill says bank will have ‘live’ decision on interest rates at November meeting https://www.ft.com/content/bce7b1c5-0272-480f-8630-85c477e7d69c Way way way behind. 0.5% in Nov. 1% in Dec would be a better bet.
  21. Before 2008 and I'd have agreed. 13 years on from 2008 and regional Southern towns are down on their arses. Not public spend but the loss of finsec jobs, which dominated regional Southern towns inv. Brighton.
  22. It paid off in London/SE. The large number who bought btl in the North are down, massively. Co Durham, boro etc - you are looking at 40k loss per house. God knows what voids andor maintenance.
  23. Doesnt. Even back in the mid 00s the only way BTL worked was by using IO mortgages. The yield was just not doable with a repayment mortgage. My biggest gripe about IO BTL is that is the loans have been grossly misprice. An IO BTL mortgage is nothing than a commercial bridging loan, which are about 2%/month.
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