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Jolly Roger

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Everything posted by Jolly Roger

  1. Complexity...works fine when you have surplus energy and capital to throw at the hard problems, in more constrained times you can't even maintain what you already have let alone add additional layers on top.
  2. How is a wage/price spiral going to run this time round given the lack of unionisation compared to the 70s?
  3. They're leaving California because of a mass shooting on the opposite coast? Trumpian politics? Trump isn't in power. They're leaving California for places like Texas, a gun toting state that's been red for over forty years. And I guess now Portugal too. Will miss playing in the desert and Palm Springs, a rich yuppie enclave that's 80 percent white, unlike California as a whole. Lol but no doubt it's the republicans that caused them to leave places like LA and San Fran, not the gangs and homeless people shooting up and defecating in the street. Funny how these people want to abandon a democratic state that's got more diverse with each passing year?
  4. If I buy stocks or crypto I accept they can go to zero. The value of your property can go up or down, and you may end up owing more on your loan than the property is worth. Sign on the dotted line you mothers.
  5. I've always avoided chlorphenamine due to the Alzheimer's link over long term, also seems harder to come by in most shops. One a day tablets are either Loratidine or Cetirizine, though they prob have long term risks too.
  6. No matter how many books or articles I read I still don't understand inflation in a way that is satisfying. Surely the demand for higher wages in an inflationary environment is just feeding the fire and pushing inflation up further? Obviously a lot of current price rises are cost-push due to shortages in energy, shipping containers etc. And I understand why workers act in a self interested fashion when it comes to asking for above inflationary wage rises, just seems like we are happy with the beast eating two percent of the population a year but if it eats eight percent then something must be done.
  7. Perhaps if the elites didn't frustrate the democratic will of the country, Brexit would have gone differently and Bojo may not have to be elected. I'd say Remainers are as responsible for him being in office if not more so.
  8. In many cases the 2008 recessionary period didn't really feel any different to what came before - people still went to work, bought gadgets and cars and went on foreign holidays. What kind of crash would it take for the majority to notice a real decline in living standards, a proper depression?
  9. Would imagine in the 70s more full fat type foods, butter and lard, suet in puddings, not everything made with vegetable oil, low fat processed frankenfoods etc. More protein and fewer carbs potentially, so even with gigantic Mars bars before shrinkflation probably fewer snacks as a whole, food more expensive so less grazing from cupboards full of treats, longer times between eating and effect on metabolism, plus the walking to school, no driving little prince two miles to the school gate in a 4x4 due to helicopter parenting. Youth entertainment more outside the house, footie and bike rides, playing manhunt around the block. Office may have had a biscuit tin, but no fully stocked vending machines, charity tuckshop filled with flapjacks, no Costa across the road selling you a daily 300 calorie muffin as a "great", guess not everything would be rosy but not entirely grim either
  10. Have any of those "mass graves" been confirmed as such? Looks like a moral panic to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-mystery-of-canada-s-indigenous-mass-graves
  11. Regarding the council tax rebate, what percentage of renters pay it themselves versus the landlord paying it, I wonder? In the latter case, I'm sure the rebate will be passed on to the tenant!
  12. Not sure how trustworthy that "research" is but a 36% YoY drop is a fair bit.
  13. What's the global outlook for an implosion of China's property market and its knock on effects for Chinese GDP?
  14. Good point, I suppose it depends on how bullish you are around how much technological progress can boost productivity to ameliorate a rising cost of energy inputs into economic systems. The dot-com era was the most recent industrial revolution, which has generated huge profits and company valuations even beyond the crash. But a lot of thinkers say progress in tech has been slowing for some time and the generational leaps are smaller. Also how does mass WFH affect the energy equation - savings in petroleum but net positive or negative for e.g. natural gas?
  15. Yeah for my industry it feels similar, like a snow day for a lot of people who when in the office aren't hugely productive. As we enter the "hybrid" model it seems Friday is a popular day to take as WFH for obvious reasons. Though Fridays aren't that busy in the office anyway, with people using flexible working hours to dip out at two or three in the afternoon. I often find myself turning the lights off on the way out on a Friday afternoon not long after five or even before. Feels like the productive minority (20%?) are achieving in and out of the office, as for the rest there is probably a lot of shirking going on at home which is harder to get away with in an open plan office (though you'd be surprised how much time people can spend chatting about BBC news articles or video games).
  16. Harder to get at, more expensive and energy intensive to acquire, i.e. higher energy cost of energy. Economic growth predicated on low EcoE. Not sure I agree with, or fully comprehend, the blogs' theses in their entirety, but there are some interesting arguments laid out around the economy as an energy system, the blind faith in renewables and the lack of energy strategy from the UK government.
  17. Two blogs I've come across since the petrol shortage, the first in a thread here, second linked in the first, both from chaps called Tim. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk Both of the opinion that the economy is driven by availability and net cost of energy, and that without the density of hydrocarbons (getting more expensive to extract) or next gen nuclear (hydrogen takes a lot of energy to harvest) we will be entering sustained phase of degrowth with all the misery that entails.
  18. Did this link get posted? https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/09/26/the-march-of-folly/ Linked from the Tim Morgan SEEDS economic blog. Feels like there should be a thread on the link between energy availability and the economic outlook.
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