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House Price Crash Forum


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About objective

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  1. On the contrary, he did state what he'd do... include HPI in the CPI index, convert new build flats to family homes and allow councils to raise money to build property. He said he had no quick fix and that these policies would have an effect over time.
  2. That's the best thing they could do. Everytime they interfere they just make things worse.
  3. My point was that Ken Clarke held down interest rates artificially low in the run-up to the election, as evidenced by the need to put them up just days after the election, then five times after that by the BOE. Any politician setting interest rates is an extremely bad idea. An unelected independent committee setting interest rates is better but still not a good idea. Interest rates should be set by the market.
  4. Yes, my memory is a little hazy but it's coming back now. The chancellor Ken Clarke cut interest rates from Feb 95 to Jun 96, then held them down in the months leading up to the election on May 1 1997 when they should have been put up, hence stoking a mini-boom, he clashed during that time with Eddie George the Governor of the BOE who thought interest rates should have been increased to contain inflation. I remember Labour put up the interest rate within days of coming into power in May 97, and then they were raised 5 more times over the next 13 months.
  5. Bank of Ireland, it couldn't happen to a better company. I warned their management years ago not to up their LTV deals, but did they listen? Did they heck.
  6. I remember he slashed interest rates for political gain in the months leading up to the 97 General Election. Sorry, but I trust him just about as far as I could throw him. He does talk some sense though, more than can be said for Broon and "We have a clear view" Darling.
  7. It seems that Banco Santander has more than 3 billion euros of exposure to the Madoff hedge fund fraud! Is this the reason for the letter?
  8. Sterling may not have been a major play but the carry trade has been behind a lot of the run-up, since 2000, in commodities, equities and property.
  9. I'll make an attempt to answer: 1) If any, not much of it. Higher currency volatility is now making it a risky move. If the interest rate differential is 5% but you get currency swings of 10% then the risk is high. 2) Yes, I believe it starting to unwind. 3) It is going to unwind, the trigger is deflation. Hedge funds will divest from assets. Yen will be repatriated. 4) The credit crunch is really about the reduction of credit, due to the reversal of an artificial boom created by hyper-inflation of credit in economies, in part funded by the ZIRP of Japan. The credit crunch means that the carry trade will inevitably unwind. 5) It exists and will do until it's fully unwound. 6) There will be huge deflation in all assets, including gold, as they have all been hyper inflated. Although gold should bounce back first. 7) If you lose less money than everyone else, then in a few years, yes! All in my honest opinion only, DYOR. I hold large cash positions in the YEN and CHF.
  10. Try FXY on the NYSE. No advice given. DYOR etc.
  11. Why don't we all just organise a run on the banks? Withdraw all our cash. This will bring down the house of cards.
  12. Hasn't it kept the economy going after the dot.com bubble? I just worry what the next bubble will be to keep the show on the road.
  13. Independent experts predict: "UP TO" i.e. the maximum predicted increase. I expect their research concludes something nearer to the mark of: -10% to 30% Which gets reported as an increase of "up to 30%"
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