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TrevorS

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Everything posted by TrevorS

  1. The US took their medicine fast. Would be interesting to see the UK added to the chart.
  2. House prices are sticky. It can years for effects to wear off.
  3. Government agencies now account for 90 percent of the mortgages issued in the United States. We have a lot of catching up to do.
  4. Don't forget business rates. A recent survey of small businesses found almost 1 in 7 paid rates equal to or greater than their rent.
  5. They worked hard. All their lives. Paid their taxes. And never even bought an iPod.
  6. Maybe not, but I don't think it would remain at the current £1m per acre with PP for very long either.
  7. Adam Smith: "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices. It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty or justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary." Published in 1776. Fresh as paint.
  8. Partly depends how leveraged they are. Plus there are no doubt "greater fools" out there who will be drawn in by London property becoming cheaper again, especially if sterling depreciation outpaces PCL HP inflation.
  9. An economist's "model" (we know how good those are), driven by difficult-to-quantify and/or subjective inputs. Which only includes a single completed boom/bust cycle. Nice bit of headline-grabbing though. Comparing London against national measures has becoming increasingly irrelevant as the world has shrunk. It's peers are to be found elsewhere in the global village.
  10. Yes he does seem to have taken up the banner. I don't think he will be asked to pen guest columns on the Telegraph again after this
  11. Yep. People used to look down their noses at Japanese stuff. They didn't realise they were moving up the curve. By the time they did, it was too late. I see the same attitudes to China today.
  12. Not implausible. Hester was pushed by Osborne for either crossing or failing to cross some line or other.
  13. Yes ownership is ultimately backed by the force of the state. But we can minimise the amount of government interference, which took a giant leap forward with the Town and Country Planning Act 1947.
  14. A friend of mine lives in Cobham, in a nice house with large garden, alongside similar. Several years ago the farmland at the back was sold and redeveloped as housing. The housing was higher density than existing, and included social housing. The residents fought bitterly and lost. He was afraid of the change but there have been no problems and now he is reconciled with sharing the land and still lives there. The residents of Esher would have to learn to share. If they can't accept change then they can always move. Relaxing or removing planning restrictions could enable them to recreate thei
  15. As an 83% shareholder in the bank, I suspect Osborne's hand in this.
  16. Detroit was the epicentre for the American auto industry. As the industry declined so did Detroit. It is true they have been re-inventing themselves and new industries are growing there. There are parts of Detroit city where historically crime rates were very high. Levels of poverty and deprivation were also high in those areas. They were also predominantly black areas. But correlation isn't causation. Geographically Windsor may be close but culturally Canada is very far away. I think this is more a tax and pensions issue. Only 53% of households in Detroit are paying their property taxes, w
  17. All they needed to do was take the fledgling Japanese auto industry seriously. They had a graphic warning from the complacency of the British motorcycle industry in the 1960s and early 1970s, who sneered at the funny little machines produced by the likes of Honda. Many poor whites also migrated North from the South.
  18. Bonds, equities etc. Top-rated Sovereign debt has a Basel II risk weighting of zero making it highly attractive for banks to hold, and distorting the market for said debt.
  19. This is one of the great modern sacred cows. There is nothing wrong with encroaching on green belt land. It can be replaced with a green patchwork or green fingers. Suburbs can be green too. Most outer London suburbs have plenty of parks, trees, verges etc. Nick Boles is a man whose time may come. The question is, can he stick to his guns until then? Most politicians like to think of themselves as conviction politicians, until it's squeaky bum time (cf George Osborne).
  20. Minor point but the before TCPA 1947 was The Green Belt (London and Home Counties) Act 1938.
  21. They mean cheap Indian computer programmers to work for the big "solution providers" who charge them out at daily rates several times their cost. Coming to a large (and soon-to-fail) government IT project near you! First they exported the jobs, now they import the competition. Rock and a hard place.
  22. If that's what you really believe why not pile in yourself? Shares are traded freely. Personally I think they have underestimated the strength of change resistance in the UK and have little chance. It's why I also think shale gas explorers will spend a lot of expensive time mostly going nowhere..
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