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House Price Crash Forum


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About hangers

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    HPC Newbie
  1. estate agent just said people cant buy as prices are not falling quick enough. he also just said its cheaper to rent in most places than buy in the last 18 months! perhaps they are starting to get fed up of lack of sales??
  2. here is a good example: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28357006.html tiny one bed flat, sold in 2007 for 135k worth around 50-60k now, been on the market for 4 years. Zooplas 'zed index' says the average value in the area is £188,743 (just over 2 individuals earning average income 3.5 x earnings) yet the average asking price is £238,744. So even Zoopla think sellers are asking 20% too much. I think the truth is more like 30% overpriced, given that the majority of employed people in Yorkshire are public sector workers, who are understandably nervous about their jobs, issues with lending, cost of living, and no young buyers entering the market (which is set to be much worse with the current university fees) I have been watching the market for around a year now, and most of the properties on sale have been on at least for a year. The smarter sellers are pricing houses at a reasonable level and still selling at more than the property is worth, the greedy ones are sitting at stupid prices as the value of the house continues to drop. I estimate about 5% of the houses on sale are actually taking part in the market, i expect this level to grow as more deaths add to this. the bubble is slowly deflating.
  3. It may be: with the high prices and falling market people are thinking of actually buying a place which will not only suit their current needs, but their needs until the market finally upturns (be that in 10-15 years) So unless the 1 bed flats are dirt cheap, they become redundant for the vast core of first time buyers (main target market) It may be that the amount hitting the market has been linear, but none are actually selling.
  4. It does seem like a trend. Although i think i will need a years data to compare, to next years data to get an idea of seasonal swings. Having the three layers gives me the most accurate idea of asking prices, and movement. All in the BD17 postcode. What i have found interesting is the fluctuations, the total number fluctuates by +/- 5 properties on sale roughly every 14 days. But always seems to return to roughly around 330 total properties on sale (for the last 40 days). I can only assume this is the properties being taken down, re-priced then put up again. some properties go away for a few weeks then come back again. But obviously my data capture only sees the changes when the 0-130k, 130-175k or 175k+ barriers are broken (wish i had collected finer data points so i could of got finer data capture of the market changes) At the moment the important thing is to gather the data. i can get a 135k mortgage, but refuse to buy the crap housing stock at this level, houses start to get reasonable at 175k level, so i'm keen for it to drop to that level, i want a house that will not only suit my limited needs now, but my needs in 4-5 years time. what i find funny, is that you see tiny one bed flats on sale for 125k yet you can buy a three bed house in the same area for 100k (the rare actual sales are the latter). You wonder what goes through the sellers minds. Having spoken to estate local estate agents, they are getting increasingly frustrated by the sellers, the houses which are actually taking part of the market (the three bed 100k house) was obviously through the death of the previous owner (the decour). lucky i am in my early 20's and unlike the older generation i think i can wait longer to buy than many of that generation can wait to sell. On a septate note, large houses cost a lot to heat + energy prices rising + older generation, i wonder if we will get a cold winter this year.
  5. I have been tracking the delusional prices on Rightmove for Baildon. I have been watching the price ranges from 0-130k, 130k-175k and 175k+ i have been watching the houses on offer, in these ranges. As I wont buy until average houses reach reasonable income multiples. Given the local incomes i calculated that (when i started gathering information 40 days ago) that when 175k range houses reach 130k the market will be reasonable again. When added to a chart you get three layers of prices, im watching the 0-130k range grow, only when this reaches a stage when it covers the same amount of market at the 175k covered will i consider buying. Even over this short period of time houses are clearly falling in value. on 24/08/12 the market was this: 0-130k made up = 16% 130-175k made up = 23% 175+ made up = 61% today (13/10/12) the market now looks like this: 0-130k made up = 18% 130 - 175k made up= 21% 175+ made up = 61% It seems the top of the market is being very stubborn, but the middle range is slowly giving in, if this middle range is loosing 2% of the market every 40 days it will only take another year and a bit for this range to be reasonable again. Fingers crossed! the delusion in the local housing market is a bit depressing, but its nice to see houses selling when actually priced to be sold, many poor quality houses are sitting effectively not taking part in the market at stupid amounts. I will report back when i get more info, and i figure out how to upload the charts. Regards Hangers
  6. anyone know what the current delusion index is in the BD17 postcode? seems to be many flats stuck not selling. Take this example: i think it sold in 2007 for 135k, been on the market years and is overpriced at 91k. heres the link: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28357006.html
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