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Surrey Girl

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  1. It's that lower band which interests me... says a couple of things, I think. Firstly it says that the less expensive first time buyer type houses are the ones which are not selling, which in turn suggests that the second steppers are scuppered because they can't sell... neither of which is news to us, I guess, but it is interesting to see the figures.
  2. That is a very interesting chart... very telling, actually.... you can really see where the stagnation is.... Is the figure on the left in absolute millions or something?
  3. My current view, for what little it may be worth, is that interest rates will not be changing any time in the near or possibly even medium term. Even if the US does start to eek up rates over there, that does not mean a thing in this country. Unless we see steady consistent economic growth for 6 or 8 consecutive quarters (that's 18 months to 2 years) or unless Sterling crashes, there is just no reason to change them. Inflationary factors are external and increasing interest rates will not quell that... in fact, in theory it could add to inflation in quite a serious way. One of the effects
  4. Interest rates are typically increased in order to cool the economy. Our economy hardly needs cooling! The other main reason to increase interest rates is to defend the value of sterling... well, in the context of the world economy, it's a race to the bottom, so that is out of the question. Rampant wage inflation would force up interest rates, but in the usual way of things this would go hand in hand with price inflation as one usually drives the other. Inflationary pressures are currently external for the most part, so fiddling with interest rates wouldn't have much effect in any event.
  5. Following on from this recent article on About Property, I wondered whether the current Stamp Duty thresholds effectively act as a dampener on any potential house price inflation? Houses in the £250K+ bracket are more expensive to buy by many thousands of pounds beyond the actual asking price simply because there is three times as much Stamp Duty to be paid on a house costing £250,000 as there is on a house of £249,999... so instead of having a £2.5K levy, you have a £7.5K levy for a sale price difference of just £1. This, I should imagine, serves to reduce the effective saleable value of ma
  6. Alternatively..... just keep it? Indefinitely....
  7. Not sure that I've seen this posted here yet... http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/latest-news/capital-economics-forecasts-5-drop-in-house-prices-in-2013/1064290.article
  8. Oh... and on that thought... they know full well that if they build lots of houses when demand is low, all they will actually do is flood the market and force prices down. They ain't stupid - unlike the politicians....
  9. Quite right! I have a feeling that these house builders are not stupid... and they ain't short of a bob or two... if they aren't building houses, it's because they know they can't sell them at the price they want. They are better off laying people off and just sitting tight. So long as they build enough high value homes to keep profits up and shareholders happy... they can tick over for years and years and years just picking up more land, getting it through the lengthy approvals process... and waiting for the turnaround. The one thing they do NOT want to do is get caught out with a large i
  10. Everything changes eventually.... if you keep saying the same thing for long enough, then sooner or later you will be right and then you can say "look, see! I've been warning you about this for {weeks/months/years/decades - delete as appropriate according to how long you have been wrong for]" It's the stopped clock thing. So for sure, we can say with 99.9% certainty that interest rates will go up at some point in the future... and probably sooner than we expect And we can also say with similar confidence that they are unlikely to go down from here. So what is he saying that we don't alrea
  11. I think one ought to exercise caution when ever any article uses emotive language in it's headline... like "Fly"
  12. I'm not altogether convinced that the government has any intention of looking too hard at this sort of stuff. I think that as far as they are concerned, failing to collect revenues simply put more money into the private economy. They will take action in order to avoid looking foolish or encouraging people to avoid or even worse evade tax... a few people will have to serve some time I guess... but on the whole, if you are tunring over less than a few million quid, they aren't really very interested just at the moment. And that is why they have reduced the number of inspectors. If they wante
  13. I dunno... I wouldn't say he talks sense, exactly... but at least he acknowledges the problem and seems to realise that the best way to cure a boil is to lance it and get all the puss out, because only then can you start to rebuild value... as opposed to the current trajectory which will result in a lost generation. I met a young girl today... 24 years old... same age as my daughter. Lives in leafy Surrey, not far from me. She has a 2 hour commute every day for work. 20 minute walk to the station, and hour and a half on two trains out to where she works in Hampshire, then ten minute walk fr
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