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House Price Crash Forum

drinks&smokes

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About drinks&smokes

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  1. From own market observations, yes referendum priced in and resulting in further stagnation or drops everywhere apart from the likes of Morningside and the New Town. Noticed a lot of houses on the market this spring going on at prices similar to before the boom looks like a lot of desperate people trying to cash out and flee Scotland hanging on to the back of the Nationwide HPI which yes is happening in England but certainly not Scotland. And as the poles are closing and it's looking like the Yes vote may win prices are dropping just look at the Lothians and ignore the ESPC reports.
  2. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2424110/Deflating-UKs-property-bubble-fears.html Okay it is the Daily hate but as I suspected. None of the properties I have been watching have sold this summer. Sellers are deluded if they think they will get 2007/8 plus prices! Watch the BBC hype on London and SE England believe that applies here too. Wrong.
  3. So we see all the PR hype and prices going up everywhere apparently this summer despite big bad FED possibly cutting back and yet from what I can see the areas and properties that I am keeping an eye on are still on at the same price or less as they were last summer or more. Gorgie, Leith stalled any movement, outlying suburbs not much change, even the student areas not much change from what I can see. What are your thoughts and opinions then people? Should I rush to buy or potentially miss this golden opportunity before a one bed in Gorgie costs £1,000,000? Anyone think the PR hype only applies to England?
  4. On my recent travels about Amercia it has become obvious to me just how little even the educated Americans responsible for investments etc know about the true economic situation in the UK. If and when the foreign investors wake up and realise this we really are in the S**t. I think our MP's and VI's know this and have orchestrated this cordinated PR campaign to get the economy trundling forward again. Once the summer sun fades and retail figures drop then we shall see how good this "recovery" really is. Like many I cannot wait for the hopefuly inevitable bust of house prices but wonder what the social implications are going to be!
  5. A few months ago it was all economic doom and gloom in UK plc. All of a sudden FED announces potential tapering. US 10yr treasury yields are increasing its looking ever likely that US interest rates will continue climbing, which you can interpret one way or another the US housing market was allowed to crash and repair, the real economy is recovering better, the US banks are better recapitalised. All points to US is much better poised to sustain higher interest rates thus attracting investment. All of a sudden UK plc swings magically from gloom to best prosperity ever thanks to what appears to be a cordinated PR campaign. UK - housing crash never allowed to take place really in nominal terms, banks still badly undercapitalised and massively exposed to the EU, massive debts public or private, unfunded social obligations. Seems to me that without the PR good news investors would think the US a better place to put their money and withdraw from UK thus making our situation truely dire. Oh and our recovery is basically using taxpayers money to fund another housing boom to help the banks. Yet if gilts continue to climb interest rates (should) go up borrowers get into difficulties banks repossess but what good is that really for them, so BoE steps in to print more to drive gilts down again, thus weakening sterling. And yet Sterling has made some decent gains in the last few weeks against the dollar! Why? Did I miss something about the real state of the UK economy?
  6. Anyone noting the recent laws passed by the EU recently about creditors having to bail out bad banks know how this will effect offshore accounts held in places like Gurnsey, IOM etc? Recently contacted my bank Nationwide International asking what happens when the parent company gets into trouble I have been told as a subsiduary there is no obligation for the offshore bank to help nor can the UK government impose capital controls over there. I realise that should the storm finally hit there is still nothing to prevent a run on this bank and that there is little chance the IOM can compensate all the despositors but given the economic situation in the UK I know I would rather have my money out of the reach of UK gov plc.
  7. Well I see that the prices are up for the Avenue11 new builds in Gorgie. Prepare to be amazed if you haven't already noticed! I would say traditional tennant 1 beds are holding value this summer but barely and that is with all the FFL and HTS help. Pull the plug and watch the prices continue to decline. And then there are these ridiculous prices. You would have to be either rich or stupid or combination of both to buy there. And if the BTL brigade are going to get in there then consider the following, Rent for 1 bed in the area average 500 a month, 6000 a year. (Apologies no pound sign on foreign keyboard) 1 Bed cost 136000. Annual gross return 4,4% Minus 20% tax which most BTL don't pay so may not need to consider Net return 3,53%. Minus inflation 2,7 - 3 % equals a real return of 0,83 - 0,53% !!!!!! Wow. And the "invested" capital is likely to drop in value too. Poor investment. Thoughts people?
  8. Maybe big things that will hit people will be if interest rates go up I know a few people in Edinburgh only barely making the repayments in Negative Equity and no signifigant equity in their home either. Hopefully for me and others but not them the BOE will get it wrong with QE cause inflation requiring interest rates to go up, or their is a run on the pound because sterling is so weak causing inflation again etc etc. It would be so nice to have the proper sharp correction the Americans had to get the market fixed. If you haven't read this you should, http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/uk/end-of-britain-uk-government-debt-spending-interest-rates take it with a pinch of salt of course but the fundamentals are there.
  9. Should make the pricing of these interesting then, http://www.s1homes.com/Flats-for-sale/2012083001055635.shtml what do you think 1 bed with underground allocated parking space?
  10. Anyone got an idea of what the Avenue 11, 1 bed flats on Roberston Avenue Gorgie are likely to go for? I think these will sell quick new, allocated parking, all existing stock in the area for 1 bed are the old tennants and there's enough on here about them.
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