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House Price Crash Forum


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About jaay2

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  1. great - thanks - unbelievable how many are putting prices UP after failing to sell for a couple of months... not sure how reliable the dates are as pal of mine has had his place listed for a couple couple of weeks (on RM) and "initial entry" appears as 23/6
  2. do you think foxt ln could do ok in a more pronounced sell off on the back of an increase in transactions? (albeit with smaller comms on lower prices) - my worry is that, in the absence of a major shock forcing through sales, the market just seizes up a la 2009 and london sees only moderate falls - in which case short might work out - i am seeing a lot more coming on in various parts of london - i don't know whether these might end up being taken off again as an apparent change in sentiment gathers pace
  3. i have (under duress c. 4 years ago) - the question is do i go large (?) i am simply stating my concern - i could just ignore it, sell up and hope for the best...
  4. i was also of the view that long term prices must return to what people can afford (or at least borrow) - however as someone who wants to see big falls i am concerned that, having s seen a whole 'new' category of market participant join/increase their presence in the last c. 10 years or so (i.e. property investors of varying types from institutional players such as sovereign funds/pension funds/hedge funds etc. to the many amateurs landlords), it kind of makes sense to me that prices should have increased as a result and will stay high/increase so long as this support remains in place/builds (a permanently higher plateau if you like)... I appreciate that this is a somewhat simplistic analysis but question whether it really matters if 'people' cannot afford to buy so long as someone somewhere is able to do so - i don't see this as a reason to get speculating but believe that it may prevent the extreme falls that would be required to enable an established middle class professional such as myself to buy the kind of house that i deserve (I truth I am only half joking) - of course this money can come and go but would reckon that a fair bit of this cash is in it for the long term as property is widely viewed as a fully legit asset class (versus for e.g. speculative short term institutional investment in the commodities market which can really play havoc/exaggerate moves) - maybe the trend in increasing home ownership will reverse and ownership will reside in the hands of fewer individuals with multiple interests - perhaps this is just how it is going to be for us over coming years (by the way this business with hedge funds in the US buying up foreclosed properties is pretty filthy)...
  5. A quick read of the register of interests for my local councillors tells a similar story (I was initially looking into a number of suspect planning applications and one thing led to another...) - it would seem that the MAJORITY have beneficial interests in multiple properties - some have upwards of 10, excluding any investments via companies (which I didn't bother to check out) – I find it hard enough to keep on top of the maintenance for 1 house (which I live in) - I’m surprised they have any time left for “councilling”
  6. you seem pretty aggressive - just out of interest, do you earn £100k? i confess that i felt that i had 'made it' at £100k in London it really depends what you you want to do with the money - £2k on mortgage and bills etc leaves you £3k to spend on whatever nonsense you want is pretty relaxing
  7. ironic thatcher nostalgia instagram party in brixton village - **** off
  8. jaay2

    London - Wtf

    I’ve been visiting this website on and off since early 06 and fancy a rant – I think it’s sometimes good to write your thoughts down and try and form a coherent view/asses your mental health Although I take an unhealthy interest but don’t really have enough spare capacity in my brain to properly think things through - I am far from being an expert so welcome the finding of flaws in some of my thought from those who have devoted their lives to the cause I was and remain strategically bearish on the UK as a whole I did however by myself a flat on the dip in 09 for 200k [because I liked it] - at the time my bank was willing to lend up to c. 400k or something equally ridiclous but I was hoping that [in a dream scenario] my 200k flat would fall 50% to 100k and I could pick up the 400k house at 200k Of course this hasn't happened and I’m starting to lose faith! - I’ve never had full conviction [see purchase in 09 which was about as far towards shorting the market as I was willing to go] and really struggle to get my head around London, namely: - Top down pressure (i.e. rich from China/Arabia/Eurozone/wherever) buying in west > forcing bankers/lawyers etc to buy in north > poor people (on less than £100k p/a) then pushed out east - I generalise but you get the idea – essentially there are always rich people in some part of the world that seem to want a bit of prime London. - Immigration at the lower end cannot be ignored in London – I like it very much (I genuinely ‘embrace’/’celebrate’ the ‘vibrant neighbourhoods’ that have been created!)- I even like the fact that there are some areas that have no diversity and are comprised entirely of one single (non UK white British) ‘community’ – I don’t want to live there though and this is me being selfish – if I hadn’t have been lucky enough to go to uni/get a good job etc and were directly competing with these people I would no doubt take a different view ) – immigrants are of course free to go at any time and would no doubt do so if things really take a turn for the worse (see Poles vs Ireland) but for the time being they are all helping to keep the btl guys in business - Indeed anecdotal evidence from acquaintances with btls are that the spreads are very good (temptingly so even when factoring in higher rates) > significantly higher rates is another story but I really don’t think that we can assume that there is going to be a return to ‘normality’ re rates anytime soon - it’s amazing what can happen look at Japan (but I wouldn’t recommend trying to understand it!) - Genuine demand (i.e. backed by credit) from owner occupiers to be is still there from what I can gather (at least where I am) – certainly there is more general awareness re the potential for a drawdown although this still seems to be outweighed by the higher prices forever story that many have followed for the entirety of their adult lives – I will still go and have a look at houses (group viewings still happening) and find myself up against panicked middle class frothing at the mouths to borrow massive multiples to buy what is essentially a **** house built for peasants 100 years ago – they will pay whatever they can - I believe that this will only stop when/if the means to borrow are taken away from them as seemed to start to happen in 08/09... Other anecdotal evidence causes further confusion: - Friend A is in his early 30s but much wiser than me (and a very successful investor outside of property) - having been in a position to buy/stayed out of the market for the best part of a decade (on the view that a crash was coming) he has capitulated and bought a flat (in a very nice area) for 1m+ - Friend B of a similar age but very disinterested in markets/economics – she geared up massively at the same time as I bought and paid 350 for a flat in north - has had several offers for 700 (really!) but is holding out for the 750 valuation - illustrates the benefit of not thinking too hard - friend A spends all day everyday thinking about markets/trends and has traded the London market appallingly whilst friend B has the option clear a cool 350k tax free profit on 4 years 'work'! I’ve done ok since 06 – I am in the legal business so by my own metric I should aim to stay where I am in north London - I could buy the 400k house (which contrary to my prediction/hopes is more like 500k today) without too much trouble but I don’t want to – my reasoning has changed - as above, it’s not necessary because of any concern regarding prices but out of principle – I refuse pay 500k for something that was bought for a small fraction of that a decade ago – maybe I’m cutting off my nose to spite my face but **** it – the 300k I have not spent will buy me x30 amazing holidays over coming years I like cash and the freedom it gives you - I keep 85% in cash - rates are not fantastically high (but then neither is that which I am paying on my mortgage) – in any event, my real ‘loss’ on cash loss is offset by 15% I have in inflationary filth! (including some gold of course –my view is that gold is even more mental than houses – I’m not sure it will do what I want it to do when the time comes but that’s another [very long] story – buy now, think later – didn’t Soros say that?! So I don’t believe house prices have reached a permanently high plateau and will be very surprised if we don’t see a proper crash at some point (if for no other reason than assets don’t generally go up in a straight line) – timing of course is everything and time is a very precious commodity...
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